Falcons 45, Saints 24: Right About the Winner, Missed the Blowout
Atlanta's 45-24 win in New Orleans on Monday night settled 32 graded calls we'd tracked on this game — winner picks and exact score predictions alike. The room split 13-10 in favor of the Falcons among the 23 pundits whose latest call counted, so the plurality had it right. Nobody, though, saw a 21-point rout coming. The room's average accuracy on this one was 35 out of 100, and the median predicted score had New Orleans losing by all of two points.
The calls worth naming
Richard Sherman didn't bother with a score, just a plain instruction: "Give me Atlanta on the road." That's the most valuable kind of right answer this site tracks — the naive default for any game is to pick the home team, and the Saints were that default. Taking the Falcons instead and watching them win by three touchdowns graded out at 100 accuracy and a 183 skill score, the kind of number that only comes from being right against the grain. It also extends a real trend: Sherman's outcome picks are running 74.18% accurate across 58 graded calls this season, so this wasn't a lucky one-off, it's the pattern.
Among those who put a number on it, nobody beat Garrett Chapman and Scott Kennedy, who both missed the final margin by 14 points — Chapman with Falcons 24-17, Kennedy with Falcons 27-20. Both are still a long way from 45-24, but in a room that averaged a 35, missing by 14 was the best anyone did. Kennedy's record is worth a caveat: he's graded on far more roster-spot calls (10, all hits) than score predictions — this was effectively his third graded score call, so treat it as an encouraging data point, not a trend.
Here's the cleaner way to see how lopsided the read was: of the 19 pundits who named an exact score, the 12 closest calls were all Falcons picks. Every single pundit who predicted a Saints win — all seven of them — missed by more than any Falcons backer did.
The misses, by name
Jared Dubin backed the Saints to win 28-20, the single worst score call in the room (missed by 29 points, 19.05 accuracy). It fits a pattern rather than breaking one: Dubin's score predictions are running 45.88% accurate across 51 graded calls this season, with a collective skill score of -6.1 in that category — below what picking home teams blind would get you. This game didn't do him any favors.
A few other misses came with style points, for what that's worth. Bobby Kownack and Grant Gordon both had New Orleans sealing the win with a blocked punt returned for a touchdown — a vivid detail that simply didn't happen. Mitchell Eisenstein expected "a vintage Saints offense" behind Tyler Shough; instead Atlanta scored 45. All three graded to zero, in line with picking the wrong side outright.
What it does to the bigger picture
This result lands awkwardly for some preseason reads on both clubs. John Breech projected Atlanta at 6-11 this year and Bill Moton had the Falcons at 5-12; a 45-point road outing doesn't prove those wrong on its own, but it's a hard data point to explain away. On the other side, New Orleans optimism — John Middlekauff calling the Saints "a nine-win team," Colin Cowherd taking the over on 7.5 wins — looks tougher to square with a 21-point home loss, though there's plenty of season left to sort out who's closer to right. Division and playoff calls that have Atlanta winning the NFC South now have one more data point in their favor, too.
For the season-long picture on both clubs, the Falcons and Saints team pages carry the full set of calls we're tracking, and the leaderboard shows where Sherman, Dubin and the rest of this room rank once the whole season is weighed in.