Packers 23, Cowboys 13: The Eight Who Picked Dallas All Lost
Drafted by a language model from MissedTakes' graded data, then reviewed and approved by Ben Garves before publishing. How our posts are made
Green Bay beat Dallas 23-13 at Lambeau Field in Week 6, and the pundits we track split lopsidedly for the winner. Of the 30 pundits who made a call on this game, 22 took the Packers and 8 took the Cowboys, and the eight who sided with Dallas went 0 for 8. Across 36 graded calls settling the game, the field's average accuracy came out to 67.
Who picked Green Bay, and who picked Dallas?
Twenty-two of the 30 pundits we tracked had Green Bay, and all 22 were right. The eight who had Dallas were Nick Wright, Chris Broussard, Mitch Goldich, John Breech, Michael Irvin, Jeff Cavanaugh, Clarence Hill and Danny Parkins, and none of them were right. A lean that lopsided isn't much of a story when the favored side wins comfortably, which the Packers did by 10.
Which score call came closest to the final margin?
Chris Simms and Garrett Podell both called Green Bay by exactly 10 points, the margin the game actually produced. Simms said it plainest on his show: "I I like the Packers all the way in this one. I'm gonna say thirty four twenty four Packers." Podell's pick, "Pick: Packers 34, Cowboys 24," landed on the identical score. Neither predicted the actual final (23-13), but both nailed the 10-point margin, and both were scored accordingly: 100 accuracy and a skill mark of 40.33, well above picking the favorite and hoping.
Behind them, Jared Dubin had Green Bay by 5 (three separate times, across three appearances, all graded identically), Pete Prisco had Green Bay by 4, and Jordan Dajani had Green Bay by 3. All three picked the right side and landed closer to the final margin than a coin flip would, without matching Simms and Podell's precision.
| Pundit | Predicted score | Packers margin called | Off by |
|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Simms | Packers 34-24 | +10 | 0 |
| Garrett Podell | Packers 34-24 | +10 | 0 |
| Jared Dubin | Packers 33-28 | +5 | 5 |
| Pete Prisco | Packers 31-27 | +4 | 6 |
| Jordan Dajani | Packers 27-24 | +3 | 7 |
| John Breech | Cowboys 30-27 | -3 | 13 |
| Tyler Sullivan | Cowboys 27-24 | -3 | 13 |
Who had Dallas, and how far off were they?
Every pundit who predicted a Cowboys win missed, and two of the eight missed by a specific, quotable margin. Nick Wright explained his reasoning on air: "So I am not as confident in the Packers pass defense as Greg in this particular matchup. And so I like the Cowboys." Chris Broussard picked Dallas "simply because of that, but they're more desperate." Both calls were graded 0 accuracy with a skill mark of -172, the standard penalty for backing the side that lost outright.
Three of the eight Dallas calls weren't fresh picks at all. Michael Irvin, John Breech, Jeff Cavanaugh, Clarence Hill and Danny Parkins had all penciled in a Cowboys win over Green Bay back in August or early September, as part of season-long, game-by-game forecasts that are now wrong on at least this one result.
| Pundit | What they said, and when |
|---|---|
| Michael Irvin | Had Dallas 5-1 with a Week 6 win at Green Bay (Sep. 2 and Sep. 5) |
| Jeff Cavanaugh | Had Dallas 5-1, beating the Packers in Week 6 (Sep. 3) |
| Clarence Hill | Picked an 11-6 Cowboys season with a Week 6 win over Green Bay (Sep. 3) |
| Danny Parkins | Picked an 11-6 Cowboys season including a win at Green Bay (Aug. 13) |
| John Breech | Picked the Cowboys to hand Green Bay its first loss, twice in August, then again with a score call on Oct. 13 |
| Nick Wright | Took the Cowboys outright two days before kickoff (Oct. 16) |
| Chris Broussard | Took the Cowboys outright two days before kickoff (Oct. 16) |
| Mitch Goldich | Took the Cowboys in a full Week 6 slate of picks (Oct. 15) |
Does this extend or break anyone's streak?
Michael Irvin's Cowboys call fits a season-long pattern: his game outcome picks sit at 37.5% accuracy on 16 graded calls, with a negative skill mark of -50, well below his already modest 50% overall accuracy across 18 graded calls. This loss isn't an outlier for him on game outcomes; it's close to his average.
John Breech's miss here cuts the other way. His overall record is established and solid: 53.59% accuracy across 160 graded calls, built mostly on score predictions. But his game outcome picks specifically sit at 41.79% on 41 graded calls, a weaker lane for him, and three separate Cowboys-over-Packers calls across two months is the clearest example of that lane on this site.
Chris Simms' hit stands out against his own history. His score predictions average 52% accuracy with a negative skill mark of -12.88 across 53 graded calls, meaning this exact-margin call is a sharp exception for a pundit whose score picks have mostly broken even or worse.
What does this mean for the rest of each team's season?
The Packers' game outcome picks have hit 63.5% of the time across 69 graded calls this season, and their playoff-berth calls have gone 100% on 25 graded picks; nothing in this result complicates that. The Cowboys have been a tougher team to back: their game outcome picks sit at just 21.5% across 79 graded calls, and their playoff-berth calls have landed at only 14.3% across 14 graded calls, with a skill mark of -154. A tidy home loss to Green Bay doesn't change those numbers, but it's one more result pointing the same direction. The Packers and Cowboys team pages carry the full picture, and the leaderboard shows where this week's winners and losers rank overall.