Tangle (newsletter)

“The GOP is virtually guaranteed to lose at least one Senate seat it currently holds: Facing threats from Trump that he would back a primary challenger, North Carolina Senator Thom Tillis dropped his race for reelection.”

I predicted that Trump would win the election but lose Pennsylvania... I'm also not feeling so moved as to abandon my initial call.

Based on information I had two weeks ago, I predicted that Trump would win the election but lose Pennsylvania... But I'm also not feeling so moved as to abandon my initial call. I just think Trump has more paths to the presidency, and so I'm hanging tight for the final 48 hours.

I knew that not endorsing wasn't going to change the outcome of the vote in California, where Harris has a healthy lead.

I predicted Trump will win Michigan, and Harris's struggles with Muslim and Arab-American voters are a big reason why. ... In that edition, I predicted Harris was on track to lose Michigan.

Democratic pollster Simon Rosenberg said the election is still “far more likely to break for” Harris than Trump... I still think we are where I have believed we have been for weeks now — favored to win.

They are polling ahead of Republicans in battleground Senate races (but will likely lose their majority because of how many seats they are defending)

These are all significant and critical advantages, which is why I think Trump will ultimately win the election .