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Rick MoranOct 17, 2024

Moran argues the only open question is the size of the Republican Senate majority, which they expect to end up at 52 or 53 seats.

Said on air, transcribed by us · Tangle (podcast)Hear the original

2 of 2calls landed2 hits · all settled
100Average accuracyout of 100, across 2 calls
10A naive guessthe same calls, no knowledge
2 of 2Settlednone still waiting
0Waitingnot graded yet

What Rick Moran said

our reading, beside the words we read it from
Realistically, Republicans should end up with a 52 or 53 seat majority.
Rick Moran, the lead quote · each call’s own words are below
Where it was said
Tangle (podcast)
The episode
SPECIAL EDITION: The Senate races.
The original
Hear the original
Read it wrong?
Tell us and we will look
  1. SaidOct 17, 2024
  2. Election DayNov 5, 2024
  3. GradedOct 9, 2026
  1. 1Seat Counts“Realistically, Republicans should end up with a 52 or 53 seat majority.”
  2. 2Control of Congress“The question has never been, will the GOP win a majority in the senate? The question has always been, how big will that majority end up being”

Box score

HitCloseMissWaiting
VerdictCallKindWhat happenedScoreNaiveSkill
“Realistically, Republicans should end up with a 52 or 53 seat…”1Seat Counts5310020+81.6
“The question has never been, will the GOP win a majority in the…”2Control of Congress—1000+102
2 calls · 2 hits · all settled10010

How each call scored

a naive guessbetter than naive

2 checkable claims — 1 control of congres and 1 seat count — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call.

All 2 have settled, averaging 100 out of 100, against 10 for a naive guess at the same calls.

Each call is scored 0 to 100 against what happened, on its own, by the published methodology. The naive guess is what knowing nothing would have scored on the same calls; the gap, weighted by how hard the call was, is the skill.

  1. 1Seat Counts

    “Realistically, Republicans should end up with a 52 or 53 seat majority.”

    What happened53called a 52 or 53 seat majority
    100Hit · naive 20
    100this call20a naive guess80better than naive1.02difficulty+81.6skill
    How this was scored
    election year:
    2024
    party:
    Republican
    seats after:
    53
    skill:
    81.6
    topic:
    elections
    what happened:
    53
    in their words:
    a 52 or 53 seat majority
    read as:
    as written
    result from:
    senate: United States Senate, Party Division (https://www.senate.gov/history/partydiv.htm)
    chamber:
    2024-senate
    what they counted:
    seats held
    accuracy:
    100
    baseline:
    20
    days before the vote when called:
    18
    difficulty:
    1.02
    seats before:
    49
    the naive guess:
    no change from the previous election
    Election Day:
    2024-11-05
    their range:
    52 to 53
    the naive guess said:
    49
    Think this is wrong?

  2. 2Control of Congress

    “The question has never been, will the GOP win a majority in the senate? The question has always been, how big will that majority end up being”

    VerdictHit
    100Hit · naive 0
    100this call0a naive guess100better than naive1.02difficulty+102skill
    How this was scored
    right:
    yes
    election year:
    2024
    skill:
    102
    topic:
    elections
    result from:
    senate: United States Senate, Party Division (https://www.senate.gov/history/partydiv.htm)
    chamber:
    2024-senate
    who controls it:
    Republican
    accuracy:
    100
    baseline:
    0
    they said:
    Republican
    days before the vote when called:
    18
    difficulty:
    1.02
    the naive guess:
    the party in control going in keeps it
    Election Day:
    2024-11-05
    who controlled it before:
    Democratic
    Think this is wrong?
  3. All

    The take as a whole

    the average of 2 settled calls, each counted once

    100naive 10
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More control of congress

The same kind of call, about other players and teams.