Buck Sexton· Oct 6, 2026
Buck Sexton predicted Republicans keep the Senate but lose the House, and ran through the key Senate races: GOP wins in Texas, Maine and New Hampshire, while Democrats take Michigan, North Carolina and Ohio.
“I think we win the Senate we lose the house”
said on air or in an interview · The Clay Travis and Buck Sexton Show · read the original →
9 checkable claims — 6 race winners and 3 control of congress — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call.
None of them have settled yet — they grade once their results are in.
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9 checkable claims in this take
Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.
- Race WinnersOct 6, 2026
“I think we win in Maine. ... I probably have too much faith in Susan Collins, but I've just always seen all the polls completely underestimate her strength to pull out a victory.”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
- Race WinnersOct 6, 2026
“I think we win in New Hampshire.”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
- Race WinnersOct 6, 2026
“I think we lose in North Carolina.”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
- Race WinnersOct 6, 2026
“I think we win in Texas. ... But I'm very confident still in Texas.”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
- Control of CongressOct 6, 2026
“so i think i think we win the senate we lose the house”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
- Control of CongressOct 6, 2026
“I do think we're going to win the Senate. I just want to be clear, I'm not a doomer about this at all.”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
- Race WinnersOct 6, 2026
“I think we lose in Ohio.”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
- Race WinnersOct 6, 2026
“I think we lose in Michigan. ... I just think that Michigan race is going to be very tough for us.”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
- Control of CongressOct 6, 2026
“which is what Democrats will do when they get the majority in the House, which everyone pretty much expects will happen”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
More race winners
The same kind of call, about other players and teams.
- Jim GeraghtyRace WinnersMiss · 0Geraghty said Republicans would clearly win the House, but with a majority in the twenties rather than a 40-50 seat wave, and that the GOP would take the Senate by about one seat. He called Budd, Vance and Johnson winners in their Senate races, Kiggans a winner in Virginia's 2nd, Fetterman the likely winner in Pennsylvania, Laxalt the safer GOP bet in Nevada, and liked Walker's odds in a Georgia runoff.
- Megyn KellyRace WinnersHit · 100Kelly predicted Republicans would win control of the House, that Ron Johnson would hold Wisconsin given Mandela Barnes' record on crime, and that JD Vance would win in Ohio.
- Tom BevanRace WinnersHit · 100Bevan said Republicans would still take the House and would win the Senate by a margin of one or two seats, that Oz would fall short in Pennsylvania, and gave expected winning margins of roughly eight points for Vance in Ohio, about five for Budd in North Carolina, and a very narrow Walker edge in Georgia.
- Dennis PragerRace WinnersMiss · 0Asked who a Georgia Senate runoff would favor, Prager said it would favor Herschel Walker, because the contest would effectively be about control of the Senate.
- Megyn KellyRace WinnersMiss · 0Kelly said the worst case for Republicans was taking only the House, predicted Lee Zeldin would win the New York governor's race, and agreed the New Hampshire Republican Senate candidate would win.
- Matt ContinettiRace WinnersHit · 100Continetti forecast a big Republican night: a House gain of 20 to 30 seats or more and three to four Senate pickups, with Ron DeSantis reelected in Florida.