John Middlekauff· Jul 31, 2025
In a long mailbag, Middlekauff picked the 49ers to win the NFC West, said he'd lean toward Matt Stafford starting Week 1 despite real concern about the elbow, stuck with Daniel Jones as the Colts' starting quarterback over Anthony Richardson, expected Omarion Hampton to start and put up big rookie numbers with Offensive Rookie of the Year on the table, and thought Denver could win 11-12 games.
“I don't think it's outrageous to go offensive rookie of the year.”
said on air or in an interview · The Herd with Colin Cowherd (podcast) · read the original →
The page this came from has changed since we captured it on Aug 5, 2026. The quote and evidence above are from our capture, not from what the page says today.
8 checkable claims — 3 depth chart calls, 2 player season numbers, 1 award pick, 1 division winner and 1 season win total — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing bet.
It names 8 players and teams, each linked to their own record.
All 8 have settled, averaging 41.5 out of 100, against 52.1 for a naive guess at the same calls.
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Who this take is about
8 checkable claims in this take
Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.
- Division WinnersSan Francisco 49ersJul 31, 2025
San Francisco 49ers to win the division
“I want the Niners to win the division... I'm gonna I was gonna bet on the Niners to win the division anyway.”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skillHow this was scored
- skill:
- 0
- method:
- division winners read off the bracket: the bye teams and the wild-card hosts
- they picked:
- SF
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 0
- the naive pick:
- LAR
- difficulty:
- 2
- the naive guess:
- last season's winner of the same division
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- won the division:
- no
Omarion Hampton to be 1st on the depth chart
“So Hampton was gonna start over him regardless... So I think Hardball would ride Hampton like a like secretariat”
Hit · 92Scored 91.67a naive guess scored 100-16.67 skillHow this was scored
- club:
- LAC
- skill:
- -16.67
- player:
- Omarion Hampton
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 91.67
- baseline:
- 100
- position:
- RB
- naive slot:
- 2
- actual slot:
- 2
- difficulty:
- 2
- measured by:
- rushing yards
- the naive guess:
- no prior season — a rookie is assumed to start behind the incumbent
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- predicted slot:
- 1
- weeks left when called:
- 18
Matthew Stafford to be 1st on the depth chart
“does Matt Stafford start Week one? I would lean yes, even though I have no more information than anyone else”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skillHow this was scored
- club:
- LAR
- skill:
- 0
- player:
- Matthew Stafford
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 100
- position:
- QB
- naive slot:
- 1
- actual slot:
- 1
- difficulty:
- 2
- measured by:
- passing yards
- the naive guess:
- where he sat last season
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- predicted slot:
- 1
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- Award PicksOmarion HamptonLos Angeles ChargersJul 31, 2025
Omarion Hampton to win Offensive Rookie of the Year
“I don't think it's outrageous to go offensive rookie of the year... So I would say offensive Rookie of the Year would be on the table for sure.”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skillHow this was scored
- award:
- offensive_rookie_of_the_year
- naive:
- the naive pick was Jayden Daniels, who won it the year before
- skill:
- 0
- player:
- Omarion Hampton
- season:
- 2025
- winner:
- Tetairoa McMillan
- correct:
- no
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 0
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- Season Win TotalsDenver BroncosJul 31, 2025
Denver Broncos to finish with 11 wins
“I think the Bronx is gonna be pretty good. And if he's good and you have an elite defense, they're gonna win eleven twelve games.”
Close · 40Scored 40a naive guess scored 5+70 skillHow this was scored
- team:
- DEN
- naive:
- 9.25
- skill:
- 70
- what happened:
- 14
- season:
- 2025
- zero at:
- 5
- accuracy:
- 40
- baseline:
- 5
- predicted:
- 11
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- Depth Chart CallsDaniel JonesIndianapolis ColtsJul 31, 2025
Daniel Jones to be 1st on the depth chart
“I will stick with what I said. I think Daniel Jones gonna be the starting quarterback.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skillHow this was scored
- club:
- IND
- skill:
- 0
- player:
- Daniel Jones
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 100
- position:
- QB
- naive slot:
- 1
- actual slot:
- 1
- difficulty:
- 2
- measured by:
- passing yards
- the naive guess:
- where he sat last season
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- predicted slot:
- 1
- weeks left when called:
- 18
Omarion Hampton to record 1,300 rushing yards
“Could Hampton be a thirteen hundred yard rusher and have ten plus touchdowns because he's it's pretty freaking good.”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 39-78 skillHow this was scored
- naive:
- 378.78
- skill:
- -78
- what happened:
- 545
- player:
- Omarion Hampton
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 39
- predicted:
- 1300
- statistic:
- rushing_yards
- difficulty:
- 2
- last season:
- no prior season
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- position average:
- 378.78
- zero at percent out:
- 50
Omarion Hampton to record 10 rushing tds
“Could Hampton be a thirteen hundred yard rusher and have ten plus touchdowns”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 72.63-145.26 skillHow this was scored
- naive:
- 4.63
- skill:
- -145.26
- what happened:
- 4
- player:
- Omarion Hampton
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 72.63
- predicted:
- 10
- statistic:
- rushing_tds
- difficulty:
- 2
- last season:
- no prior season
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- position average:
- 4.63
- zero at percent out:
- 50
What others said about the same people
- Chris SimmsScore Predictions · San Francisco 49ersHit · 88Simms went through the entire Week 3 slate with straight-up winners and predicted final scores, taking Jacksonville, Buffalo, Cincinnati, Detroit, Houston, Carolina, Kansas City, Seattle, the Giants, Baltimore, New Orleans, Minnesota, San Francisco, Denver and Philadelphia. He also expected Zay Flowers and Puka Nacua to sit, Kyler Murray to play, and said Marvin Harrison Jr. projects as no better than a good No. 2 or high-end No. 3 receiver.
- Chris LongGame Outcome Picks · Los Angeles RamsMiss · 0Long liked the Rams over the Broncos on Sunday night even without Puka Nacua, and expected the Bills to beat the winless Chargers in Buffalo. He also backed the Bengals over the Steelers, expected an angry Detroit team to handle the Jets, and still thought both the Lions and Vikings could win the NFC North.
- Steven RuizGame Outcome Picks · Denver BroncosHit · 100Previewing Week 3, Ruiz picked the Ravens to beat the Cowboys in Brazil, Jacksonville over New England in a low-scoring game, an upset by the Broncos over the Rams, the Raiders over the Saints, the Eagles over the Bears, the Lions over the Jets, and his Hail Mary that Houston beats Indianapolis by two touchdowns.
- Nate TiceGame Outcome Picks · Denver BroncosHit · 100Tice matched his guest on every Week 3 game, picking the Ravens over the Cowboys, the Jaguars over the Patriots in a close game, the Broncos to upset the Rams, the Raiders over the Saints, the Eagles over the Bears and the Lions over the Jets.
- Sam MonsonGame Outcome Picks · Los Angeles ChargersMiss · 0Monson picked the Chargers to beat the Bills outright (jokingly crediting Buffalo's gray 'Nickel City' jerseys), took the Vikings to win outright in Tampa, and said Seattle would destroy Washington. He also reiterated his Super Bowl pick of Denver over the Rams, called the Dolphins destined for the No. 1 overall pick, and said the Saints are a worst-to-first candidate in the NFC South.
- Matt HarmonGame Outcome Picks · Los Angeles RamsHit · 100Harmon picked the Bengals to beat the Texans in Week 2, expecting Nico Collins to miss the game with a hamstring injury, and also predicted the Titans would be shut out by the Eagles. He took the Rams over the Giants, the Bears over the Vikings, and the Jaguars at Denver.
More depth chart calls
The same kind of call, about other players and teams.
- Fox SportsDepth Chart Calls · Michael Penix Jr.Hit · 100Fox Sports states that a healthy Tua Tagovailoa will serve as Atlanta's backup quarterback in Week 3, with Michael Penix Jr. handling the starting duties against Green Bay.
- Pat FitzmauriceDepth Chart Calls · Aaron JonesHit · 100In previewing the 10 most intriguing fantasy performers of Week 2, Fitzmaurice expects Atlanta's quarterback problems to persist with Tua Tagovailoa unlikely to play and Michael Penix Jr. not ready to return, flags Falcons slot corner Billy Bowman Jr. as a possible Week 2 returnee, and describes Aaron Jones as Minnesota's lead back and Kaelon Black as the clear backup to Christian McCaffrey in San Francisco.
- Matt SeveranceDepth Chart Calls · Deshaun WatsonHit · 100The CBS Sports preview backs Tampa Bay to beat Cleveland in the Bucs' Week 2 home opener, and states that Deshaun Watson — not Shedeur Sanders — will be Cleveland's starting quarterback in Week 2.
- Rafael ZamoranoDepth Chart Calls · Deshaun WatsonHit · 100Zamorano reports Watson will start Week 2 at Tampa Bay and suggests there's little reason to expect improvement, raising the possibility Watson's five-year contract never yields more than single-digit wins.
- Rich HribarDepth Chart Calls · Tua TagovailoaMiss · 0Hribar expects Tua Tagovailoa to be Atlanta's starting quarterback for Week 2 while Michael Penix stays out, with Penix's return closer to Week 4. He is unenthusiastic about the Falcons' offense either way and treats Bryce Young as a fringe fantasy starter.
- Bradley LockerDepth Chart Calls · Carson WentzHit · 100PFF's unsigned adjusted power rankings after Week 1 of the 2026 season place the Bills first, the Rams second and the Dolphins last, with notes on quarterback situations in Seattle, Minnesota and Cleveland.