Jacob HerlinSep 22, 2026
Herlin ranks all 32 team defenses for Week 3 with projected points allowed, sacks, turnovers and fantasy points, putting Seattle first against a Mariota-led Washington and Miami last against the Chiefs. They also expect Sam Darnold not to start for Seattle this week despite returning to practice.
Published in writing · FantasyProsRead the original
What Jacob Herlin said
our reading, beside the words we read it fromThis appears to be a pretty good week for streaming, with several widely-available teams facing favorable matchups.
- Where it was published
- FantasyPros
- The piece
- Let’s Stream Defenses: Week 3 (2026 Fantasy Football)
- The original
- Read the original
- Read it wrong?
- Tell us and we will look
- SaidSep 22
- GradedOct 9
- 132 fantasy defenses ranked for Week 3“Week 3 D/ST Rankings & Projections — table ranking all 32 team defenses with projected PA, sacks, turnovers and FPTS”
- 2Availability Calls“Darnold is expected to return to practice this week, but he doesn’t seem likely to start. (Week 3)”
Box score
HitCloseMissWaiting| Verdict | Call | Kind | What happened | Score | Naive | Skill |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 32 fantasy defenses ranked for Week 31 | Fantasy Defense Rankings | — | 55.04 | 50 | +9.53 | |
| “Darnold is expected to return to practice this week, but he…”2 | Availability Calls | — | — | — | — | |
| 2 calls · 1 close call · 1 waiting | 55 | 50 | ||||
How each call scored
a naive guessbetter than naive2 checkable claims — 1 availability call and 1 fantasy defense ranking — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call.
It names 2 players and teams, each linked to their own record.
1 of 2 have settled so far, averaging 55 out of 100, against 50 for a naive guess at the same calls.
Each call is scored 0 to 100 against what happened, on its own, by the published methodology. The naive guess is what knowing nothing would have scored on the same calls; the gap, weighted by how hard the call was, is the skill.
32 fantasy defenses ranked for Week 3
VerdictClose55.04Close · naive 5055.04this call−50a naive guess=5.04better than naive×1.89difficulty=+9.53skillThink this is wrong?How this was scored
- naive:
- a coin-flip ordering scores 50
- scope:
- week 3
- skill:
- 9.53
- method:
- spearman
- placed:
- 32
- season:
- 2026
- scoring:
- standard D/ST
- accuracy:
- 55.04
- baseline:
- 50
- difficulty:
- 1.89
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- could not place:
- 0
- defenses ranked:
- 32
- weeks left when called:
- 16
2Availability CallsSam DarnoldSeattle Seahawks
“Darnold is expected to return to practice this week, but he doesn’t seem likely to start. (Week 3)”
VerdictWaitingNot settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
Who this take is about
Others on the same people
Rich Eisen · Trade and Signing Calls · Sam Darnold · Miss 0
Eisen expects Sam Darnold to remain in Minnesota rather than leave in free agency, and believes the Browns will trade Myles Garrett out of the conference, to an NFC team.Albert Breer · Game Outcome Picks · Seattle Seahawks · Hit 100
Breer picks the Seahawks to beat the Cardinals in their Week 9 NFC West matchup.Tyler Sullivan · Game Outcome Picks · Seattle Seahawks · Hit 100
Sullivan picks the Seahawks to win in Week 9.Dave Richard · Game Outcome Picks · Seattle Seahawks · Hit 100
Richard picks the Seahawks over the Cardinals.John Pluym · Game Outcome Picks · Seattle Seahawks · Hit 100
Pluym picks the Seahawks over the Cardinals.
More fantasy defense rankings
The same kind of call, about other players and teams.