Nick Wright· Sep 27, 2025
The host (Speaker 1, unnamed in the transcript) laid out his five Week 4 plays and several leans on games he was passing on, most firmly backing Minnesota over Pittsburgh in Dublin and Kansas City to beat Baltimore at home, while also leaning Green Bay at Dallas, Philadelphia at Tampa, the Rams over Indianapolis and Buffalo over New Orleans.
“I mean, Mahomes doesn't lose to Lamar.”
said on air or in an interview · The Herd with Colin Cowherd (podcast) · read the original →
The page this came from has changed since we captured it on Aug 5, 2026. The quote and evidence above are from our capture, not from what the page says today.
4 checkable claims — 4 game outcome picks — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing bet.
It names 4 players and teams, each linked to their own record.
All 4 have settled, averaging 62.5 out of 100, against 87.5 for a naive guess at the same calls.
Where do you stand? Pick this and every open claim on Picks →
Who this take is about
4 checkable claims in this take
Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.
- Game Outcome PicksKansas City ChiefsSep 27, 2025
Kansas City Chiefs to beat Baltimore
“I mean, Mahomes doesn't lose to Lamar... I believe the Chiefs are better than Baltimore... I'll take the Chiefs here.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skillHow this was scored
- won:
- KC
- score:
- 20-37
- skill:
- 0
- they picked:
- KC
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 100
- the naive pick:
- KC
- difficulty:
- 1.83
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 15
- Game Outcome PicksMinnesota VikingsSep 27, 2025
Minnesota Vikings to beat Pittsburgh
“I love Minnesota laying a field laying less than a field goal... So I love Minnesota minus two and a half.”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 100-183 skillHow this was scored
- won:
- PIT
- score:
- 21-24
- skill:
- -183
- they picked:
- MIN
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 100
- the naive pick:
- PIT
- difficulty:
- 1.83
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 15
- Game Outcome PicksBuffalo BillsSep 27, 2025
Buffalo Bills to beat New Orleans
“Buffalo can dominate this game and should dominate this game”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skillHow this was scored
- won:
- BUF
- score:
- 19-31
- skill:
- 0
- they picked:
- BUF
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 100
- the naive pick:
- BUF
- difficulty:
- 1.83
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 15
- Game Outcome PicksGreen Bay PackersSep 27, 2025
Green Bay Packers to beat Dallas
“If I had to bet a side here, I would definitely bet green Bay... I think that a blowout is far more likely than a Dallas victory.”
Close · 50Scored 50a naive guess scored 50+0 skillHow this was scored
- won:
- tie
- score:
- 40-40
- skill:
- 0
- they picked:
- GB
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 50
- baseline:
- 50
- the naive pick:
- DAL
- difficulty:
- 1.83
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 15
What others said about the same people
- Chris SimmsScore Predictions · Kansas City ChiefsHit · 100Simms went through the entire Week 3 slate with straight-up winners and predicted final scores, taking Jacksonville, Buffalo, Cincinnati, Detroit, Houston, Carolina, Kansas City, Seattle, the Giants, Baltimore, New Orleans, Minnesota, San Francisco, Denver and Philadelphia. He also expected Zay Flowers and Puka Nacua to sit, Kyler Murray to play, and said Marvin Harrison Jr. projects as no better than a good No. 2 or high-end No. 3 receiver.
- Connor RogersGame Outcome Picks · Kansas City ChiefsHit · 100Rogers picked Detroit, Houston, Carolina, Kansas City, Seattle and the Giants to win their Week 3 games, saying the Chiefs win by two touchdowns and the Giants by a field goal.
- Chris LongGame Outcome Picks · Buffalo BillsHit · 100Long liked the Rams over the Broncos on Sunday night even without Puka Nacua, and expected the Bills to beat the winless Chargers in Buffalo. He also backed the Bengals over the Steelers, expected an angry Detroit team to handle the Jets, and still thought both the Lions and Vikings could win the NFC North.
- Chris SimmsScore Predictions · Green Bay PackersMiss · 10Simms picked the Packers to beat the Falcons in the Thursday night game by a low score, expecting a defensive struggle.
- Sam MonsonGame Outcome Picks · Minnesota VikingsHit · 100Monson picked the Chargers to beat the Bills outright (jokingly crediting Buffalo's gray 'Nickel City' jerseys), took the Vikings to win outright in Tampa, and said Seattle would destroy Washington. He also reiterated his Super Bowl pick of Denver over the Rams, called the Dolphins destined for the No. 1 overall pick, and said the Saints are a worst-to-first candidate in the NFC South.
- Jake ArthurScore Predictions · Kansas City ChiefsHit · 98Arthur expects a close Chiefs win on Sunday Night Football at Arrowhead, predicting a final score of 27-23 for Kansas City.
More game outcome picks
The same kind of call, about other players and teams.
- Connor RogersGame Outcome Picks · New York GiantsHit · 100Rogers picked Detroit, Houston, Carolina, Kansas City, Seattle and the Giants to win their Week 3 games, saying the Chiefs win by two touchdowns and the Giants by a field goal.
- Chris LongGame Outcome Picks · Cincinnati BengalsMiss · 0Long liked the Rams over the Broncos on Sunday night even without Puka Nacua, and expected the Bills to beat the winless Chargers in Buffalo. He also backed the Bengals over the Steelers, expected an angry Detroit team to handle the Jets, and still thought both the Lions and Vikings could win the NFC North.
- Steven RuizGame Outcome Picks · Las Vegas RaidersHit · 100Previewing Week 3, Ruiz picked the Ravens to beat the Cowboys in Brazil, Jacksonville over New England in a low-scoring game, an upset by the Broncos over the Rams, the Raiders over the Saints, the Eagles over the Bears, the Lions over the Jets, and his Hail Mary that Houston beats Indianapolis by two touchdowns.
- Nate TiceGame Outcome Picks · Baltimore RavensHit · 100Tice matched his guest on every Week 3 game, picking the Ravens over the Cowboys, the Jaguars over the Patriots in a close game, the Broncos to upset the Rams, the Raiders over the Saints, the Eagles over the Bears and the Lions over the Jets.
- Sam MonsonGame Outcome Picks · Seattle SeahawksMiss · 0Monson picked the Chargers to beat the Bills outright (jokingly crediting Buffalo's gray 'Nickel City' jerseys), took the Vikings to win outright in Tampa, and said Seattle would destroy Washington. He also reiterated his Super Bowl pick of Denver over the Rams, called the Dolphins destined for the No. 1 overall pick, and said the Saints are a worst-to-first candidate in the NFC South.
- Nate TiceGame Outcome Picks · New England PatriotsHit · 100Tice picked the Bengals over the Texans in a low-scoring game, the Jaguars at Denver, the Bears over the Vikings, the Patriots over the Steelers and the Rams to edge the Giants, and his Hail Mary was the Cowboys scoring 40 on Washington. He also floated Abdul Carter as a possible All-Pro.