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Tyler Sullivan· Oct 29, 2026

Sullivan's Week 8 upset alert column flags five favorites he expects to lose: he picks the Falcons over the Buccaneers, the Raiders over the Jets, the undefeated Vikings over the Lions, the Ravens (with Lamar Jackson returning) over the Bills, and the Browns over the Steelers.

“Now, it's time to look forward to Week 8 and identify a handful of favorites who are officially on upset alert.”

published in writing · CBS Sports · read the original →

4 checkable claims — 3 game outcome picks and 1 availability call — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call.

It names 5 players and teams, each linked to their own record.

3 of 4 have settled so far, averaging 33.3 out of 100, against 66.7 for a naive guess at the same calls.

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Who this take is about

The games in this take

4 checkable claims in this take

Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing. Game calls show that game’s closing betting line under their grade: a dated fact from nflverse, for context and never part of a grade. MissedTakes takes no bets and earns nothing from any sportsbook.

  • Game Outcome PicksLas Vegas RaidersOct 29, 2026

    Las Vegas Raiders to beat New York Jets

    “With a better effort from the defense, the Raiders offense has the pieces in place to put up points and roll into MetLife Stadium and pull off the upset.”

    Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+161 skill
    How this was scored
    won:
    LV
    score:
    38-33
    skill:
    161
    they picked:
    LV
    season:
    2026
    accuracy:
    100
    baseline:
    0
    the naive pick:
    NYJ
    difficulty:
    1.61
    weeks in the season:
    18
    weeks left when called:
    11

    Closing line (Nov 1): Jets by 1.5 · a toss-up, Raiders 47%, Jets 53%.

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  • Game Outcome PicksCleveland BrownsOct 29, 2026

    Cleveland Browns to beat Pittsburgh Steelers

    “Cleveland Browns (+3.5) at Pittsburgh Steelers ... if this game is close in the final minutes, he's shown an ability to pull out the win. ... I do wonder if the Steelers will be a little gassed in this contest after flying back from Paris”

    Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 100-161 skill
    How this was scored
    won:
    PIT
    score:
    6-27
    skill:
    −161
    they picked:
    CLE
    season:
    2026
    accuracy:
    0
    baseline:
    100
    the naive pick:
    PIT
    difficulty:
    1.61
    weeks in the season:
    18
    weeks left when called:
    11

    Closing line (Nov 1): Steelers by 3.5 · underdog pick, Browns 36%. Graded on who won, not on the spread.

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  • Game Outcome PicksMinnesota VikingsOct 29, 2026

    Minnesota Vikings to beat Detroit Lions

    “Minnesota Vikings (+3) at Detroit Lions ... Really, this could come down to Detroit's poor defense and the Vikings' middling offense. ... Since 2015, teams that are 6-0 or better as underdogs are 4-1 straight up.”

    Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 100-161 skill
    How this was scored
    won:
    DET
    score:
    15-19
    skill:
    −161
    they picked:
    MIN
    season:
    2026
    accuracy:
    0
    baseline:
    100
    the naive pick:
    DET
    difficulty:
    1.61
    weeks in the season:
    18
    weeks left when called:
    11

    Closing line (Nov 1): Lions by 3 · underdog pick, Vikings 40%. Graded on who won, not on the spread.

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  • Availability CallsLamar JacksonBaltimore RavensOct 29, 2026

    “The Ravens QB is slated to make his return after missing the last three games due to an ankle injury. ... he nearly played last week, so I think we're going to get something pretty close to a fully healthy version (Week 8)”

    Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.

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