Tyler Sullivan#27 of 87 NFL pundits · Sep 17, 2026
A CBS Sports column flags five Week 2 favorites on upset alert, effectively backing the underdogs — Lions at Bills, Bengals at Texans, Jets over Packers, Jaguars at Broncos and Saints at Ravens — to pull off wins.
Published in writing · CBS SportsRead the original
What Tyler Sullivan said
our reading, beside the words we read it fromNow, we turn our attention to Week 2, where we've again identified five favorites that could be on upset alert.
- Where it was published
- CBS Sports
- The piece
- Upset alert for NFL Week 2? Why these 5 favorites could easily drop their matchup, including the Ravens
- The original
- Read the original
- Read it wrong?
- Tell us and we will look
- SaidSep 17
- PlayedSep 17–20
- GradedSep 18–21
- 1Jacksonville Jaguars to beat Denver Broncos“Jacksonville Jaguars (+2.5) at Denver Broncos ... Meanwhile, going into Denver and pulling out a win isn't foreign to the Jaguars.”
- 2New Orleans Saints to beat Baltimore Ravens“New Orleans Saints (+8.5) at Baltimore Ravens ... If this turns into another shootout, Shough has shown he can at least hang around. I also wonder if this is quietly a look-ahead spot for Baltimore”
- 3New York Jets to beat Green Bay Packers“Green Bay Packers at New York Jets (+3.5) ... Provided he keeps it clean again and doesn't make Green Bay's life easier, New York could mess around as a home dog and win outright.”
- 4Cincinnati Bengals to beat Houston Texans“Cincinnati Bengals (+3) at Houston Texans ... If this is an early indication that the unit may regress (even slightly) from their stellar production last season, the Bengals could be live.”
- 5Detroit Lions to beat Buffalo Bills“Detroit Lions (+4.5) at Buffalo Bills ... identified five favorites that could be on upset alert. ... If he can get rolling and help Detroit win the time-of-possession battle, it could go a long way toward helping the defense limit Josh Allen's impact.”
Box score
HitCloseMissWaiting| Verdict | Call | Kind | What happened | Score | Naive | Skill |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacksonville Jaguars to beat Denver Broncos1 | Game Outcome Picks | Broncos 20–13 | 0 | 100 | −194 | |
| New Orleans Saints to beat Baltimore Ravens2 | Game Outcome Picks | Saints 24–17 | 100 | 0 | +194 | |
| New York Jets to beat Green Bay Packers3 | Game Outcome Picks | Packers 20–17 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Cincinnati Bengals to beat Houston Texans4 | Game Outcome Picks | Bengals 20–6 | 100 | 0 | +194 | |
| Detroit Lions to beat Buffalo Bills5 | Game Outcome Picks | Bills 41–31 | 0 | 100 | −194 | |
| 5 calls · 2 hits · 3 misses · all settled | 40 | 40 | ||||
Game calls show that game’s closing betting line under their grade: a dated fact from nflverse, for context and never part of a grade. MissedTakes takes no bets and earns nothing from any sportsbook.
How each call scored
a naive guessbetter than naiveworse than naive5 checkable claims — 5 game outcome picks — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call.
It names 5 players and teams, each linked to their own record.
All 5 have settled, averaging 40 out of 100, against 40 for a naive guess at the same calls.
Each call is scored 0 to 100 against what happened, on its own, by the published methodology. The naive guess is what knowing nothing would have scored on the same calls; the gap, weighted by how hard the call was, is the skill.
1Game Outcome PicksJacksonville Jaguars
Jacksonville Jaguars to beat Denver Broncos
What happenedBroncos 20–13Jaguars at Broncos0Miss · naive 1000this call−100a naive guess=−100worse than naive×1.94difficulty=−194skillClosing line (Sep 20): Broncos by 2.5 · underdog pick, Jaguars 43%. Graded on who won, not on the spread.
Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- won:
- DEN
- score:
- 13-20
- skill:
- −194
- they picked:
- JAX
- season:
- 2026
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 100
- the naive pick:
- DEN
- difficulty:
- 1.94
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 17
2Game Outcome PicksNew Orleans Saints
New Orleans Saints to beat Baltimore Ravens
What happenedSaints 24–17Saints at Ravens100Hit · naive 0100this call−0a naive guess=100better than naive×1.94difficulty=+194skillClosing line (Sep 20): Ravens by 8.5 · underdog pick, Saints about 1 in 4 (24%). Graded on who won, not on the spread.
Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- won:
- NO
- score:
- 24-17
- skill:
- 194
- they picked:
- NO
- season:
- 2026
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 0
- the naive pick:
- BAL
- difficulty:
- 1.94
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 17
3Game Outcome PicksNew York Jets
New York Jets to beat Green Bay Packers
What happenedPackers 20–17Packers at Jets0Miss · naive 00this call−0a naive guess=0better than naive×1.94difficulty=0skillClosing line (Sep 20): Packers by 3.5 · underdog pick, Jets 38%. Graded on who won, not on the spread.
Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- won:
- GB
- score:
- 20-17
- skill:
- 0
- they picked:
- NYJ
- season:
- 2026
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 0
- the naive pick:
- NYJ
- difficulty:
- 1.94
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 17
4Game Outcome PicksCincinnati Bengals
Cincinnati Bengals to beat Houston Texans
What happenedBengals 20–6Bengals at Texans100Hit · naive 0100this call−0a naive guess=100better than naive×1.94difficulty=+194skillClosing line (Sep 20): Texans by 3 · underdog pick, Bengals 43%. Graded on who won, not on the spread.
Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- won:
- CIN
- score:
- 20-6
- skill:
- 194
- they picked:
- CIN
- season:
- 2026
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 0
- the naive pick:
- HOU
- difficulty:
- 1.94
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 17
5Game Outcome PicksDetroit Lions
Detroit Lions to beat Buffalo Bills
What happenedBills 41–31Lions at Bills0Miss · naive 1000this call−100a naive guess=−100worse than naive×1.94difficulty=−194skillClosing line (Sep 17): Bills by 5.5 · underdog pick, Lions about 1 in 3 (32%). Graded on who won, not on the spread.
Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- won:
- BUF
- score:
- 31-41
- skill:
- −194
- they picked:
- DET
- season:
- 2026
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 100
- the naive pick:
- BUF
- difficulty:
- 1.94
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 17
- All
The take as a whole
the average of 5 settled calls, each counted once
40naive 40
The games in this take
every pundit’s pick on eachWho this take is about
Others on the same people
Rich Eisen · Trade and Signing Calls · Aaron Rodgers · Miss 0
Eisen ranked their top five most impressive Pro Bowl campaigns of the season, topped by Sam Darnold, and predicted that Sunday would be Aaron Rodgers' last game with the Jets.Christian Booher · Roster Spot Calls · Anthony Lucas · Miss 0
Booher previews the Lions' Week 9 trip to Miami, predicting Derrick Barnes takes over as the green-dot linebacker in Jack Campbell's absence, Juice Scruggs starts at center, and boldly forecasting Detroit's first defensive touchdown of the season on an Aidan Hutchinson strip-sack recovered and returned by Barnes.Ross Jackson · Roster Spot Calls · Zamir White · Miss 0
Ross Jackson gives their final preseason 53-man roster projection for the New Orleans Saints, naming who makes the initial roster at every position group, who starts on injured reserve or the practice squad, and who the five starting offensive linemen and kicker will be.Doug Joubert · Roster Spot Calls · Charlie Smyth · Hit 100
Joubert projects the Saints' 53-man roster ahead of the cutdown deadline, naming every player they expect to make the team by position group, plus several players they expect to receive PUP/IR designations, and predicting Torricelli Simpkins will later be moved to the practice squad.Ross Jackson · Roster Spot Calls · Charlie Smyth · Hit 100
Ross Jackson lays out their early defensive 53-man roster projection for the 2026 Saints, naming five edge rushers, four interior defensive linemen, five cornerbacks, five linebackers and five safeties, plus their kicker, punter and long snapper, and sends Mike Heldman, Chris Rumph and Jackson Sirmon to the practice squad.Ross Jackson · Roster Spot Calls · Jordyn Tyson · Hit 100
Ross Jackson projects the New Orleans Saints' offensive 53-man roster: three quarterbacks with Tyler Shough starting and Spencer Rattler as the backup, four running backs including Alvin Kamara, six wide receivers with Jalen Polk making it, three tight ends, ten offensive linemen with a set starting five, and Charlie Smith at kicker.
More game outcome picks
The same kind of call, about other players and teams.
Sam Monson · Game Outcome Picks · New York Giants · Miss 0
Monson picked every Week 10 game, taking the Giants, Lions, Packers, Panthers, Colts, Texans, Bills, Chiefs, Jaguars, Seahawks, Rams, Cowboys, Bengals and Ravens, and also suggested the Chargers' only likely wins the rest of the way come against the Jets and Dolphins.Eva Geitheim · Game Outcome Picks · Washington Commanders · Hit 100
Geitheim picked the Commanders, Lions, Chiefs, Texans, Vikings, Jaguars, Colts, Panthers, Bills, Seahawks, Rams, 49ers, Bengals and Ravens in Week 10.Conor Orr · Game Outcome Picks · New York Giants · Miss 0
Orr picked the Giants, Lions, Chiefs, Texans, Packers, Jaguars, Dolphins, Panthers, Bills, Seahawks, Rams, 49ers, Bengals and Chargers in Week 10.Albert Breer · Game Outcome Picks · New York Giants · Miss 0
Breer picked all 14 Week 10 games straight up, favoring the Giants, Lions, Chiefs, Texans, Packers, Jaguars, Dolphins, Panthers, Bills, Seahawks, Rams, 49ers, Bengals and Ravens.Mitch Goldich · Game Outcome Picks · New York Giants · Miss 0
Goldich picked the Giants, Lions, Chiefs, Texans, Packers, Jaguars, Dolphins, Panthers, Bills, Seahawks, Rams, 49ers, Bengals and Ravens in Week 10.Matt Verderame · Game Outcome Picks · New York Giants · Miss 0
Verderame picked the Giants, Lions, Chiefs, Texans, Packers, Jaguars, Dolphins, Saints, Bills, Seahawks, Rams, 49ers, Bengals and Ravens in Week 10.