Kyle Kondik· Oct 8, 2026
Kondik's Crystal Ball ratings put 214 House districts at least leaning Democratic and 201 at least leaning Republican, with his best overall guess around 230 Democratic seats, and the Senate at 49 at least Leans D and 47 at least Leans R. He also made four House rating changes, favoring Democrats in NE-2 and FL-25, while keeping Fitzpatrick favored in PA-1 and downgrading Steil in WI-1 to Leans Republican.
“Our best overall guess as of today would probably put the Democrats around 230 seats, give or take.”
published in writing · Sabato's Crystal Ball (UVA Center for Politics) · read the original →
16 checkable claims — 11 race winners and 5 seat counts — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call.
None of them have settled yet — they grade once their results are in.
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16 checkable claims in this take
Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.
- Race WinnersOct 8, 2026
“We continue to rate PA-1 as Leans Republican, and we still feel OK about that assessment.”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
- Race WinnersOct 8, 2026
“Of districts impacted by redistricting, CA-1, CA-41, and UT-1 are all rated Safe Democratic.”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
- Seat CountsOct 8, 2026
“Our best overall guess as of today would probably put the Democrats around 230 seats, give or take.”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
- Seat CountsOct 8, 2026
“HOUSE : 214 at least Leans D, 201 at least Leans R, 20 Toss-ups.”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
- Race WinnersOct 8, 2026
“Of districts impacted by redistricting, CA-1, CA-41, and UT-1 are all rated Safe Democratic.”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
- Seat CountsOct 8, 2026
“SENATE : 49 at least Leans D, 47 at least Leans R, 4 Toss-ups.”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
- Race WinnersOct 8, 2026
“we're moving WI-1 from Likely Republican to Leans Republican”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
- Seat CountsOct 8, 2026
“HOUSE : 214 at least Leans D, 201 at least Leans R, 20 Toss-ups.”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
- Race WinnersOct 8, 2026
“Of districts impacted by redistricting, CA-1, CA-41, and UT-1 are all rated Safe Democratic.”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
- Race WinnersOct 8, 2026
“We are moving the race from Leans Democratic to Likely Democratic.”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
- Race WinnersOct 8, 2026
“We are moving this race from Toss-up to Leans Democratic.”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
- Race WinnersOct 8, 2026
“Rep. Kevin Kiley (I, CA-6), a former Republican turned independent following a Democratic gerrymander, is in a Likely Democratic race in a Harris +8.5 Sacramento-area district.”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
- Race WinnersOct 8, 2026
“The open CA-48 in southern California is a Leans Democratic flip.”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
- Race WinnersOct 8, 2026
“We currently favor Democrats in all of the Harris-won seats they currently hold, although Reps. Adam Gray (D, CA-13) and Laura Gillen (D, NY-4) are in only very marginal Harris seats.”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
- Seat CountsOct 8, 2026
“SENATE : 49 at least Leans D, 47 at least Leans R, 4 Toss-ups.”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
- Race WinnersOct 8, 2026
“We currently favor Democrats in all of the Harris-won seats they currently hold, although Reps. Adam Gray (D, CA-13) and Laura Gillen (D, NY-4) are in only very marginal Harris seats.”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
More race winners
The same kind of call, about other players and teams.
- Jim GeraghtyRace WinnersMiss · 0Geraghty said Republicans would clearly win the House, but with a majority in the twenties rather than a 40-50 seat wave, and that the GOP would take the Senate by about one seat. He called Budd, Vance and Johnson winners in their Senate races, Kiggans a winner in Virginia's 2nd, Fetterman the likely winner in Pennsylvania, Laxalt the safer GOP bet in Nevada, and liked Walker's odds in a Georgia runoff.
- Megyn KellyRace WinnersHit · 100Kelly predicted Republicans would win control of the House, that Ron Johnson would hold Wisconsin given Mandela Barnes' record on crime, and that JD Vance would win in Ohio.
- Tom BevanRace WinnersHit · 100Bevan said Republicans would still take the House and would win the Senate by a margin of one or two seats, that Oz would fall short in Pennsylvania, and gave expected winning margins of roughly eight points for Vance in Ohio, about five for Budd in North Carolina, and a very narrow Walker edge in Georgia.
- Dennis PragerRace WinnersMiss · 0Asked who a Georgia Senate runoff would favor, Prager said it would favor Herschel Walker, because the contest would effectively be about control of the Senate.
- Megyn KellyRace WinnersMiss · 0Kelly said the worst case for Republicans was taking only the House, predicted Lee Zeldin would win the New York governor's race, and agreed the New Hampshire Republican Senate candidate would win.
- Matt ContinettiRace WinnersHit · 100Continetti forecast a big Republican night: a House gain of 20 to 30 seats or more and three to four Senate pickups, with Ron DeSantis reelected in Florida.