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John Breech· Aug 24, 2026

The unsigned newsletter author says Deshaun Watson will start Week 1 at Jacksonville, notes he voted for Jaxson Dart as his breakout QB rather than Caleb Williams, and says newly signed Daniel Carlson is the favorite to win the Saints' kicking job.

“I voted for Jaxson Dart as my breakout QB.”

published in writing · CBS Sports · read the original →

2 checkable claims — 2 depth chart calls — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing bet.

It names 4 players and teams, each linked to their own record.

1 of 2 have settled so far, averaging 100 out of 100, against 0 for a naive guess at the same calls.

Of the 1 unsettled call enough other pundits have weighed in on, this one lands below the rest of the room.

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Who this take is about

The game in this take

2 checkable claims in this take

Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.

  • Deshaun Watson to be 1st on the depth chart

    “This means Watson will be the starting quarterback in Week 1 when the Browns travel to Jacksonville to face the Jaguars”

    Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+200 skill
    How this was scored
    club:
    CLE
    week:
    1
    skill:
    200
    player:
    Deshaun Watson
    season:
    2026
    claimed:
    he starts
    accuracy:
    100
    baseline:
    0
    position:
    QB
    reported:
    named the starter
    settled by:
    a confirmed report from the crawl (reported outcomes)
    difficulty:
    2
    the naive guess:
    no prior season — a rookie is assumed to start behind the incumbent
    weeks in the season:
    18
    weeks left when called:
    18

    Think this is wrong?

  • Daniel Carlson to be 1st on the depth chart

    “The former All-Pro kicker instantly becomes the favorite to win the job”

    Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.

    Think this is wrong?

What others said about the same people

More depth chart calls

The same kind of call, about other players and teams.

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