The 2023 NFL Season, Graded

Kansas City Chiefs won it all. The people predicting football went 65.4 for 100.

The Kansas City Chiefs (11–6) won the Super Bowl over the San Francisco 49ers (12–5). Along the way, 13 pundits made 196 claims specific enough to grade against it.

Super Bowl champions: KC
Takes graded: 196
Pundits on the record: 13
Average accuracy: 65.4

How accurate were 2023 NFL predictions?

Across 196 graded predictions about the 2023 NFL season, the average call scored 65.4 out of 100, 7.4 points above a naive guess on the same questions. 53% were hits (80 or better) and 23% were misses (under 40).

What was hard to call in 2023

Average score by kind of claim, ten graded minimum — the shape of the season's difficulty.

Positional Finishes11 graded45.5
Playoff Picks14 graded50.0
Season Win Totals33 graded56.4
Top Player Lists14 graded61.9

Pundit-seasons of 2023

Best skill against a naive guess on the same claims, ten graded calls minimum in the season. A provisional record — fewer than ten graded articles in all — is shown and labeled, never named best.

Pundits ranked by skill against a naive guess in the 2023 season
Pundit	Graded	Accuracy	Skill
Brendan Donahueprovisional	18	77.1	+50.5
The 33rd Team	21	72.1	+49.8