Anthony Salvanto· Oct 30, 2022
CBS News' elections director said the network's district-by-district estimate has Republicans leading in 228 House districts, enough to win the House majority, and that Democrats show no strong sign of the youth turnout surge that could make the chamber even.
“Right now our latest CBS News estimate is that the Republicans lead in 228 districts. That is enough to take the House majority.”
published in writing · Face the Nation transcripts (CBS News) · read the original →
2 checkable claims — 1 control of congres and 1 seat count — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call.
All 2 have settled, averaging 85 out of 100, against 27.5 for a naive guess at the same calls.
Their call against what happened
228They said
222What happened
Their call against what actually happened.
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2 checkable claims in this take
Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.
- Seat CountsOct 30, 2022
“our latest CBS News estimate is that the Republicans lead in 228 districts”
Close · 70Scored 70a naive guess scored 55+15.15 skillHow this was scored
- election year:
- 2022
- party:
- Republican
- seats after:
- 222
- skill:
- 15.15
- topic:
- elections
- what happened:
- 222
- result from:
- house: Office of the Historian, U.S. House of Representatives, Party Divisions of the House of Representatives (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Party-Divisions/Party-Divisions/)
- chamber:
- 2022-house
- what they counted:
- seats held
- accuracy:
- 70
- baseline:
- 55
- they said:
- 228
- days before the vote when called:
- 8
- difficulty:
- 1.01
- seats before:
- 213
- the naive guess:
- no change from the previous election
- Election Day:
- 2022-11-08
- the naive guess said:
- 213
- Control of CongressOct 30, 2022
“Right now our latest CBS News estimate is that the Republicans lead in 228 districts. That is enough to take the House majority.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+101 skillHow this was scored
- right:
- yes
- election year:
- 2022
- skill:
- 101
- topic:
- elections
- result from:
- house: Office of the Historian, U.S. House of Representatives, Party Divisions of the House of Representatives (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Party-Divisions/Party-Divisions/)
- chamber:
- 2022-house
- who controls it:
- Republican
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 0
- they said:
- Republican
- days before the vote when called:
- 8
- difficulty:
- 1.01
- the naive guess:
- the party in control going in keeps it
- Election Day:
- 2022-11-08
- who controlled it before:
- Democratic
More control of congress
The same kind of call, about other players and teams.
- Tom BevanControl of CongressHit · 100Bevan said Republicans would still take the House and would win the Senate by a margin of one or two seats, that Oz would fall short in Pennsylvania, and gave expected winning margins of roughly eight points for Vance in Ohio, about five for Budd in North Carolina, and a very narrow Walker edge in Georgia.
- Megyn KellyControl of CongressHit · 100Kelly predicted Republicans would win control of the House, that Ron Johnson would hold Wisconsin given Mandela Barnes' record on crime, and that JD Vance would win in Ohio.
- David SacksControl of CongressMiss · 0Sacks forecast a good night for Republicans, saying they would win the House and also take the Senate, driven by the economy and inflation.
- Jim GeraghtyControl of CongressHit · 100Geraghty said Republicans would clearly win the House, but with a majority in the twenties rather than a 40-50 seat wave, and that the GOP would take the Senate by about one seat. He called Budd, Vance and Johnson winners in their Senate races, Kiggans a winner in Virginia's 2nd, Fetterman the likely winner in Pennsylvania, Laxalt the safer GOP bet in Nevada, and liked Walker's odds in a Georgia runoff.
- Simon RosenbergControl of CongressHit · 100Rosenberg, quoted from a weekend post, argued the nonpartisan Senate polling showed no red wave and that Democrats remained favored to win the Senate.
- Doug SchoenControl of CongressHit · 100Schoen predicted a decisive Republican victory: the House with a 30-to-35-seat majority and the Senate with roughly 51 or 52 seats, while saying Kathy Hochul holds a clear advantage in New York and Ron DeSantis wins big in Florida.