Across 28 graded calls in 4 articles, Jim Geraghty scores 61.74% accuracy and a MissedTakes Score of -0.69, which means their calls were worse than a naive guess on the same claims. That is a provisional record, fewer than ten graded articles, so the numbers are not yet meaningful and they are not ranked on the leaderboard.
Fewer than 10 graded articles. Treat this as provisional.
100% of their claims were specific enough to check. Most of what they said committed to something.
They hedged 13.49% of their claims — a “probably”, a “could”, a “wouldn’t be surprised”.
Every number here is computed from the published methodology, and every call below shows its own arithmetic.
What they call, and how it goes
The record split by kind of claim — five graded calls minimum before a kind shows here. A pundit can be sharp on drafts and ordinary on game picks, and averaging that away is how a number stops meaning anything.
“they keep hearing that in Wyoming, Deb Fisher's in trouble. I'm sorry, Nebraska... Nebraska is a much cheaper state. They still haven't put any money there, so I'm kinda skeptical the Democrats are like, oh, this guy, who nobody's ever heard of is about to pull off the upset of the century.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skill
“So I think that one's Ron Ron Johnson's got that one, but we may not know until tomorrow.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skill
How this was scored
right:
yes
race:
2022-senate-wi
election year:
2022
skill:
0
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Republican
result from:
fec-2022
who won:
Ron Johnson
accuracy:
100
baseline:
100
race name:
2022 U.S. Senate election in Wisconsin
decided in the:
general
they said:
Ron Johnson
days before the vote when called:
0
difficulty:
1
the winner's party:
“Republican Jen Kiggins has a lead of 55% to 44% over Elaine Luria. Looks like Republicans will get that one.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+100 skill
How this was scored
right:
yes
race:
2022-house-va-02
election year:
2022
skill:
100
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Democratic
result from:
fec-2022
who won:
Jen Kiggans
accuracy:
100
baseline:
0
race name:
2022 U.S. House election in Virginia's district 2
decided in the:
general
they said:
Jen Kiggans
days before the vote when called:
0
difficulty:
1
the winner's party:
“And I think Nevada is the safer bet of the two. Laxalt's been a very strong candidate, had a small but consistent lead in the polling.”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 100-100 skill
How this was scored
right:
no
race:
2022-senate-nv
election year:
2022
skill:
−100
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Democratic
in their words:
the safer bet of the two
result from:
fec-2022
who won:
Catherine Cortez Masto
accuracy:
0
baseline:
100
race name:
2022 U.S. Senate election in Nevada
decided in the:
general
they said:
Adam Paul Laxalt
days before the vote when called:
0
difficulty:
“It looks like Ted Budd is going to win in North Carolina.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skill
How this was scored
right:
yes
race:
2022-senate-nc
election year:
2022
skill:
0
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Republican
result from:
fec-2022
who won:
Ted Budd
accuracy:
100
baseline:
100
race name:
2022 U.S. Senate election in North Carolina
decided in the:
general
they said:
Ted Budd
days before the vote when called:
0
difficulty:
1
the winner's party:
Republican
“I still think it's fairly obvious that Republicans will win the house.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+100 skill
How this was scored
right:
yes
election year:
2022
skill:
100
topic:
elections
result from:
house: Office of the Historian, U.S. House of Representatives, Party Divisions of the House of Representatives (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Party-Divisions/Party-Divisions/)
chamber:
2022-house
who controls it:
Republican
accuracy:
100
baseline:
0
they said:
Republican
days before the vote when called:
0
difficulty:
1
the naive guess:
the party in control going in keeps it
Election Day:
2022-11-08
who controlled it before:
“And are are you still predicting GOP takes the senate by, like, one quickly? Yeah. You know, lack of salt. Don't make me look stupid.”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 100-100 skill
How this was scored
right:
no
election year:
2022
skill:
−100
topic:
elections
in their words:
takes the senate by, like, one
result from:
senate: United States Senate, Party Division (https://www.senate.gov/history/partydiv.htm)
chamber:
2022-senate
who controls it:
Democratic
accuracy:
0
baseline:
100
they said:
Republican
days before the vote when called:
0
difficulty:
1
the naive guess:
the party in control going in keeps it
Election Day:
“Ohio, North Carolina, Wisconsin haven't gotten calls on any of these yet, but I think they're all looking pretty Republican. Vance is now in the lead again.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skill
How this was scored
right:
yes
race:
2022-senate-oh
election year:
2022
skill:
0
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Republican
in their words:
looking pretty Republican
result from:
fec-2022
who won:
JD Vance
accuracy:
100
baseline:
100
race name:
2022 U.S. Senate election in Ohio
decided in the:
general
they said:
JD Vance
days before the vote when called:
0
difficulty:
“Fetterman is looking like he's gonna pull it out in Pennsylvania. Oz is down by, like, four percentage points.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+100 skill
“you end up with 235 Republicans and 200 Democrats. So put those down as my final prediction numbers”
Miss · 35Scored 35a naive guess scored 55-20 skill
How this was scored
election year:
2022
party:
Republican
seats after:
222
skill:
−20
topic:
elections
what happened:
222
result from:
house: Office of the Historian, U.S. House of Representatives, Party Divisions of the House of Representatives (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Party-Divisions/Party-Divisions/)
“With Bulldog, Laxalt, and Johnson winning, I come out to a 51 to 48 GOP advantage”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 100-100 skill
How this was scored
right:
no
race:
2022-senate-nv
election year:
2022
skill:
−100
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Democratic
result from:
fec-2022
who won:
Catherine Cortez Masto
accuracy:
0
baseline:
100
race name:
2022 U.S. Senate election in Nevada
decided in the:
general
they said:
Adam Paul Laxalt
days before the vote when called:
0
difficulty:
1
the winner's party:
“With Bulldog, Laxalt, and Johnson winning, I come out to a 51 to 48 GOP advantage”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 100-100 skill
How this was scored
right:
no
race:
2022-senate-nh
election year:
2022
skill:
−100
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Democratic
result from:
fec-2022
who won:
Maggie Hassan
accuracy:
0
baseline:
100
race name:
2022 U.S. Senate election in New Hampshire
decided in the:
general
they said:
Donald C. Bolduc
days before the vote when called:
0
difficulty:
1
the winner's party:
“my back of the envelope math envisioned a GOP house majority somewhere between two hundred twenty nine and two hundred forty one, and I'm sticking to that”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+100 skill
How this was scored
right:
yes
election year:
2022
skill:
100
topic:
elections
result from:
house: Office of the Historian, U.S. House of Representatives, Party Divisions of the House of Representatives (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Party-Divisions/Party-Divisions/)
chamber:
2022-house
who controls it:
Republican
accuracy:
100
baseline:
0
they said:
Republican
days before the vote when called:
0
difficulty:
1
the naive guess:
the party in control going in keeps it
Election Day:
2022-11-08
“my back of the envelope math envisioned a GOP house majority somewhere between two hundred twenty nine and two hundred forty one, and I'm sticking to that”
Close · 65Scored 65a naive guess scored 55+10 skill
How this was scored
election year:
2022
party:
Republican
seats after:
222
skill:
10
topic:
elections
what happened:
222
in their words:
somewhere between two hundred twenty nine and two hundred forty one
read as:
as written
result from:
house: Office of the Historian, U.S. House of Representatives, Party Divisions of the House of Representatives (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Party-Divisions/Party-Divisions/)
chamber:
2022-house
what they counted:
seats held
accuracy:
65
baseline:
55
days before the vote when called:
0
“I come out to a 51 to 48 GOP advantage by the end of the week with Walker and Warnock headed to a runoff”
Close · 60Scored 60a naive guess scored 80-20 skill
How this was scored
election year:
2022
party:
Republican
seats after:
49
skill:
−20
topic:
elections
what happened:
49
result from:
senate: United States Senate, Party Division (https://www.senate.gov/history/partydiv.htm)
chamber:
2022-senate
what they counted:
seats held
accuracy:
60
baseline:
80
they said:
51
days before the vote when called:
0
difficulty:
1
seats before:
50
the naive guess:
“With Bulldog, Laxalt, and Johnson winning, I come out to a 51 to 48 GOP advantage by the end of the week”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skill
How this was scored
right:
yes
race:
2022-senate-wi
election year:
2022
skill:
0
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Republican
result from:
fec-2022
who won:
Ron Johnson
accuracy:
100
baseline:
100
race name:
2022 U.S. Senate election in Wisconsin
decided in the:
general
they said:
Ron Johnson
days before the vote when called:
0
difficulty:
1
the winner's party:
“you end up with 235 Republicans and 200 Democrats. So put those down as my final prediction numbers”
Miss · 35Scored 35a naive guess scored 55-20 skill
How this was scored
election year:
2022
party:
Democratic
seats after:
213
skill:
−20
topic:
elections
what happened:
213
result from:
house: Office of the Historian, U.S. House of Representatives, Party Divisions of the House of Representatives (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Party-Divisions/Party-Divisions/)
chamber:
2022-house
what they counted:
seats held
accuracy:
35
baseline:
55
they said:
200
days before the vote when called:
0
difficulty:
1
seats before:
“I come out to a 51 to 48 GOP advantage by the end of the week”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 100-100 skill
How this was scored
right:
no
election year:
2022
skill:
−100
topic:
elections
result from:
senate: United States Senate, Party Division (https://www.senate.gov/history/partydiv.htm)
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 100-100 skill
How this was scored
right:
no
race:
2022-senate-nh
election year:
2022
skill:
−100
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Democratic
result from:
fec-2022
who won:
Maggie Hassan
accuracy:
0
baseline:
100
race name:
2022 U.S. Senate election in New Hampshire
decided in the:
general
they said:
Donald C. Bolduc
days before the vote when called:
0
difficulty:
1
the winner's party:
Democratic
“you end up with 235 Republicans and 200 Democrats, so put those down as my final prediction numbers”
Miss · 35Scored 35a naive guess scored 55-20 skill
How this was scored
election year:
2022
party:
Democratic
seats after:
213
skill:
−20
topic:
elections
what happened:
213
result from:
house: Office of the Historian, U.S. House of Representatives, Party Divisions of the House of Representatives (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Party-Divisions/Party-Divisions/)
chamber:
2022-house
what they counted:
seats held
accuracy:
35
baseline:
55
they said:
200
days before the vote when called:
0
difficulty:
1
seats before:
“With Bolduc, Laxalt, and Johnson winning, I come out to a 51–48 GOP advantage by the end of the week”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 100-100 skill
How this was scored
right:
no
election year:
2022
skill:
−100
topic:
elections
result from:
senate: United States Senate, Party Division (https://www.senate.gov/history/partydiv.htm)
chamber:
2022-senate
who controls it:
Democratic
accuracy:
0
baseline:
100
they said:
Republican
days before the vote when called:
0
difficulty:
1
the naive guess:
the party in control going in keeps it
Election Day:
2022-11-08
who controlled it before:
Democratic
“you end up with 235 Republicans and 200 Democrats, so put those down as my final prediction numbers”
Miss · 35Scored 35a naive guess scored 55-20 skill
How this was scored
election year:
2022
party:
Republican
seats after:
222
skill:
−20
topic:
elections
what happened:
222
result from:
house: Office of the Historian, U.S. House of Representatives, Party Divisions of the House of Representatives (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Party-Divisions/Party-Divisions/)
chamber:
2022-house
what they counted:
seats held
accuracy:
35
baseline:
55
they said:
235
days before the vote when called:
0
difficulty:
1
seats before:
“I come out to a 51–48 GOP advantage by the end of the week”
Close · 60Scored 60a naive guess scored 80-20 skill
How this was scored
election year:
2022
party:
Republican
seats after:
49
skill:
−20
topic:
elections
what happened:
49
result from:
senate: United States Senate, Party Division (https://www.senate.gov/history/partydiv.htm)
chamber:
2022-senate
what they counted:
seats held
accuracy:
60
baseline:
80
they said:
51
days before the vote when called:
0
difficulty:
1
seats before:
50
the naive guess:
“With Bolduc, Laxalt, and Johnson winning”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skill
How this was scored
right:
yes
race:
2022-senate-wi
election year:
2022
skill:
0
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Republican
result from:
fec-2022
who won:
Ron Johnson
accuracy:
100
baseline:
100
race name:
2022 U.S. Senate election in Wisconsin
decided in the:
general
they said:
Ron Johnson
days before the vote when called:
0
difficulty:
1
the winner's party:
Republican
“my back-of-the-envelope math envisioned a GOP House majority somewhere between 229 and 241, and I'm sticking to that”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+100 skill
How this was scored
right:
yes
election year:
2022
skill:
100
topic:
elections
result from:
house: Office of the Historian, U.S. House of Representatives, Party Divisions of the House of Representatives (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Party-Divisions/Party-Divisions/)