Drake Wally· Oct 20, 2026
Despite the midseason firing of GM Chris Ballard, Wally expects the Colts to avoid a fire sale, predicting that core stars such as DeForest Buckner, Sauce Gardner, Jonathan Taylor, Grover Stewart and Quenton Nelson will not be shopped before the trade deadline.
“It's simple: this team is still fighting to win the AFC South and make the playoffs, so don't expect names like DeForest Buckner, Sauce Gardner, Jonathan Taylor, Grover Stewart, or Quenton Nelson to be shopped ahead of the trade deadline.”
published in writing · Sports Illustrated · read the original →
5 checkable claims — 5 trade and signing calls — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call.
It names 6 players and teams, each linked to their own record.
1 of 5 have settled so far, averaging 0 out of 100, against 55 for a naive guess at the same calls.
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Who this take is about
5 checkable claims in this take
Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.
Quenton Nelson to stay with Indianapolis Colts
“don't expect names like DeForest Buckner, Sauce Gardner, Jonathan Taylor, Grover Stewart, or Quenton Nelson to be shopped ahead of the trade deadline”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 55-91.85 skillHow this was scored
- skill:
- −91.85
- player:
- Quenton Nelson
- season:
- 2026
- claimed:
- he stays
- was with:
- IND
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 55
- reported:
- traded → SEA (from IND)
- settled by:
- a confirmed report from the crawl (reported outcomes)
- difficulty:
- 1.67
- the naive guess:
- 55% of players are with the same club the next season
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 12
Jonathan Taylor to stay with Indianapolis Colts
“don't expect names like DeForest Buckner, Sauce Gardner, Jonathan Taylor, Grover Stewart, or Quenton Nelson to be shopped ahead of the trade deadline”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
Grover Stewart to stay with Indianapolis Colts
“don't expect names like DeForest Buckner, Sauce Gardner, Jonathan Taylor, Grover Stewart, or Quenton Nelson to be shopped ahead of the trade deadline”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
Sauce Gardner to stay with Indianapolis Colts
“don't expect names like DeForest Buckner, Sauce Gardner, Jonathan Taylor, Grover Stewart, or Quenton Nelson to be shopped ahead of the trade deadline”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
DeForest Buckner to stay with Indianapolis Colts
“don't expect names like DeForest Buckner, Sauce Gardner, Jonathan Taylor, Grover Stewart, or Quenton Nelson to be shopped ahead of the trade deadline”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
What others said about the same people
- John MiddlekauffDraft Bust Calls · Anthony RichardsonHit · 100Middlekoff's bold predictions, as relayed on the show, have the Patriots and Colts making the playoffs; he also argues the Colts whiffed on Anthony Richardson, comparing him to Trey Lance.
- Chris LongGame Outcome Picks · Indianapolis ColtsMiss · 0Previewing the Week 9 slate, Chris Long expects the Saints to beat Cleveland, the Colts to beat Dallas, New England to edge Green Bay, and Baltimore to beat the Chargers on Monday night. He also calls the Packers a top-10 defense once Micah Parsons returns, names his top six quarterbacks of the season, and expects Brandon Ayuk to be released, with Will Lee and Trevion Henderson sidelined this week.
- Jesse HolleyGame Outcome Picks · Indianapolis ColtsMiss · 0Jesse predicted the Cowboys finish 10-7 but still win the NFC East with 10 wins, picking Dallas over the Giants, Commanders, Texans, Buccaneers, Colts (loss), and losing to Baltimore, Green Bay, Philadelphia twice, Arizona, Seattle and the Rams.
- Danny ParkinsGame Outcome Picks · Indianapolis ColtsMiss · 0Parkins predicted the Cowboys will finish 11-6, starting 5-1 with wins over the Giants, Commanders and an upset of the Ravens, splitting with Philadelphia, and beating Green Bay and Jacksonville, while losing to the Texans, 49ers, Eagles, Colts, Seahawks and Rams.
- Jake ArthurRoster Spot Calls · Johnathan EdwardsMiss · 0Arthur predicted a lopsided Jaguars win over the Colts in Jacksonville, 31-13, continuing the Colts' losing streak there, while offering a 'bold' counter-prediction that Daniel Jones accounts for three touchdowns (two passing, one rushing).
- Noah ComptonTrade and Signing Calls · Quenton NelsonHit · 100Compton argues the Colts' season is finished and a full rebuild/fire sale is coming, and he expects veteran guard Quenton Nelson — whose contract is expiring — to leave Indianapolis for a fresh start rather than re-sign.
More trade and signing calls
The same kind of call, about other players and teams.
- Parker HurleyTrade and Signing Calls · Jessie BatesMiss · 0Hurley argues a Jessie Bates trade to San Francisco is unrealistic because Atlanta remains in the weak NFC South race and likely won't sell, and he expects 49ers safety Ji'Ayir Brown to depart in free agency after this season.
- Doug JoubertTrade and Signing Calls · Kendre MillerHit · 100Joubert doubts Taysom Hill will return to the Saints for financial reasons and believes Hill has retired from the NFL. He also expects CJ Donaldson to get more carries while the Saints move on from Kendre Miller.
- Randy GurziTrade and Signing Calls · Taylor RappMiss · 0Gurzi argues that, given Brandon Beane's fondness for reunions, recently released safety Taylor Rapp is a realistic option to return to Buffalo for safety depth — though only if the Bills fail to land a starting-caliber safety at the trade deadline.
- Sean PaytonTrade and Signing Calls · Taylor RappHit · 100Payton said there is a better than good chance safety Taylor Rapp re-signs with the Broncos, and expects it to happen sooner rather than later.
- Joe MarinoTrade and Signing Calls · Taylor RappHit · 100Marino argues the Bills should and almost certainly will release safety Taylor Rapp to save cap space, saying he'd be stunned if Buffalo kept him.
- Albert BreerTrade and Signing Calls · Jacoby BrissettHit · 100Breer argues the Jaguars should be taken very seriously, seeing a path to 13 wins and the AFC's No. 1 seed with a first-round bye, and he expects the Jacoby Brissett trade to Baltimore to be completed within a day.