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Writes at Around the NFL (podcast)
Across 43 graded calls in 9 articles, Matt Harmon scores 77.81% accuracy and a MissedTakes Score of 47.41, which means their calls were better than a naive guess on the same claims.
That is a provisional record, fewer than ten graded articles, so the numbers are not yet meaningful and they are not ranked on the leaderboard.
How accurate are NFL experts overall? →
Every number here is computed from the published methodology, and every call below opens to its own arithmetic.
All 68 calls · one square per call
30hits70% of graded
2Close5%
11misses26%
25
How much better than a naive guess on the same claims. This is the ranking.
43 graded calls in 9 articles, newest first — page 1 of 2. Every take from Matt Harmon, including the ones still waiting →
Game calls show that game’s closing betting line under their grade: a dated fact from nflverse, for context and never part of a grade. MissedTakes takes no bets and earns nothing from any sportsbook.
The same 87, by how often their calls landed, with no credit for difficulty.
Matt Harmon isn’t ranked yet: a record is ranked from 10 graded articles, so a lucky first handful can’t top the table.
Denver Broncos to beat Panthers
“Yeah. I think I'm gonna take the Broncos based on that discussion that we just had there.”
Closing line (Nov 8): Broncos by 3 · favorite pick, Broncos 58%.
Green Bay Packers to beat Patriots
“I'll go Packers here. I don't really like the way the, Patriots offense matches up against this defense.”
Closing line (Nov 8): Patriots by 3 · underdog pick, Packers 38%.
Chicago Bears to beat Bucks
“I think I trust the Bucks' offense the least of the three here... So, yeah, I'll take the bears here.”
Closing line (Nov 8): Bears by 6.5 · favorite pick, Bears 71%.
Buffalo Bills to beat Vikings
“I will take, the Bills here to win the game... I definitely trust the offense with, Josh Allen more so than the other one across the field.”
Closing line (Nov 9): Bills by 3 · favorite pick, Bills 62%.
San Francisco 49ers to beat Raiders
“Who are you predicting here? Gee. I wonder who Yeah. I'll go niners.”
Closing line (Nov 8): 49ers by 8.5 · favorite pick, 49ers about 3 in 4 (77%).
Detroit Lions to beat Vikings
“I will take the lions here. Just at home, and I I just don't trust the Vikings offense.”
Closing line (Nov 1): Lions by 3 · favorite pick, Lions 60%.
Kansas City Chiefs to beat Broncos
“I'll go Chiefs, win here... So I I think the Chiefs win this one.”
Closing line (Nov 1): Broncos by 1.5 · a toss-up, Chiefs 50%, Broncos 50%.
Baltimore Ravens to beat bills
“I'll go Ravens here. I think there are... I think the Lamar back, Derrick Henry, Cam Juergens now”
Closing line (Nov 1): Bills by 3 · underdog pick, Ravens 41%.
Detroit Lions to score 21 against Vikings
“Enough spots to pick at here where I think the Lions can put up 21 points”
Atlanta Falcons to beat Bucks
“So I'll go Falcons here, get a win on the road, and they're four and four.”
Closing line (Nov 1): Buccaneers by 2.5 · underdog pick, Falcons 46%.
Seattle Seahawks to beat bears
“I'm gonna take Seattle to win in this game primarily because I think they can force just maybe one or two mistakes on defense.”
Closing line (Nov 2): Seahawks by 3 · favorite pick, Seahawks 60%.
Cleveland Browns to beat Steelers
“I'll go Cleveland just because we've been samey this whole time... So I'll go for the Browns just to be different.”
Closing line (Nov 1): Steelers by 3.5 · underdog pick, Browns 36%.