Rich Eisen· Mar 17, 2025
Eisen pushed back on the Bengals missing the playoffs again, insisted the Chiefs still win the AFC West over Denver, predicted Daniel Jones beats out Anthony Richardson to start Week 1 in Indianapolis, and expected Kirk Cousins to stay in Atlanta as the veteran backup to Michael Penix Jr.
“I think he's gonna win the job. And I think he's gonna be the first week starter.”
said on air, transcribed by us · Overreaction Monday (podcast) · read the original →
6 checkable claims — 3 depth chart calls, 1 division winner, 1 playoff pick and 1 roster spot call — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing bet.
It names 7 players and teams, each linked to their own record.
5 of 6 have settled so far, averaging 56.7 out of 100, against 73.3 for a naive guess at the same calls.
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Who this take is about
6 checkable claims in this take
Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.
- Division WinnersKansas City ChiefsMar 17, 2025
Kansas City Chiefs to win the division
“I'm high on the Broncos too, but that's still the Kansas City freaking Chiefs... But that's the Kansas City Chiefs you're talking about, pal. Overreaction.”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skillHow this was scored
- skill:
- 0
- method:
- division winners read off the bracket: the bye teams and the wild-card hosts
- they picked:
- KC
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 0
- the naive pick:
- KC
- difficulty:
- 2
- the naive guess:
- last season's winner of the same division
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- won the division:
- no
Anthony Richardson to be 2nd on the depth chart
“Daniel Jones should beat him out... And if he struggles, then you bring in the kid.”
Hit · 83Scored 83.33a naive guess scored 75+16.67 skillHow this was scored
- club:
- IND
- skill:
- 16.67
- player:
- Anthony Richardson
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 83.33
- baseline:
- 75
- position:
- QB
- naive slot:
- 1
- actual slot:
- 4
- difficulty:
- 2
- measured by:
- passing yards
- the naive guess:
- where he sat last season
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- predicted slot:
- 2
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- Depth Chart CallsKirk CousinsAtlanta FalconsMar 17, 2025
Kirk Cousins to be 2nd on the depth chart
“What's best for the Atlanta Falcons is to make sure that Michael Pennicks junior has Kirk Cousins... in his quarterback room... So if Panix goes down, you know who goes in? Boom. Kirk Cousins.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 91.67+16.67 skillHow this was scored
- club:
- ATL
- skill:
- 16.67
- player:
- Kirk Cousins
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 91.67
- position:
- QB
- naive slot:
- 1
- actual slot:
- 2
- difficulty:
- 2
- measured by:
- passing yards
- the naive guess:
- where he sat last season
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- predicted slot:
- 2
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- Depth Chart CallsDaniel JonesIndianapolis ColtsMar 17, 2025
Daniel Jones to be 1st on the depth chart
“I think he's gonna win the job. And I think he's gonna be the first week starter.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skillHow this was scored
- club:
- IND
- skill:
- 0
- player:
- Daniel Jones
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 100
- position:
- QB
- naive slot:
- 1
- actual slot:
- 1
- difficulty:
- 2
- measured by:
- passing yards
- the naive guess:
- where he sat last season
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- predicted slot:
- 1
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- Playoff PicksCincinnati BengalsMar 17, 2025
Cincinnati Bengals to make the playoffs
“The fact that Trey Hendrickson is not there does not guarantee that 2025 will go just like 2024... I can't sit there and say they start o and three and keep spinning their wheels... I'll call this an overreaction.”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 100-200 skillHow this was scored
- team:
- CIN
- skill:
- -200
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 100
- the naive guess said:
- no
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- made the playoffs:
- no
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- Roster Spot CallsKirk CousinsAtlanta FalconsMar 17, 2025
Kirk Cousins to make the roster
“Midnight has not struck for Kirk Cousins in Atlanta... Do you feel like he's on the Falcons week one? ... I kinda do too.”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
What others said about the same people
- Chris SimmsScore Predictions · Kansas City ChiefsHit · 100Simms went through the entire Week 3 slate with straight-up winners and predicted final scores, taking Jacksonville, Buffalo, Cincinnati, Detroit, Houston, Carolina, Kansas City, Seattle, the Giants, Baltimore, New Orleans, Minnesota, San Francisco, Denver and Philadelphia. He also expected Zay Flowers and Puka Nacua to sit, Kyler Murray to play, and said Marvin Harrison Jr. projects as no better than a good No. 2 or high-end No. 3 receiver.
- Connor RogersGame Outcome Picks · Kansas City ChiefsHit · 100Rogers picked Detroit, Houston, Carolina, Kansas City, Seattle and the Giants to win their Week 3 games, saying the Chiefs win by two touchdowns and the Giants by a field goal.
- Chris LongGame Outcome Picks · Cincinnati BengalsMiss · 0Long liked the Rams over the Broncos on Sunday night even without Puka Nacua, and expected the Bills to beat the winless Chargers in Buffalo. He also backed the Bengals over the Steelers, expected an angry Detroit team to handle the Jets, and still thought both the Lions and Vikings could win the NFC North.
- Jake ArthurScore Predictions · Kansas City ChiefsHit · 98Arthur expects a close Chiefs win on Sunday Night Football at Arrowhead, predicting a final score of 27-23 for Kansas City.
- Zach HicksScore Predictions · Kansas City ChiefsHit · 98Hicks predicts a lower-scoring, field-goal-heavy game with the Chiefs beating the Colts 23-19, citing Indianapolis' red-zone success against Kansas City historically.
- Matt HarmonGame Outcome Picks · Cincinnati BengalsHit · 100Harmon picked the Bengals to beat the Texans in Week 2, expecting Nico Collins to miss the game with a hamstring injury, and also predicted the Titans would be shut out by the Eagles. He took the Rams over the Giants, the Bears over the Vikings, and the Jaguars at Denver.
More depth chart calls
The same kind of call, about other players and teams.
- Pat FitzmauriceDepth Chart Calls · Jonah ColemanMiss · 0In his Week 3 waiver column, Fitzmaurice makes several depth-chart calls around injuries: Jonah Coleman leading Denver's backfield, Marcus Mariota taking over in Washington, Michael Penix Jr. starting once healthy, and Malik Washington serving as Miami's top receiver, plus availability expectations for Detroit's injured safeties.
- Pat FitzmauriceDepth Chart Calls · Aaron JonesHit · 100In previewing the 10 most intriguing fantasy performers of Week 2, Fitzmaurice expects Atlanta's quarterback problems to persist with Tua Tagovailoa unlikely to play and Michael Penix Jr. not ready to return, flags Falcons slot corner Billy Bowman Jr. as a possible Week 2 returnee, and describes Aaron Jones as Minnesota's lead back and Kaelon Black as the clear backup to Christian McCaffrey in San Francisco.
- Matt SeveranceDepth Chart Calls · Deshaun WatsonHit · 100The CBS Sports preview backs Tampa Bay to beat Cleveland in the Bucs' Week 2 home opener, and states that Deshaun Watson — not Shedeur Sanders — will be Cleveland's starting quarterback in Week 2.
- Rafael ZamoranoDepth Chart Calls · Deshaun WatsonHit · 100Zamorano reports Watson will start Week 2 at Tampa Bay and suggests there's little reason to expect improvement, raising the possibility Watson's five-year contract never yields more than single-digit wins.
- Bradley LockerDepth Chart Calls · Carson WentzHit · 100PFF's unsigned adjusted power rankings after Week 1 of the 2026 season place the Bills first, the Rams second and the Dolphins last, with notes on quarterback situations in Seattle, Minnesota and Cleveland.
- Pat FitzmauriceDepth Chart Calls · Rashod BatemanMiss · 0In his Week 2 waiver wire column, Fitzmaurice recommends a slate of pickups he expects to outperform their current rostership (Kaelon Black, Deebo Samuel, Tyler Shough, Geno Smith and others), lays out several depth-chart expectations (Black as the 49ers' No. 2 back, Shedeur Sanders eventually taking over in Cleveland, Penix returning for Atlanta), and flags Fool's Gold/drop candidates such as Mike Gesicki, Kendrick Bourne and Rashid Shaheed.