Megyn Kelly· Nov 8, 2022

Kelly said the worst case for Republicans was taking only the House, predicted Lee Zeldin would win the New York governor's race, and agreed the New Hampshire Republican Senate candidate would win.

“In fact, if I had to predict, I think I'd say it's gonna be Zeldin.”

said on air, transcribed by us · The Megyn Kelly Show · read the original →

3 checkable claims — 2 race winners and 1 control of congres — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call.

All 3 have settled, averaging 33.3 out of 100, against 66.7 for a naive guess at the same calls.

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3 checkable claims in this take

Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.

Race WinnersNov 8, 2022
“I actually think there's a very good chance today that New York will vote Zeldin... In fact, if I had to predict, I think I'd say it's gonna be Zeldin.”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 100-100 skill
How this was scored
right:
no
race:
2022-governor-ny
election year:
2022
skill:
−100
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Democratic
result from:
wikipedia-2022-governor
who won:
Kathy Hochul
accuracy:
0
baseline:
100
race name:
2022 New York gubernatorial election
decided in the:
general
they said:
Lee Zeldin
days before the vote when called:
0
difficulty:
1
the winner's party:
Democratic
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2022-11-08
the result is:
certified
the party they named:
Republican
Think this is wrong?
Race WinnersNov 8, 2022
“I feel like he's gonna win too. I kinda feel like that's a dark horse race.”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 100-100 skill
How this was scored
right:
no
race:
2022-senate-nh
election year:
2022
skill:
−100
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Democratic
result from:
fec-2022
who won:
Maggie Hassan
accuracy:
0
baseline:
100
race name:
2022 U.S. Senate election in New Hampshire
decided in the:
general
they said:
Donald C. Bolduc
days before the vote when called:
0
difficulty:
1
the winner's party:
Democratic
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2022-11-08
the result is:
certified
the party they named:
Republican
Think this is wrong?
Control of CongressNov 8, 2022
“after today's election results, which at the worst would be Republicans only take the house”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+100 skill
How this was scored
right:
yes
election year:
2022
skill:
100
topic:
elections
result from:
house: Office of the Historian, U.S. House of Representatives, Party Divisions of the House of Representatives (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Party-Divisions/Party-Divisions/)
chamber:
2022-house
who controls it:
Republican
accuracy:
100
baseline:
0
they said:
Republican
days before the vote when called:
0
difficulty:
1
the naive guess:
the party in control going in keeps it
Election Day:
2022-11-08
who controlled it before:
Democratic
Think this is wrong?

More race winners

The same kind of call, about other players and teams.