Skip to main content
MissedTakes
Menu

Matt Harmon· Oct 29, 2026

Harmon picked Seattle over Chicago, Detroit over Minnesota, Cleveland over Pittsburgh, Baltimore over Buffalo, Atlanta over Tampa Bay and Kansas City over Denver, and predicted the Lions would score 21 points against the Vikings. His Hail Mary is that Commanders rookie receiver Antonio Williams goes for 100 yards against the Eagles.

“Antonio Williams is gonna do it again for a 100 yards, in this one.”

said on air, transcribed by us · Football 301 with Nate Tice (podcast) · read the original →

7 checkable claims — 6 game outcome picks and 1 score prediction — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call.

It names 6 players and teams, each linked to their own record.

All 7 have settled, averaging 28.6 out of 100, against 84.5 for a naive guess at the same calls.

Where do you stand? Pick this and every open claim on Picks →

Who this take is about

The games in this take

7 checkable claims in this take

Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing. Game calls show that game’s closing betting line under their grade: a dated fact from nflverse, for context and never part of a grade. MissedTakes takes no bets and earns nothing from any sportsbook.

  • Game Outcome PicksSeattle SeahawksOct 29, 2026

    Seattle Seahawks to beat bears

    “I'm gonna take Seattle to win in this game primarily because I think they can force just maybe one or two mistakes on defense.”

    Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skill
    How this was scored
    won:
    CHI
    score:
    34-17
    skill:
    0
    they picked:
    SEA
    season:
    2026
    accuracy:
    0
    baseline:
    0
    the naive pick:
    SEA
    difficulty:
    1.61
    weeks in the season:
    18
    weeks left when called:
    11

    Closing line (Nov 2): Seahawks by 3 · favorite pick, Seahawks 60%.

    Think this is wrong?

  • Game Outcome PicksKansas City ChiefsOct 29, 2026

    Kansas City Chiefs to beat Broncos

    “I'll go Chiefs, win here... So I I think the Chiefs win this one.”

    Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 100-161 skill
    How this was scored
    won:
    DEN
    score:
    24-28
    skill:
    −161
    they picked:
    KC
    season:
    2026
    accuracy:
    0
    baseline:
    100
    the naive pick:
    DEN
    difficulty:
    1.61
    weeks in the season:
    18
    weeks left when called:
    11

    Closing line (Nov 1): Broncos by 1.5 · a toss-up, Chiefs 50%, Broncos 50%.

    Think this is wrong?

  • Game Outcome PicksDetroit LionsOct 29, 2026

    Detroit Lions to beat Vikings

    “I will take the lions here. Just at home, and I I just don't trust the Vikings offense.”

    Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skill
    How this was scored
    won:
    DET
    score:
    15-19
    skill:
    0
    they picked:
    DET
    season:
    2026
    accuracy:
    100
    baseline:
    100
    the naive pick:
    DET
    difficulty:
    1.61
    weeks in the season:
    18
    weeks left when called:
    11

    Closing line (Nov 1): Lions by 3 · favorite pick, Lions 60%.

    Think this is wrong?

  • Game Outcome PicksBaltimore RavensOct 29, 2026

    Baltimore Ravens to beat bills

    “I'll go Ravens here. I think there are... I think the Lamar back, Derrick Henry, Cam Juergens now”

    Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 100-161 skill
    How this was scored
    won:
    BUF
    score:
    10-36
    skill:
    −161
    they picked:
    BAL
    season:
    2026
    accuracy:
    0
    baseline:
    100
    the naive pick:
    BUF
    difficulty:
    1.61
    weeks in the season:
    18
    weeks left when called:
    11

    Closing line (Nov 1): Bills by 3 · underdog pick, Ravens 41%.

    Think this is wrong?

  • Score PredictionsDetroit LionsOct 29, 2026

    Detroit Lions 21 — Vikings ?

    “Enough spots to pick at here where I think the Lions can put up 21 points”

    Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 91.61+13.52 skill
    How this was scored
    score:
    15-19
    skill:
    13.52
    they picked:
    DET
    season:
    2026
    accuracy:
    100
    baseline:
    91.61
    difficulty:
    1.61
    weeks in the season:
    18
    actual margin:
    4
    weeks left when called:
    11
    naive home margin:
    0.47

    Think this is wrong?

  • Game Outcome PicksAtlanta FalconsOct 29, 2026

    Atlanta Falcons to beat Bucks

    “So I'll go Falcons here, get a win on the road, and they're four and four.”

    Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 100-161 skill
    How this was scored
    won:
    TB
    score:
    0-16
    skill:
    −161
    they picked:
    ATL
    season:
    2026
    accuracy:
    0
    baseline:
    100
    the naive pick:
    TB
    difficulty:
    1.61
    weeks in the season:
    18
    weeks left when called:
    11

    Closing line (Nov 1): Buccaneers by 2.5 · underdog pick, Falcons 46%.

    Think this is wrong?

  • Game Outcome PicksCleveland BrownsOct 29, 2026

    Cleveland Browns to beat Steelers

    “I'll go Cleveland just because we've been samey this whole time... So I'll go for the Browns just to be different.”

    Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 100-161 skill
    How this was scored
    won:
    PIT
    score:
    6-27
    skill:
    −161
    they picked:
    CLE
    season:
    2026
    accuracy:
    0
    baseline:
    100
    the naive pick:
    PIT
    difficulty:
    1.61
    weeks in the season:
    18
    weeks left when called:
    11

    Closing line (Nov 1): Steelers by 3.5 · underdog pick, Browns 36%.

    Think this is wrong?

What others said about the same people

More game outcome picks

The same kind of call, about other players and teams.

Discussed alongside these