Skip to main content
MissedTakes
Menu

Jacob Herlin· Sep 22, 2026

Herlin ranks all 32 team defenses for Week 3 with projected points allowed, sacks, turnovers and fantasy points, putting Seattle first against a Mariota-led Washington and Miami last against the Chiefs. He also expects Sam Darnold not to start for Seattle this week despite returning to practice.

“This appears to be a pretty good week for streaming, with several widely-available teams facing favorable matchups.”

published in writing · FantasyPros · read the original →

2 checkable claims — 1 availability call and 1 fantasy defense ranking — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing bet.

It names 2 players and teams, each linked to their own record.

1 of 2 have settled so far, averaging 54 out of 100, against 50 for a naive guess at the same calls.

Where do you stand? Pick this and every open claim on Picks →

Who this take is about

2 checkable claims in this take

Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.

  • Fantasy Defense RankingsSep 22, 2026

    32 fantasy defenses ranked for Week 3

    “Week 3 D/ST Rankings & Projections — table ranking all 32 team defenses with projected PA, sacks, turnovers and FPTS”

    Close · 54Scored 54.01a naive guess scored 50+7.59 skill
    How this was scored
    lines:
    [object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
    naive:
    a coin-flip ordering scores 50
    scope:
    week 3
    skill:
    7.59
    method:
    spearman
    placed:
    32
    season:
    2026
    scoring:
    standard D/ST
    accuracy:
    54.01
    baseline:
    50
    difficulty:
    1.89
    weeks in the season:
    18
    could not place:
    0
    defenses ranked:
    32
    weeks left when called:
    16

    Think this is wrong?

  • Availability CallsSam DarnoldSeattle SeahawksSep 22, 2026

    “Darnold is expected to return to practice this week, but he doesn’t seem likely to start. (Week 3)”

    Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.

    Think this is wrong?

What others said about the same people

Discussed alongside these