Jared Dubin#60 of 87 NFL pundits · Sep 14, 2026
The CBS Sports preview picks Denver to win at Arrowhead in Week 1, 21-20, and expects Kenneth Walker III to be Kansas City's lead back while Jaylen Waddle serves as Bo Nix's top receiving target in Denver.
Published in writing · CBS SportsRead the original
What Jared Dubin said
our reading, beside the words we read it fromPick: Broncos 21, Chiefs 20
- Where it was published
- CBS Sports
- The piece
- Chiefs vs. Broncos: Division rivals Patrick Mahomes, Bo Nix make their return in Monday night matchup
- The original
- Read the original
- Read it wrong?
- Tell us and we will look
- SaidSep 14
- PlayedSep 14
- GradedSep 16
- 1Denver Broncos 21 — Chiefs 20“Pick: Broncos 21, Chiefs 20”
- 2Kenneth Walker III to be 1st on the depth chart“Walker has been in a timeshare for most of his career, but is expected to be the full-on lead back in Kansas City.”
- 3Jaylen Waddle to be 1st on the depth chart“now he'll likely be Nix's top target in Denver ... he should operate as the primary option in Sean Payton's passing attack”
Box score
HitCloseMissWaiting| Verdict | Call | Kind | What happened | Score | Naive | Skill |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denver Broncos 21 — Chiefs 201 | Score Predictions | Chiefs 31–10 | 2.38 | 51.93 | −99.11 | |
| Kenneth Walker III to be 1st on the depth chart2 | Depth Chart Calls | — | — | — | — | |
| Jaylen Waddle to be 1st on the depth chart3 | Depth Chart Calls | — | — | — | — | |
| 3 calls · 1 miss · 2 waiting | 2.4 | 51.9 | ||||
Game calls show that game’s closing betting line under their grade: a dated fact from nflverse, for context and never part of a grade. MissedTakes takes no bets and earns nothing from any sportsbook.
How each call scored
a naive guessbetter than naiveworse than naive3 checkable claims — 2 depth chart calls and 1 score prediction — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call.
It names 4 players and teams, each linked to their own record.
1 of 3 have settled so far, averaging 2.4 out of 100, against 51.9 for a naive guess at the same calls.
Of the 2 unsettled calls enough other pundits have weighed in on, this one lands below the rest of the room on every one.
Each call is scored 0 to 100 against what happened, on its own, by the published methodology. The naive guess is what knowing nothing would have scored on the same calls; the gap, weighted by how hard the call was, is the skill.
Where this call stands in the room
Kenneth Walker III · 2026 season18 calls from 15 pundits between 1 and 1. Jared Dubin said 1. the room's median is 1. not settled yet
Every dot is a call somebody published on the same question. Where the dots land says where this take sits, not whether it is right — nothing here is settled yet. Hover a dot for the name and number; click it to read that take.
1Score PredictionsDenver Broncos
Denver Broncos 21 — Chiefs 20
What happenedChiefs 31–10called Broncos by 1 · lost by 212.38Miss · naive 51.932.38this call−51.93a naive guess=−49.55worse than naive×2difficulty=−99.11skillClosing line (Sep 14): Chiefs by 2.5, total 42.5 · this 21–20 calls a Broncos win (by 1; the line gave the Broncos 46%) and fewer points (41).
Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- score:
- 10-31
- skill:
- −99.11
- they picked:
- DEN
- season:
- 2026
- accuracy:
- 2.38
- baseline:
- 51.93
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- actual margin:
- 21
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- naive home margin:
- 0.81
- predicted margin:
- 1
2Depth Chart CallsKenneth Walker IIIKansas City Chiefs
Kenneth Walker III to be 1st on the depth chart
VerdictWaitingNot settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
3Depth Chart CallsJaylen WaddleDenver Broncos
Jaylen Waddle to be 1st on the depth chart
VerdictWaitingNot settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
The game in this take
every pundit’s pick on eachWho this take is about
Others on the same people
Chad Jensen · Roster Spot Calls · Jordan Turner · Miss 0
Jensen predicts Daiyan Henley's arrival will cut into Justin Strnad's snaps while Alex Singleton keeps playing virtually every down, and that Denver will return to a three-linebacker rotation after the Week 10 bye. They also expect one of Jordan Turner or Karene Reid — most likely Turner — to be waived to clear a roster spot.Gilberto Manzano · Trade and Signing Calls · Josh Downs · Hit 100
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After reporting that Colts receiver Josh Downs requested a trade, they identify five clubs as plausible landing spots for them: the Rams, Patriots, Falcons, Chiefs and Raiders, and suggests Las Vegas could also give them a long-term extension.Mike Kadlick · Trade and Signing Calls · Josh Downs · Hit 100
Kadlick names the Chiefs, Patriots and 49ers as the three best trade landing spots for Colts wide receiver Josh Downs ahead of the Nov. 10 deadline.
More depth chart calls
The same kind of call, about other players and teams.
Michael Moore · Depth Chart Calls · Shedeur Sanders · Hit 100
In a Week 9 injury roundup, Moore forecast which banged-up fantasy contributors would play or sit: Deshaun Watson, Garrett Wilson, David Montgomery, Mike Evans, Deebo Samuel, TreVeyon Henderson and Terrance Ferguson are expected out, while Travis Kelce, Saquon Barkley, Michael Wilson, Christian Watson and Emeka Egbuka should play. They also expect Shedeur Sanders and Drew Lock to start at quarterback.Nic Bodiford · Depth Chart Calls · Joe Fagnano · Hit 100
Previewing Week 9 running game matchups, Bodiford expects Jacksonville to win lopsidedly over a depleted Baltimore team, with Bhayshul Tuten sitting out and Chris Rodriguez taking over as lead back, while Joe Fagnano starts at quarterback for the Ravens. They also view Broncos rookie Jonah Coleman as an RB2 going forward.