Noah StrackbeinAug 29, 2026
Strackbein predicts the Steelers will keep six wide receivers on the 53-man roster: DK Metcalf, Michael Pittman Jr., Roman Wilson, Germie Bernard, Ben Skowronek and Kaden Wetjen.
Published in writing · Sports IllustratedRead the original
6 of 6calls landed6 hits · all settled
100Average accuracyout of 100, across 6 calls
66.7A naive guessthe same calls, no knowledge
6 of 6Settlednone still waiting
0Waitingnot graded yet
What Noah Strackbein said
our reading, beside the words we read it fromDK Metcalf, Michael Pittman Jr., Roman Wilson, Germie Bernard, Ben Skowronek and Kaden Wetjen have felt like the six wideouts Pittsburgh will keep since day one
- Where it was published
- Sports Illustrated
- The piece
- Steelers Cut Two More Players Including Former First-Round Pick
- The original
- Read the original
- Read it wrong?
- Tell us and we will look
- SaidAug 29
- GradedSep 25
- 1Michael Pittman to make the roster“DK Metcalf, Michael Pittman Jr., Roman Wilson, Germie Bernard, Ben Skowronek and Kaden Wetjen have felt like the six wideouts Pittsburgh will keep since day one”
- 2Roman Wilson to make the roster“DK Metcalf, Michael Pittman Jr., Roman Wilson, Germie Bernard, Ben Skowronek and Kaden Wetjen have felt like the six wideouts Pittsburgh will keep since day one”
- 3Ben Skowronek to make the roster“DK Metcalf, Michael Pittman Jr., Roman Wilson, Germie Bernard, Ben Skowronek and Kaden Wetjen have felt like the six wideouts Pittsburgh will keep since day one”
- 4Germie Bernard to make the roster“DK Metcalf, Michael Pittman Jr., Roman Wilson, Germie Bernard, Ben Skowronek and Kaden Wetjen have felt like the six wideouts Pittsburgh will keep since day one”
- 5DK Metcalf to make the roster“DK Metcalf, Michael Pittman Jr., Roman Wilson, Germie Bernard, Ben Skowronek and Kaden Wetjen have felt like the six wideouts Pittsburgh will keep since day one”
- 6Kaden Wetjen to make the roster“DK Metcalf, Michael Pittman Jr., Roman Wilson, Germie Bernard, Ben Skowronek and Kaden Wetjen have felt like the six wideouts Pittsburgh will keep since day one”
Box score
HitCloseMissWaiting| Verdict | Call | Kind | What happened | Score | Naive | Skill |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Pittman to make the roster1 | Roster Spot Calls | 3 weeks on a 53 | 100 | 100 | 0 | |
| Roman Wilson to make the roster2 | Roster Spot Calls | 3 weeks on a 53 | 100 | 100 | 0 | |
| Ben Skowronek to make the roster3 | Roster Spot Calls | 3 weeks on a 53 | 100 | 100 | 0 | |
| Germie Bernard to make the roster4 | Roster Spot Calls | 3 weeks on a 53 | 100 | 0 | +200 | |
| DK Metcalf to make the roster5 | Roster Spot Calls | 3 weeks on a 53 | 100 | 100 | 0 | |
| Kaden Wetjen to make the roster6 | Roster Spot Calls | 3 weeks on a 53 | 100 | 0 | +200 | |
| 6 calls · 6 hits · all settled | 100 | 66.7 | ||||
How each call scored
a naive guessbetter than naive6 checkable claims — 6 roster spot calls — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call.
It names 7 players and teams, each linked to their own record.
All 6 have settled, averaging 100 out of 100, against 66.7 for a naive guess at the same calls.
Each call is scored 0 to 100 against what happened, on its own, by the published methodology. The naive guess is what knowing nothing would have scored on the same calls; the gap, weighted by how hard the call was, is the skill.
1Roster Spot CallsMichael PittmanPittsburgh Steelers
Michael Pittman to make the roster
What happened3 weeks on a 53100Hit · naive 100100this call−100a naive guess=0better than naive×2difficulty=0skillThink this is wrong?How this was scored
- club:
- PIT
- skill:
- 0
- player:
- Michael Pittman
- season:
- 2026
- claimed:
- he makes the 53
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 100
- difficulty:
- 2
- the naive guess:
- he was on somebody's 53 last season, so he makes one again
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks on the53:
- 3
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- first week on the53:
- 1
- weeks on the practice squad:
- 0
2Roster Spot CallsRoman WilsonPittsburgh Steelers
Roman Wilson to make the roster
What happened3 weeks on a 53100Hit · naive 100100this call−100a naive guess=0better than naive×2difficulty=0skillThink this is wrong?How this was scored
- club:
- PIT
- skill:
- 0
- player:
- Roman Wilson
- season:
- 2026
- claimed:
- he makes the 53
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 100
- difficulty:
- 2
- the naive guess:
- he was on somebody's 53 last season, so he makes one again
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks on the53:
- 3
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- first week on the53:
- 1
- weeks on the practice squad:
- 0
3Roster Spot CallsBen SkowronekPittsburgh Steelers
Ben Skowronek to make the roster
What happened3 weeks on a 53100Hit · naive 100100this call−100a naive guess=0better than naive×2difficulty=0skillThink this is wrong?How this was scored
- club:
- PIT
- skill:
- 0
- player:
- Ben Skowronek
- season:
- 2026
- claimed:
- he makes the 53
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 100
- difficulty:
- 2
- the naive guess:
- he was on somebody's 53 last season, so he makes one again
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks on the53:
- 3
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- first week on the53:
- 1
- weeks on the practice squad:
- 0
4Roster Spot CallsGermie BernardPittsburgh Steelers
Germie Bernard to make the roster
What happened3 weeks on a 53100Hit · naive 0100this call−0a naive guess=100better than naive×2difficulty=+200skillThink this is wrong?How this was scored
- club:
- PIT
- skill:
- 200
- player:
- Germie Bernard
- season:
- 2026
- claimed:
- he makes the 53
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 0
- difficulty:
- 2
- the naive guess:
- he was on somebody's 53 last season, so he makes one again
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks on the53:
- 3
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- first week on the53:
- 1
- weeks on the practice squad:
- 0
5Roster Spot CallsDK MetcalfPittsburgh Steelers
DK Metcalf to make the roster
What happened3 weeks on a 53100Hit · naive 100100this call−100a naive guess=0better than naive×2difficulty=0skillThink this is wrong?How this was scored
- club:
- PIT
- skill:
- 0
- player:
- DK Metcalf
- season:
- 2026
- claimed:
- he makes the 53
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 100
- difficulty:
- 2
- the naive guess:
- he was on somebody's 53 last season, so he makes one again
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks on the53:
- 3
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- first week on the53:
- 1
- weeks on the practice squad:
- 0
6Roster Spot CallsKaden WetjenPittsburgh Steelers
Kaden Wetjen to make the roster
What happened3 weeks on a 53100Hit · naive 0100this call−0a naive guess=100better than naive×2difficulty=+200skillThink this is wrong?How this was scored
- club:
- PIT
- skill:
- 200
- player:
- Kaden Wetjen
- season:
- 2026
- claimed:
- he makes the 53
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 0
- difficulty:
- 2
- the naive guess:
- he was on somebody's 53 last season, so he makes one again
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks on the53:
- 3
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- first week on the53:
- 1
- weeks on the practice squad:
- 0
- All
The take as a whole
the average of 6 settled calls, each counted once
100naive 66.7
Who this take is about
Others on the same people
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More roster spot calls
The same kind of call, about other players and teams.
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Jensen predicts Daiyan Henley's arrival will cut into Justin Strnad's snaps while Alex Singleton keeps playing virtually every down, and that Denver will return to a three-linebacker rotation after the Week 10 bye. They also expect one of Jordan Turner or Karene Reid — most likely Turner — to be waived to clear a roster spot.Charean Williams · Roster Spot Calls · Odell Beckham Jr. · Miss 0
Williams writes that after releasing Odell Beckham Jr. to open a roster spot for Kirk Cousins, the Vikings will bring them back on the practice squad.