Tom Bevan· Nov 9, 2022

Bevan said Republicans would still take the House and would win the Senate by a margin of one or two seats, that Oz would fall short in Pennsylvania, and gave expected winning margins of roughly eight points for Vance in Ohio, about five for Budd in North Carolina, and a very narrow Walker edge in Georgia.

“And, it looks like Republicans are still gonna take the house.”

said on air, transcribed by us · The Megyn Kelly Show · read the original →

5 checkable claims — 2 control of congress, 2 race margins and 1 race winner — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call.

All 5 have settled, averaging 68.4 out of 100, against 42.2 for a naive guess at the same calls.

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5 checkable claims in this take

Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.

Control of CongressNov 9, 2022
“And, it looks like Republicans are still gonna take the house.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+100 skill
How this was scored
right:
yes
election year:
2022
skill:
100
topic:
elections
result from:
house: Office of the Historian, U.S. House of Representatives, Party Divisions of the House of Representatives (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Party-Divisions/Party-Divisions/)
chamber:
2022-house
who controls it:
Republican
accuracy:
100
baseline:
0
they said:
Republican
days before the vote when called:
0
difficulty:
1
the naive guess:
the party in control going in keeps it
Election Day:
2022-11-08
who controlled it before:
Democratic
Think this is wrong?
Control of CongressNov 9, 2022
“And are are you still predicting GOP takes the senate by, like, one quickly? ... Tom? I think it's gonna be one, maybe two.”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 100-100 skill
How this was scored
right:
no
election year:
2022
skill:
−100
topic:
elections
in their words:
one, maybe two
result from:
senate: United States Senate, Party Division (https://www.senate.gov/history/partydiv.htm)
chamber:
2022-senate
who controls it:
Democratic
accuracy:
0
baseline:
100
they said:
Republican
days before the vote when called:
0
difficulty:
1
the naive guess:
the party in control going in keeps it
Election Day:
2022-11-08
who controlled it before:
Democratic
Think this is wrong?
Race MarginsNov 9, 2022
“we had JD Vance in our real clear politics average leading that race by eight points. That's about what he's coming in at, what he's gonna win it by.”
Hit · 81Scored 81.1a naive guess scored 38.9+42.2 skill
How this was scored
race:
2022-senate-oh
election year:
2022
skill:
42.2
topic:
elections
what happened:
6.11
in their words:
about eight points
result from:
fec-2022
who won:
JD Vance
zero credit this far off:
10
what they counted:
margin in points
whose number:
JD Vance
accuracy:
81.1
baseline:
38.9
race name:
2022 U.S. Senate election in Ohio
decided in the:
general
they said:
8
days before the vote when called:
0
difficulty:
1
they won:
yes
the naive guess:
the seat's previous margin, or a tie when we do not hold it
Election Day:
2022-11-08
the certified margin:
6.11
their party:
Republican
the naive guess said:
0
Think this is wrong?
Race WinnersNov 9, 2022
“So it looks like Oz is gonna fall short, and we'll see what happens with Blake Masters.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+100 skill
How this was scored
right:
yes
race:
2022-senate-pa
election year:
2022
skill:
100
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Republican
result from:
fec-2022
who won:
John K. Fetterman
accuracy:
100
baseline:
0
race name:
2022 U.S. Senate election in Pennsylvania
decided in the:
general
they said:
John K. Fetterman
days before the vote when called:
0
difficulty:
1
the winner's party:
Democratic
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2022-11-08
the result is:
certified
the party they named:
Democratic
Think this is wrong?
Race MarginsNov 9, 2022
“Herschel Walker was, up 1.4 in the average of polls. And, you know, for a while there, he was at 1.4, 1.1. I mean, I think it's gonna be, you know, right around that area.”
Close · 61Scored 60.9a naive guess scored 71.9-11 skill
How this was scored
race:
2022-senate-ga
election year:
2022
skill:
−11
topic:
elections
what happened:
−2.81
in their words:
right around 1.4, 1.1
read as:
as written
result from:
fec-2022
who won:
Raphael Warnock
zero credit this far off:
10
what they counted:
margin in points
whose number:
Herschel Junior Walker
accuracy:
60.9
baseline:
71.9
race name:
2022 U.S. Senate election in Georgia
decided in the:
runoff
days before the vote when called:
0
difficulty:
1
they won:
no
the naive guess:
the seat's previous margin, or a tie when we do not hold it
Election Day:
2022-11-08
the certified margin:
2.81
their party:
Republican
their range:
1.1 to 1.4
the naive guess said:
0
Think this is wrong?

More control of congress

The same kind of call, about other players and teams.