John Middlekauff#48 of 87 NFL pundits · Jul 31, 2025

In a long mailbag, Middlekauff picked the 49ers to win the NFC West, said they'd lean toward Matt Stafford starting Week 1 despite real concern about the elbow, stuck with Daniel Jones as the Colts' starting quarterback over Anthony Richardson, expected Omarion Hampton to start and put up big rookie numbers with Offensive Rookie of the Year on the table, and thought Denver could win 11-12 games.

Said on air or in an interview · 3 and Out with John Middlekauff (podcast)Hear the original

3 of 8calls landed3 hits · 1 close call · 4 misses · all settled

41.5Average accuracyout of 100, across 8 calls

52.1A naive guessthe same calls, no knowledge

8 of 8Settlednone still waiting

#48John Middlekauff’s rankof 87 ranked NFL pundits

What John Middlekauff said

our reading, beside the words we read it from

I don't think it's outrageous to go offensive rookie of the year.

John Middlekauff, the lead quote · each call’s own words are below

Where it was said: 3 and Out with John Middlekauff (podcast)
The episode: 3 and Out - Top QB/Coach Combos, Will Stafford Injury Derail Rams? Biggest Draft BUST, Rookie RB’s, Any Hope For The Jets?
The original: Hear the original
Read it wrong?: Tell us and we will look

The page this came from has changed since we captured it on Aug 5, 2026. The quote and evidence here are from our capture, not from what the page says today.

SaidJul 31, 2025
GradedAug 5–17, 2026

1San Francisco 49ers to win the division“I want the Niners to win the division... I'm gonna I was gonna bet on the Niners to win the division anyway.”
2Omarion Hampton to be 1st on the depth chart“So Hampton was gonna start over him regardless... So I think Hardball would ride Hampton like a like secretariat”
3Matthew Stafford to be 1st on the depth chart“does Matt Stafford start Week one? I would lean yes, even though I have no more information than anyone else”
4Omarion Hampton to win Offensive Rookie of the Year“I don't think it's outrageous to go offensive rookie of the year... So I would say offensive Rookie of the Year would be on the table for sure.”
5Denver Broncos to finish with 11 wins“I think the Bronx is gonna be pretty good. And if he's good and you have an elite defense, they're gonna win eleven twelve games.”
6Daniel Jones to be 1st on the depth chart“I will stick with what I said. I think Daniel Jones gonna be the starting quarterback.”
7Omarion Hampton to record 1,300 rushing yards“Could Hampton be a thirteen hundred yard rusher and have ten plus touchdowns because he's it's pretty freaking good.”
8Omarion Hampton to record 10 rushing tds“Could Hampton be a thirteen hundred yard rusher and have ten plus touchdowns”

Box score

HitCloseMissWaiting

Call	Kind	What happened	Score	Naive	Skill
San Francisco 49ers to win the division¹	Division Winners	—	0	0	0
Omarion Hampton to be 1st on the depth chart²	Depth Chart Calls	No. 2	91.67	100	−16.67
Matthew Stafford to be 1st on the depth chart³	Depth Chart Calls	No. 1	100	100	0
Omarion Hampton to win Offensive Rookie of the Year⁴	Award Picks	Tetairoa McMillan won	0	0	0
Denver Broncos to finish with 11 wins⁵	Season Win Totals	14	40	5	+70
Daniel Jones to be 1st on the depth chart⁶	Depth Chart Calls	No. 1	100	100	0
Omarion Hampton to record 1,300 rushing yards⁷	Player Season Numbers	545	0	39	−78
Omarion Hampton to record 10 rushing tds⁸	Player Season Numbers	4	0	72.63	−145.26
8 calls · 3 hits · 1 close call · 4 misses · all settled			41.5	52.1

How each call scored

a naive guessbetter than naiveworse than naive

8 checkable claims — 3 depth chart calls, 2 player season numbers, 1 award pick, 1 division winner and 1 season win total — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call.

It names 8 players and teams, each linked to their own record.

All 8 have settled, averaging 41.5 out of 100, against 52.1 for a naive guess at the same calls.

Each call is scored 0 to 100 against what happened, on its own, by the published methodology. The naive guess is what knowing nothing would have scored on the same calls; the gap, weighted by how hard the call was, is the skill.

1Division Winners San Francisco 49ers
San Francisco 49ers to win the division
VerdictMiss
0Miss · naive 0
0this call0a naive guess0better than naive2difficulty0skill
How this was scored
skill:
0
method:
division winners read off the bracket: the bye teams and the wild-card hosts
they picked:
SF
season:
2025
accuracy:
0
baseline:
0
the naive pick:
LAR
difficulty:
2
the naive guess:
last season's winner of the same division
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
18
won the division:
no
Think this is wrong?
2Depth Chart Calls Omarion Hampton Los Angeles Chargers
Omarion Hampton to be 1st on the depth chart
What happenedNo. 2called No. 1 · by rushing yards
91.67Hit · naive 100
91.67this call100a naive guess−8.33worse than naive2difficulty−16.67skill
How this was scored
club:
LAC
skill:
−16.67
player:
Omarion Hampton
season:
2025
accuracy:
91.67
baseline:
100
position:
RB
naive slot:
2
actual slot:
2
difficulty:
2
measured by:
rushing yards
the naive guess:
no prior season — a rookie is assumed to start behind the incumbent
weeks in the season:
18
predicted slot:
1
weeks left when called:
18
Think this is wrong?
3Depth Chart Calls Matthew Stafford Los Angeles Rams
Matthew Stafford to be 1st on the depth chart
What happenedNo. 1called No. 1 · by passing yards
100Hit · naive 100
100this call100a naive guess0better than naive2difficulty0skill
How this was scored
club:
LAR
skill:
0
player:
Matthew Stafford
season:
2025
accuracy:
100
baseline:
100
position:
QB
naive slot:
1
actual slot:
1
difficulty:
2
measured by:
passing yards
the naive guess:
where he sat last season
weeks in the season:
18
predicted slot:
1
weeks left when called:
18
Think this is wrong?
4Award Picks Omarion Hampton Los Angeles Chargers
Omarion Hampton to win Offensive Rookie of the Year
What happenedTetairoa McMillan woncalled Omarion Hampton
0Miss · naive 0
0this call0a naive guess0better than naive2difficulty0skill
How this was scored
award:
offensive_rookie_of_the_year
naive:
the naive pick was Jayden Daniels, who won it the year before
skill:
0
player:
Omarion Hampton
season:
2025
who won:
Tetairoa McMillan
correct:
no
accuracy:
0
baseline:
0
difficulty:
2
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
18
Think this is wrong?
5Season Win Totals Denver Broncos
Denver Broncos to finish with 11 wins
What happened14called 11
40Close · naive 5
40this call5a naive guess35better than naive2difficulty+70skill
How this was scored
team:
DEN
naive:
9.25
skill:
70
what happened:
14
season:
2025
zero credit this far off:
5
accuracy:
40
baseline:
5
they said:
11
difficulty:
2
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
18
Think this is wrong?
6Depth Chart Calls Daniel Jones Indianapolis Colts
Daniel Jones to be 1st on the depth chart
What happenedNo. 1called No. 1 · by passing yards
100Hit · naive 100
100this call100a naive guess0better than naive2difficulty0skill
How this was scored
club:
IND
skill:
0
player:
Daniel Jones
season:
2025
accuracy:
100
baseline:
100
position:
QB
naive slot:
1
actual slot:
1
difficulty:
2
measured by:
passing yards
the naive guess:
where he sat last season
weeks in the season:
18
predicted slot:
1
weeks left when called:
18
Think this is wrong?
7Player Season Numbers Omarion Hampton Los Angeles Chargers
Omarion Hampton to record 1,300 rushing yards
What happened545called 1,300
0Miss · naive 39
0this call39a naive guess−39worse than naive2difficulty−78skill
How this was scored
naive:
378.78
skill:
−78
what happened:
545
player:
Omarion Hampton
season:
2025
accuracy:
0
baseline:
39
they said:
1300
statistic:
rushing_yards
difficulty:
2
last season:
no prior season
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
18
position average:
378.78
zero at percent out:
50
Think this is wrong?
8Player Season Numbers Omarion Hampton Los Angeles Chargers
Omarion Hampton to record 10 rushing tds
What happened4called 10
0Miss · naive 72.63
0this call72.63a naive guess−72.63worse than naive2difficulty−145.26skill
How this was scored
naive:
4.63
skill:
−145.26
what happened:
4
player:
Omarion Hampton
season:
2025
accuracy:
0
baseline:
72.63
they said:
10
statistic:
rushing_tds
difficulty:
2
last season:
no prior season
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
18
position average:
4.63
zero at percent out:
50
Think this is wrong?
All
The take as a whole
the average of 8 settled calls, each counted once
41.5naive 52.1

Who this take is about

Make your own calls.Pick every open claim on Picks →

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