Andrew Erickson· Feb 5, 2026
Erickson takes the Patriots with the points and thinks they win the Super Bowl outright, says Jaxon Smith-Njigba will most likely win Offensive Player of the Year, and makes Treveon Henderson catching at least one pass his best bet.
“I'm taking the Patriots with the points at plus four and a half, and ultimately I think that they're going to win this game.”
said on air or in an interview · The Herd with Colin Cowherd (podcast) · read the original →
The page this came from has changed since we captured it on Aug 5, 2026. The quote and evidence above are from our capture, not from what the page says today.
4 checkable claims — 1 award pick, 1 game outcome pick, 1 player season number and 1 super bowl pick — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing bet.
It names 4 players and teams, each linked to their own record.
All 4 have settled, averaging 37.5 out of 100, against 3.5 for a naive guess at the same calls.
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Who this take is about
4 checkable claims in this take
Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba to win Offensive Player of the Year
“JSN is gonna win Offensive Player of the Year most likely for a reason because he's really freaking good”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+100 skillHow this was scored
- award:
- offensive_player_of_the_year
- naive:
- the naive pick was Saquon Barkley, who won it the year before
- skill:
- 100
- player:
- Jaxon Smith-Njigba
- season:
- 2025
- winner:
- Jaxon Smith-Njigba
- correct:
- yes
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 0
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 0
TreVeyon Henderson to record 1 receptions
“Travvon Henderson to go over half a reception... Henderson is going to catch at least one pass. I think he's gonna catch more than one pass actually”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 14.14-14.14 skillHow this was scored
- naive:
- 19.97
- skill:
- -14.14
- what happened:
- 35
- player:
- TreVeyon Henderson
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 14.14
- predicted:
- 1
- statistic:
- receptions
- difficulty:
- 1
- last season:
- no prior season
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- position average:
- 19.97
- zero at percent out:
- 50
- Super Bowl PicksNew England PatriotsFeb 5, 2026
New England Patriots to win the Super Bowl
“I'm taking the Patriots with the points at plus four and a half, and ultimately I think that they're going to win this game... I think that there's a lot of value on the Patriots just to win outright.”
Close · 50Scored 50a naive guess scored 0+50 skillHow this was scored
- skill:
- 50
- they picked:
- NE
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 50
- baseline:
- 0
- champion:
- SEA
- runner up:
- NE
- the naive pick:
- PHI
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- Game Outcome PicksNew England PatriotsFeb 5, 2026
New England Patriots to beat Seahawks
“So I just I like the Patriots of them money line.”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skillHow this was scored
- won:
- SEA
- score:
- 29-13
- skill:
- 0
- they picked:
- NE
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 0
- the naive pick:
- NE
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 0
What others said about the same people
- Chris SimmsGame Outcome Picks · Seattle SeahawksHit · 100Simms went through every Week 2 game with predicted final scores, picking the Texans, Bears, Steelers (as an upset), Packers, Ravens, Eagles, Buccaneers, Panthers, Jaguars, Seahawks, Cowboys, 49ers, Chargers, Chiefs and Rams to win. He also reiterated that Denver was his preseason Super Bowl pick while predicting the Broncos would fall to 0-2.
- Chris LongGame Outcome Picks · New England PatriotsHit · 100Previewing Week 2, Long called New England a spot to bounce back against Pittsburgh, projected a 27-14 Patriots win, saw Eagles-Titans as a 23-10 grinder, liked the Rams' spot Monday night against the Giants, and wrote down a Bills 31, Lions 23 final for the Thursday nighter.
- Green Light with Chris LongScore Predictions · New England PatriotsClose · 69A co-host floated Week 2 final scores — a 17-13 Patriots win over Pittsburgh and a 27-10 Rams win over the Giants on Monday night — plus a Bills 34, Lions 26 Thursday night score, and referred to Joey Porter as a soon-to-be New York Giant.
- Brandon CarneyTrade and Signing Calls · Austin EkelerMiss · 0Carney drafted a team of rookies he expects to make an immediate fantasy impact (headlined by Karnell Tate and Makai Lemon), predicted landing spots for the remaining big-name free agents, and gave way-too-early division winners, wild cards and award picks — Patriots, Chargers, Bengals, Jaguars, Eagles, Rams, Vikings and Saints as division champs with Joe Burrow as MVP.
- Chris SimmsScore Predictions · Seattle SeahawksMiss · 31Simms went through the entire Week 3 slate with straight-up winners and predicted final scores, taking Jacksonville, Buffalo, Cincinnati, Detroit, Houston, Carolina, Kansas City, Seattle, the Giants, Baltimore, New Orleans, Minnesota, San Francisco, Denver and Philadelphia. He also expected Zay Flowers and Puka Nacua to sit, Kyler Murray to play, and said Marvin Harrison Jr. projects as no better than a good No. 2 or high-end No. 3 receiver.
- Connor RogersGame Outcome Picks · Seattle SeahawksMiss · 0Rogers picked Detroit, Houston, Carolina, Kansas City, Seattle and the Giants to win their Week 3 games, saying the Chiefs win by two touchdowns and the Giants by a field goal.
More game outcome picks
The same kind of call, about other players and teams.
- Connor RogersGame Outcome Picks · Los Angeles RamsHit · 100Rogers made his own Week 2 calls, taking the Packers, Eagles (by at least 10), Panthers (by at least a field goal), Cowboys (by at least six), Chargers, Chiefs and Rams to win. He also noted Baltimore was his Super Bowl pick and said it wouldn't shock him if Jacksonville hosted the AFC Championship Game.
- Chris LongGame Outcome Picks · Los Angeles RamsHit · 100Previewing Week 2, Long called New England a spot to bounce back against Pittsburgh, projected a 27-14 Patriots win, saw Eagles-Titans as a 23-10 grinder, liked the Rams' spot Monday night against the Giants, and wrote down a Bills 31, Lions 23 final for the Thursday nighter.
- Connor RogersGame Outcome Picks · Buffalo BillsHit · 100Rogers predicted the Bills would beat the Lions in their new stadium on Thursday night, winning by a touchdown.
- Phil SimmsGame Outcome Picks · New York GiantsMiss · 0Phil Simms said the Giants can hang with and beat the Rams in their Monday night matchup, citing the Rams' sluggish showing in Australia and the Giants' offensive versatility.
- Connor RogersGame Outcome Picks · New York GiantsHit · 100Rogers picked Detroit, Houston, Carolina, Kansas City, Seattle and the Giants to win their Week 3 games, saying the Chiefs win by two touchdowns and the Giants by a field goal.
- Chris LongGame Outcome Picks · Cincinnati BengalsMiss · 0Long liked the Rams over the Broncos on Sunday night even without Puka Nacua, and expected the Bills to beat the winless Chargers in Buffalo. He also backed the Bengals over the Steelers, expected an angry Detroit team to handle the Jets, and still thought both the Lions and Vikings could win the NFC North.