Skip to main content
MissedTakes
Menu

2026 U.S. House election in California's district 1

House · November 3, 2026 · called

The ballot

The race is called; the shares are final once the result is certified.

Mike McGuire by — in the general · held by the Republican party going in · flipped · source: wikipedia-2026

Beside the pundits

Two outside readings of the same race, never graded: what the market prices and what the polls average. The pundits' calls are read against them, not scored by them.

The polls · VoteHub · 1 poll in 21 days · through October 28, 2026

  • Mike McGuire54.0%
  • James Gallagher40.0%

Mike McGuire by 14.0 on average. The latest poll from each pollster in the window, averaged line by line; sponsors and partisan polls are listed below so a reader can weigh them.

The 1 most recent poll
PollsterDatesSampleResult
University of Southern California Democracy and Fair Elections Lab/University of Southern California Dornsife Center for Economic and Social Research · for University of Southern California Center for the Political Future2026-10-22 – 2026-10-28439 LVMike McGuire 54% · James Gallagher 40%

The field, week by week

Each pundit's latest pick as of each week's end, so a bar is the room as it stood that week — not how many calls were made.

Oct 11Oct 18Oct 25Nov 1Nov 8
Mike McGuire 1· 1 pundits on record this week

What the field called

Who the pundits on record picked to win, most picked first.

Every claim about this race (1)

Newest first. A winner call is graded once the race is called and confirmed; a margin or share once the result is certified.

More 2026 races

Every 2026 race