Noah Compton· Oct 25, 2026
Compton argues the Colts' season is finished and a full rebuild/fire sale is coming, and he expects veteran guard Quenton Nelson — whose contract is expiring — to leave Indianapolis for a fresh start rather than re-sign.
“Nelson has stuck around for multiple rebuilds, and given that he's reached his thirties, a fresh start elsewhere feels most likely.”
published in writing · Sports Illustrated · read the original →
One checkable claim, graded on its own against what actually happened.
The call scored 100 out of 100, against 0 for a naive guess at the same calls.
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1 checkable claim in this take
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- Trade and Signing CallsQuenton NelsonOct 25, 2026
Quenton Nelson to move — “a fresh start elsewhere feels most likely”
“the Colts would likely also like to re-sign future Hall of Fame guard Quenton Nelson to kick off the rebuild, but his expiring contract makes convincing almost impossible. Nelson has stuck around for multiple rebuilds, and given that he's reached his thirties, a fresh start elsewhere feels most likely.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+167 skillHow this was scored
- skill:
- 167
- player:
- Quenton Nelson
- season:
- 2026
- claimed:
- he leaves
- was with:
- IND
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 0
- reported:
- traded → SEA (from IND)
- settled by:
- a confirmed report from the crawl (reported outcomes)
- difficulty:
- 1.67
- the naive guess:
- he stays where he is
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 12
What others said about the same people
- Jason BuechlerTrade and Signing Calls · Quenton NelsonHit · 100Buechler expects the selling Colts to move left guard Quenton Nelson before the trade deadline, and argues the Jets should be the team to acquire him as a low-risk rental who would immediately start at left guard.
- Drake WallyTrade and Signing Calls · Quenton NelsonMiss · 0Despite the midseason firing of GM Chris Ballard, Wally expects the Colts to avoid a fire sale, predicting that core stars such as DeForest Buckner, Sauce Gardner, Jonathan Taylor, Grover Stewart and Quenton Nelson will not be shopped before the trade deadline.
- Jared DubinAvailability Calls · Quenton NelsonPendingDubin picks Seattle to beat Chicago at home on Monday night, forecasting a 24-20 final score, and expects the Seahawks' defense to shut down D'Andre Swift as it did Kenneth Walker.
- Brendon NelsonAvailability Calls · Quenton NelsonPendingReviewing the Friday injury reports, Nelson expects Bears running back Kyle Monangai to miss the upcoming game, thinks cornerback Malik Muhammad has a good chance to play though less than himself, and believes Seattle's Quenton Nelson and Brady Russell are set to suit up.
- Rich HribarDepth Chart Calls · Quenton NelsonPendingIn his Week 8 Bears-Seahawks worksheet, Hribar expects Kyle Monangai to miss another game, plans on Zach Charbonnet making his season debut Monday night, and anticipates Seattle's new offensive line alignment with Quenton Nelson at left guard and Grey Zabel sliding to right guard.
- Albert BreerDepth Chart Calls · Quenton NelsonPendingBreer expects Seattle's offensive line, with Quentin Nelson added at left guard, to become one of the best in football, and he predicts the Eagles will listen on Saquon Barkley but ultimately keep him. He also breaks down Dante Moore's 2027 draft stock, projecting him as a first-rounder no longer seen as the top quarterback in the class, behind CJ Carr and Oklahoma State's quarterback.
More trade and signing calls
The same kind of call, about other players and teams.
- Parker HurleyTrade and Signing Calls · Jessie BatesMiss · 0Hurley argues a Jessie Bates trade to San Francisco is unrealistic because Atlanta remains in the weak NFC South race and likely won't sell, and he expects 49ers safety Ji'Ayir Brown to depart in free agency after this season.
- Doug JoubertTrade and Signing Calls · Kendre MillerHit · 100Joubert doubts Taysom Hill will return to the Saints for financial reasons and believes Hill has retired from the NFL. He also expects CJ Donaldson to get more carries while the Saints move on from Kendre Miller.
- Randy GurziTrade and Signing Calls · Taylor RappMiss · 0Gurzi argues that, given Brandon Beane's fondness for reunions, recently released safety Taylor Rapp is a realistic option to return to Buffalo for safety depth — though only if the Bills fail to land a starting-caliber safety at the trade deadline.
- Sean PaytonTrade and Signing Calls · Taylor RappHit · 100Payton said there is a better than good chance safety Taylor Rapp re-signs with the Broncos, and expects it to happen sooner rather than later.
- Joe MarinoTrade and Signing Calls · Taylor RappHit · 100Marino argues the Bills should and almost certainly will release safety Taylor Rapp to save cap space, saying he'd be stunned if Buffalo kept him.
- Albert BreerTrade and Signing Calls · Jacoby BrissettHit · 100Breer argues the Jaguars should be taken very seriously, seeing a path to 13 wins and the AFC's No. 1 seed with a first-round bye, and he expects the Jacoby Brissett trade to Baltimore to be completed within a day.