Nick Wright#49 of 87 NFL pundits · Oct 16, 2026
Wright picked the Cowboys to beat the Packers in a high-scoring game, backed the Chiefs to handle the winless Chargers, said they are not picking Seattle to miss the playoffs, and laid out their view of upcoming quarterback contracts — no Bo Nix extension this offseason, but quick deals for Caleb Williams and Drake Maye.
Said on air, transcribed by us · First Things First (podcast)Hear the original
What Nick Wright said
our reading, beside the words we read it fromI think the Chiefs are just too foundationally sound Yeah. Too fundamentally sound to lose this game.
- Where it was said
- First Things First (podcast)
- The episode
- Brewers sweep Dodgers, Broncos beat Seahawks, Ohio state vs. Indiana, Upset Alert & Nick’s Picks
- The original
- Hear the original
- Read it wrong?
- Tell us and we will look
- SaidOct 16
- PlayedOct 18
- GradedOct 19
- 1Dallas Cowboys to beat Packers“So I am not as confident in the Packers pass defense as Greg in this particular matchup. And so I like the Cowboys.”
- 2Kansas City Chiefs to beat Chargers“But, I think the Chiefs are just too foundationally sound Yeah. Too fundamentally sound to lose this game when they have two huge road games coming up.”
- 3Bo Nix: “would be stunning if he gets an extension this summer; no way they commit $250,000,000”“I think it would be stunning if he gets an extension at the this summer... Bo Nix, there's no way they commit $250,000,000 to solve it.”
- 4Seattle Seahawks to make the playoffs“And I'm... I also am not picking them right now to miss the playoffs.”
Box score
HitCloseMissWaiting| Verdict | Call | Kind | What happened | Score | Naive | Skill |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dallas Cowboys to beat Packers1 | Game Outcome Picks | Packers 23–13 | 0 | 100 | −172 | |
| Kansas City Chiefs to beat Chargers2 | Game Outcome Picks | Chiefs 22–6 | 100 | 100 | 0 | |
| Bo Nix: “would be stunning if he gets an extension this summer; no way they commit $250,000,000”3 | Contract Calls | — | — | — | — | |
| Seattle Seahawks to make the playoffs4 | Playoff Picks | — | — | — | — | |
| 4 calls · 1 hit · 1 miss · 2 waiting | 50 | 100 | ||||
Game calls show that game’s closing betting line under their grade: a dated fact from nflverse, for context and never part of a grade. MissedTakes takes no bets and earns nothing from any sportsbook.
How each call scored
a naive guessbetter than naiveworse than naive4 checkable claims — 2 game outcome picks, 1 contract call and 1 playoff pick — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call.
It names 5 players and teams, each linked to their own record.
2 of 4 have settled so far, averaging 50 out of 100, against 100 for a naive guess at the same calls.
Each call is scored 0 to 100 against what happened, on its own, by the published methodology. The naive guess is what knowing nothing would have scored on the same calls; the gap, weighted by how hard the call was, is the skill.
1Game Outcome PicksDallas Cowboys
Dallas Cowboys to beat Packers
What happenedPackers 23–13Cowboys at Packers0Miss · naive 1000this call−100a naive guess=−100worse than naive×1.72difficulty=−172skillClosing line (Oct 18): Cowboys by 1.5 · a toss-up, Cowboys 51%, Packers 49%.
Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- won:
- GB
- score:
- 13-23
- skill:
- −172
- they picked:
- DAL
- season:
- 2026
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 100
- the naive pick:
- GB
- difficulty:
- 1.72
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 13
2Game Outcome PicksKansas City Chiefs
Kansas City Chiefs to beat Chargers
What happenedChiefs 22–6Chargers at Chiefs100Hit · naive 100100this call−100a naive guess=0better than naive×1.72difficulty=0skillClosing line (Oct 18): Chiefs by 7.5 · favorite pick, Chiefs about 4 in 5 (79%).
Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- won:
- KC
- score:
- 6-22
- skill:
- 0
- they picked:
- KC
- season:
- 2026
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 100
- the naive pick:
- KC
- difficulty:
- 1.72
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 13
3Contract CallsBo NixDenver Broncos
Bo Nix: “would be stunning if he gets an extension this summer; no way they commit $250,000,000”
VerdictWaitingNot settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
4Playoff PicksSeattle Seahawks
Seattle Seahawks to make the playoffs
VerdictWaitingNot settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
- All
The take as a whole
the average of 2 settled calls, each counted once
50naive 100
The games in this take
every pundit’s pick on eachWho this take is about
Others on the same people
Zack Kelberman · Roster Spot Calls · Sean Fresch Jr. · Miss 0
Kelberman expects Sean Fresch Jr. to clear waivers and return to the Broncos' practice squad, sees Riley Moss back from concussion for the Week 11 game at Las Vegas, and projects newly acquired Daiyan Henley to begin as the third inside linebacker behind Alex Singleton and Justin Strnad before likely moving into a starting role.Zack Kelberman · Roster Spot Calls · Sean Fresch Jr. · Miss 0
Kelberman writes that Riley Moss may sit out the preseason finale against Minnesota but should be available for the Week 1 opener at Kansas City; they also suggest undrafted corners Sean Fresch Jr. and Brent Austin are being evaluated for practice squad spots.Chris Clark · Trade and Signing Calls · Nikko Remigio · Miss 0
Clark expects the Chiefs to bring back exclusive-rights receiver Nico (Remigio) and long snapper James Winchester, to re-sign JuJu Smith-Schuster as a cheap veteran fifth receiver, and not to bring back Hollywood Brown, Josh Dobbs-type depth, Gardner Minshew, Janarius Robinson or Mike Caliendo; they also say the Chiefs will not use a franchise tag and believes Bryan Cook won't return.Chad Jensen · Roster Spot Calls · Jordan Turner · Miss 0
Jensen predicts Daiyan Henley's arrival will cut into Justin Strnad's snaps while Alex Singleton keeps playing virtually every down, and that Denver will return to a three-linebacker rotation after the Week 10 bye. They also expect one of Jordan Turner or Karene Reid — most likely Turner — to be waived to clear a roster spot.Gilberto Manzano · Trade and Signing Calls · Josh Downs · Hit 100
Previewing the trade deadline, he expects Justin Herbert to stay in Los Angeles despite the Chargers' 0–7 start, thinks the Jets will keep Garrett Wilson and pair him with their young weapons, expects a receiver-hungry Kansas City to be aggressive with Josh Downs the likeliest target, and suggests expiring Eagles contracts Moro Ojomo and Riq Woolen could be dealt for mid-round picks.Joshua Poniatowski · Trade and Signing Calls · Josh Downs · Hit 100
Poniatowski names several trade targets, predicting Malik Willis underperforms this week against New England, that Omarion Hampton could become a viable RB2 if Adam Gase takes over play-calling, that Josh Downs gets traded (ideally to Kansas City, where they'd be a top-24 WR), that Brian Thomas Jr. could be dealt to the Rams or 49ers, and that Travis Kelce remains a consistent weekly TE.
More game outcome picks
The same kind of call, about other players and teams.
Sam Monson · Game Outcome Picks · New York Giants · Miss 0
Monson picked every Week 10 game, taking the Giants, Lions, Packers, Panthers, Colts, Texans, Bills, Chiefs, Jaguars, Seahawks, Rams, Cowboys, Bengals and Ravens, and also suggested the Chargers' only likely wins the rest of the way come against the Jets and Dolphins.Eva Geitheim · Game Outcome Picks · Washington Commanders · Hit 100
Geitheim picked the Commanders, Lions, Chiefs, Texans, Vikings, Jaguars, Colts, Panthers, Bills, Seahawks, Rams, 49ers, Bengals and Ravens in Week 10.Conor Orr · Game Outcome Picks · New York Giants · Miss 0
Orr picked the Giants, Lions, Chiefs, Texans, Packers, Jaguars, Dolphins, Panthers, Bills, Seahawks, Rams, 49ers, Bengals and Chargers in Week 10.Albert Breer · Game Outcome Picks · New York Giants · Miss 0
Breer picked all 14 Week 10 games straight up, favoring the Giants, Lions, Chiefs, Texans, Packers, Jaguars, Dolphins, Panthers, Bills, Seahawks, Rams, 49ers, Bengals and Ravens.Mitch Goldich · Game Outcome Picks · New York Giants · Miss 0
Goldich picked the Giants, Lions, Chiefs, Texans, Packers, Jaguars, Dolphins, Panthers, Bills, Seahawks, Rams, 49ers, Bengals and Ravens in Week 10.Matt Verderame · Game Outcome Picks · New York Giants · Miss 0
Verderame picked the Giants, Lions, Chiefs, Texans, Packers, Jaguars, Dolphins, Saints, Bills, Seahawks, Rams, 49ers, Bengals and Ravens in Week 10.