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Jordan SchultzOct 28, 2026

Schultz reported that while a deal is unlikely this week, Downs is eventually expected to be traded, with interest from multiple AFC teams including the Steelers.

Published in writing · Sports IllustratedRead the original

100Hit · out of 100
Trade and Signing CallsThe callsettled
0A naive guessthe same call, no knowledge
100This callout of 100
+161Skillafter difficulty

What Jordan Schultz said

the expectation is a trade will eventually happen
Our reading: Josh Downs to move — “a trade will eventually happen”
Where it was published
Sports Illustrated
The piece
Josh Downs' Trade Request Pushes Colts Further Toward Full Rebuild
The original
Read the original
  1. SaidOct 28
  2. GradedNov 11

How the call scored

a naive guessbetter than naive

One checkable claim, graded on its own against what actually happened.

The call scored 100 out of 100, against 0 for a naive guess at the same calls.

The call is scored 0 to 100 against what happened, on its own, by the published methodology. The naive guess is what knowing nothing would have scored on the same call; the gap, weighted by how hard the call was, is the skill.

  1. Trade and Signing CallsJosh Downs

    Josh Downs to move — “a trade will eventually happen”

    VerdictHit
    100Hit · naive 0
    100this call0a naive guess100better than naive1.61difficulty+161skill
    How this was scored
    skill:
    161
    player:
    Josh Downs
    season:
    2026
    claimed:
    he leaves
    was with:
    IND
    accuracy:
    100
    baseline:
    0
    reported:
    traded → KC
    how he left:
    traded
    mechanism:
    traded
    settled by:
    a confirmed report from the crawl (reported outcomes)
    difficulty:
    1.61
    the naive guess:
    he stays where he is
    weeks in the season:
    18
    weeks left when called:
    11
    Think this is wrong?

Others on the same people

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