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Writes at Tangle (newsletter)
Across 4 graded calls in 2 articles, Rick Moran scores 100% accuracy and a MissedTakes Score of 91.8, which means their calls were better than a naive guess on the same claims.
That is a provisional record, fewer than ten graded articles, so the numbers are not yet meaningful and they are not ranked on the leaderboard.
How accurate are election pundits overall? →
Every number here is computed from the published methodology, and every call below opens to its own arithmetic.
All 4 calls · one square per call
4hits100% of graded
How much better than a naive guess on the same claims. This is the ranking.
No kind has five graded calls yet, so none is rated.
4 graded calls in 2 articles, newest first.
“Realistically, Republicans should end up with a 52 or 53 seat majority.”
The same 21, by how often their calls landed, with no credit for difficulty.
Rick Moran isn’t ranked yet: a record is ranked from 10 graded articles, so a lucky first handful can’t top the table.
“The question has never been, will the GOP win a majority in the senate? The question has always been, how big will that majority end up being”
“The question has never been, ‘Will the GOP win a majority in the Senate?’ The question has always been, ‘How big will that majority end up being'”
“Realistically, Republicans should end up with a 52-53 seat majority.”