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2026 California gubernatorial election

Governors · November 3, 2026 · not yet held

The ballot

Beside the pundits

Two outside readings of the same race, never graded: what the market prices and what the polls average. The pundits' calls are read against them, not scored by them.

The market · Polymarket · October 3, 2026

  • Xavier Becerra96¢
  • Steve Hilton4¢

A price in cents is the market's probability. Prices move; this is the day's close as we read it.

The polls · VoteHub · 3 polls in 21 days · through September 20, 2026

  • Xavier Becerra55.7%
  • Steve Hilton34.0%

Xavier Becerra by 21.7 on average. The latest poll from each pollster in the window, averaged line by line; sponsors and partisan polls are listed below so a reader can weigh them.

The 5 most recent polls
PollsterDatesSampleResult
SurveyUSA · for KGTV (San Diego), The San Diego Union Tribune2026-09-15 – 2026-09-20742 LVXavier Becerra 55% · Steve Hilton 33%
UC Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies · for Los Angeles Times2026-09-15 – 2026-09-204512 LVXavier Becerra 58% · Steve Hilton 33%
University of California Berkeley Jack Citrin Center for Public Opinion Research/Verasight/TrueDot · for Politico2026-09-11 – 2026-09-161983 LVXavier Becerra 54% · Steve Hilton 36%
UC Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies · for Los Angeles Times2026-08-03 – 2026-08-092310 LVXavier Becerra 55% · Steve Hilton 37%
Kreate Strategies2026-06-13 – 2026-06-17900 LVXavier Becerra 58% · Steve Hilton 33%

What the field called

Who the pundits on record picked to win, most picked first.

Every claim about this race (3)

Newest first. A grade appears once the result is certified and the claim is scored.