Tyler Sullivan· Sep 17, 2026
A CBS Sports column flags five Week 2 favorites on upset alert, effectively backing the underdogs — Lions at Bills, Bengals at Texans, Jets over Packers, Jaguars at Broncos and Saints at Ravens — to pull off wins.
“Now, we turn our attention to Week 2, where we've again identified five favorites that could be on upset alert.”
published in writing · CBS Sports · read the original →
5 checkable claims — 5 game outcome picks — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing bet.
It names 5 players and teams, each linked to their own record.
All 5 have settled, averaging 40 out of 100, against 40 for a naive guess at the same calls.
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Who this take is about
The games in this take
- Lions at Bills 21 calls
- Packers at Jets 12 calls
- Saints at Ravens 15 calls
- Bengals at Texans 26 calls
- Jaguars at Broncos 38 calls
5 checkable claims in this take
Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.
- Game Outcome PicksJacksonville JaguarsSep 17, 2026
Jacksonville Jaguars to beat Denver Broncos
“Jacksonville Jaguars (+2.5) at Denver Broncos ... Meanwhile, going into Denver and pulling out a win isn't foreign to the Jaguars.”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 100-194 skillHow this was scored
- won:
- DEN
- score:
- 13-20
- skill:
- -194
- they picked:
- JAX
- season:
- 2026
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 100
- the naive pick:
- DEN
- difficulty:
- 1.94
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 17
- Game Outcome PicksNew Orleans SaintsSep 17, 2026
New Orleans Saints to beat Baltimore Ravens
“New Orleans Saints (+8.5) at Baltimore Ravens ... If this turns into another shootout, Shough has shown he can at least hang around. I also wonder if this is quietly a look-ahead spot for Baltimore”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+194 skillHow this was scored
- won:
- NO
- score:
- 24-17
- skill:
- 194
- they picked:
- NO
- season:
- 2026
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 0
- the naive pick:
- BAL
- difficulty:
- 1.94
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 17
- Game Outcome PicksNew York JetsSep 17, 2026
New York Jets to beat Green Bay Packers
“Green Bay Packers at New York Jets (+3.5) ... Provided he keeps it clean again and doesn't make Green Bay's life easier, New York could mess around as a home dog and win outright.”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skillHow this was scored
- won:
- GB
- score:
- 20-17
- skill:
- 0
- they picked:
- NYJ
- season:
- 2026
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 0
- the naive pick:
- NYJ
- difficulty:
- 1.94
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 17
- Game Outcome PicksCincinnati BengalsSep 17, 2026
Cincinnati Bengals to beat Houston Texans
“Cincinnati Bengals (+3) at Houston Texans ... If this is an early indication that the unit may regress (even slightly) from their stellar production last season, the Bengals could be live.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+194 skillHow this was scored
- won:
- CIN
- score:
- 20-6
- skill:
- 194
- they picked:
- CIN
- season:
- 2026
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 0
- the naive pick:
- HOU
- difficulty:
- 1.94
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 17
- Game Outcome PicksDetroit LionsSep 17, 2026
Detroit Lions to beat Buffalo Bills
“Detroit Lions (+4.5) at Buffalo Bills ... identified five favorites that could be on upset alert. ... If he can get rolling and help Detroit win the time-of-possession battle, it could go a long way toward helping the defense limit Josh Allen's impact.”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 100-194 skillHow this was scored
- won:
- BUF
- score:
- 31-41
- skill:
- -194
- they picked:
- DET
- season:
- 2026
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 100
- the naive pick:
- BUF
- difficulty:
- 1.94
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 17
What others said about the same people
- Chris SimmsScore Predictions · New Orleans SaintsClose · 48Simms went through the entire Week 3 slate with straight-up winners and predicted final scores, taking Jacksonville, Buffalo, Cincinnati, Detroit, Houston, Carolina, Kansas City, Seattle, the Giants, Baltimore, New Orleans, Minnesota, San Francisco, Denver and Philadelphia. He also expected Zay Flowers and Puka Nacua to sit, Kyler Murray to play, and said Marvin Harrison Jr. projects as no better than a good No. 2 or high-end No. 3 receiver.
- Connor RogersGame Outcome Picks · Detroit LionsHit · 100Rogers picked Detroit, Houston, Carolina, Kansas City, Seattle and the Giants to win their Week 3 games, saying the Chiefs win by two touchdowns and the Giants by a field goal.
- Chris LongGame Outcome Picks · Cincinnati BengalsMiss · 0Long liked the Rams over the Broncos on Sunday night even without Puka Nacua, and expected the Bills to beat the winless Chargers in Buffalo. He also backed the Bengals over the Steelers, expected an angry Detroit team to handle the Jets, and still thought both the Lions and Vikings could win the NFC North.
- Nate TiceGame Outcome Picks · Detroit LionsHit · 100Tice matched his guest on every Week 3 game, picking the Ravens over the Cowboys, the Jaguars over the Patriots in a close game, the Broncos to upset the Rams, the Raiders over the Saints, the Eagles over the Bears and the Lions over the Jets.
- Steven RuizGame Outcome Picks · Detroit LionsHit · 100Previewing Week 3, Ruiz picked the Ravens to beat the Cowboys in Brazil, Jacksonville over New England in a low-scoring game, an upset by the Broncos over the Rams, the Raiders over the Saints, the Eagles over the Bears, the Lions over the Jets, and his Hail Mary that Houston beats Indianapolis by two touchdowns.
- Matt HarmonGame Outcome Picks · Jacksonville JaguarsMiss · 0Harmon picked the Bengals to beat the Texans in Week 2, expecting Nico Collins to miss the game with a hamstring injury, and also predicted the Titans would be shut out by the Eagles. He took the Rams over the Giants, the Bears over the Vikings, and the Jaguars at Denver.
More game outcome picks
The same kind of call, about other players and teams.
- Connor RogersGame Outcome Picks · New York GiantsHit · 100Rogers picked Detroit, Houston, Carolina, Kansas City, Seattle and the Giants to win their Week 3 games, saying the Chiefs win by two touchdowns and the Giants by a field goal.
- Chris LongGame Outcome Picks · Los Angeles RamsMiss · 0Long liked the Rams over the Broncos on Sunday night even without Puka Nacua, and expected the Bills to beat the winless Chargers in Buffalo. He also backed the Bengals over the Steelers, expected an angry Detroit team to handle the Jets, and still thought both the Lions and Vikings could win the NFC North.
- Steven RuizGame Outcome Picks · Las Vegas RaidersHit · 100Previewing Week 3, Ruiz picked the Ravens to beat the Cowboys in Brazil, Jacksonville over New England in a low-scoring game, an upset by the Broncos over the Rams, the Raiders over the Saints, the Eagles over the Bears, the Lions over the Jets, and his Hail Mary that Houston beats Indianapolis by two touchdowns.
- Nate TiceGame Outcome Picks · Baltimore RavensHit · 100Tice matched his guest on every Week 3 game, picking the Ravens over the Cowboys, the Jaguars over the Patriots in a close game, the Broncos to upset the Rams, the Raiders over the Saints, the Eagles over the Bears and the Lions over the Jets.
- Sam MonsonGame Outcome Picks · Seattle SeahawksMiss · 0Monson picked the Chargers to beat the Bills outright (jokingly crediting Buffalo's gray 'Nickel City' jerseys), took the Vikings to win outright in Tampa, and said Seattle would destroy Washington. He also reiterated his Super Bowl pick of Denver over the Rams, called the Dolphins destined for the No. 1 overall pick, and said the Saints are a worst-to-first candidate in the NFC South.
- Nate TiceGame Outcome Picks · New England PatriotsHit · 100Tice picked the Bengals over the Texans in a low-scoring game, the Jaguars at Denver, the Bears over the Vikings, the Patriots over the Steelers and the Rams to edge the Giants, and his Hail Mary was the Cowboys scoring 40 on Washington. He also floated Abdul Carter as a possible All-Pro.