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Rick MoranOct 17, 2024

Moran argues the only open question is the size of the Republican Senate majority, which they expect to land at 52-53 seats.

Published in writing · Tangle (newsletter)Read the original

2 of 2calls landed2 hits · all settled
100Average accuracyout of 100, across 2 calls
10A naive guessthe same calls, no knowledge
2 of 2Settlednone still waiting
0Waitingnot graded yet

What Rick Moran said

our reading, beside the words we read it from
Realistically, Republicans should end up with a 52-53 seat majority.
Rick Moran, the lead quote · each call’s own words are below
Where it was published
Tangle (newsletter)
The piece
SPECIAL EDITION: The state of play in 7 key Senate races.
The original
Read the original
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  1. SaidOct 17, 2024
  2. Election DayNov 5, 2024
  3. GradedOct 9, 2026
  1. 1Control of Congress“The question has never been, ‘Will the GOP win a majority in the Senate?’ The question has always been, ‘How big will that majority end up being'”
  2. 2Seat Counts“Realistically, Republicans should end up with a 52-53 seat majority.”

Box score

HitCloseMissWaiting
VerdictCallKindWhat happenedScoreNaiveSkill
“The question has never been, ‘Will the GOP win a majority in…”1Control of Congress—1000+102
“Realistically, Republicans should end up with a 52-53 seat…”2Seat Counts5310020+81.6
2 calls · 2 hits · all settled10010

How each call scored

a naive guessbetter than naive

2 checkable claims — 1 control of congres and 1 seat count — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call.

All 2 have settled, averaging 100 out of 100, against 10 for a naive guess at the same calls.

Each call is scored 0 to 100 against what happened, on its own, by the published methodology. The naive guess is what knowing nothing would have scored on the same calls; the gap, weighted by how hard the call was, is the skill.

  1. 1Control of Congress

    “The question has never been, ‘Will the GOP win a majority in the Senate?’ The question has always been, ‘How big will that majority end up being'”

    VerdictHit
    100Hit · naive 0
    100this call0a naive guess100better than naive1.02difficulty+102skill
    How this was scored
    right:
    yes
    election year:
    2024
    skill:
    102
    topic:
    elections
    result from:
    senate: United States Senate, Party Division (https://www.senate.gov/history/partydiv.htm)
    chamber:
    2024-senate
    who controls it:
    Republican
    accuracy:
    100
    baseline:
    0
    they said:
    Republican
    days before the vote when called:
    18
    difficulty:
    1.02
    the naive guess:
    the party in control going in keeps it
    Election Day:
    2024-11-05
    who controlled it before:
    Democratic
    Think this is wrong?

  2. 2Seat Counts

    “Realistically, Republicans should end up with a 52-53 seat majority.”

    What happened53called a 52-53 seat majority
    100Hit · naive 20
    100this call20a naive guess80better than naive1.02difficulty+81.6skill
    How this was scored
    election year:
    2024
    party:
    Republican
    seats after:
    53
    skill:
    81.6
    topic:
    elections
    what happened:
    53
    in their words:
    a 52-53 seat majority
    read as:
    as written
    result from:
    senate: United States Senate, Party Division (https://www.senate.gov/history/partydiv.htm)
    chamber:
    2024-senate
    what they counted:
    seats held
    accuracy:
    100
    baseline:
    20
    days before the vote when called:
    18
    difficulty:
    1.02
    seats before:
    49
    the naive guess:
    no change from the previous election
    Election Day:
    2024-11-05
    their range:
    52 to 53
    the naive guess said:
    49
    Think this is wrong?
  3. All

    The take as a whole

    the average of 2 settled calls, each counted once

    100naive 10
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More control of congress

The same kind of call, about other players and teams.