Seat Counts

We've got 226 Democrats, 185 Republican seats, 24 toss-up... Yeah. I think, I think these are on the more aggressive side. But, again, when we look at at what we see in the polling right now, it's warranted.

So anything between, like, Republicans getting 48 seats and 51 seats, I think, wouldn't be terribly surprising.

We've got 226 Democrats, 185 Republican seats, 24 toss-up, two eighteen is what's needed for the majority... I think these are on the more aggressive side. But... it's warranted.

I still stand by that the the house majority is somewhere gonna be... Democrats might net between fifteen and twenty or so seats.

not only to keep the Senate majority, but to keep it at 52

10 swing in 2018, for example, delivered the Democrats 41 seats. So maybe it'll be a little bit lower because of gerrymandering. Like, our our model has it at 35.

election forecasting models also pick up on Democratic upsets in the 20-to-30% zone (Florida, South Carolina, Kansas, Nebraska) that drag their median up to 52 seats

Their median outcome today is 52 seats.

The GOP is virtually guaranteed to lose at least one Senate seat it currently holds.

“The GOP is virtually guaranteed to lose at least one Senate seat it currently holds: Facing threats from Trump that he would back a primary challenger, North Carolina Senator Thom Tillis dropped his race for reelection.”

I think best case scenario is they they end up with a tie. You know, and JD Vance can can break ties, but the the idea that they would actually gain seats in the selection seems, at this point, very unlikely.

So to me then, we just need a tie in the senate. I think we can get that.

I believe I had a prediction. What was it? Two or three weeks ago that, Democrats will come out of this with a fifty one forty nine senate majority

I'd say Democrats would pick up at least 25 house seats net and at least six senate seats net today based on talking to campaigns. Could be bigger.

But right now, I'd say Democrats would pick up at least 25 house seats net and at least six senate seats net today based on talking to campaigns. Could be bigger.

And we're not gonna lose the house by '60 like Obama did in 2010. It might be like '25 or '30.

Our model at FiftyPlusOne has a median forecast of +25 seats for Democrats.

I think, you know, Republicans winning three of five of those is probably the safest bet, but there are weird things going on in a couple of those districts, that make me think that Democrats might do a little better than that.

Out of those five districts that Republicans hope to pick up, how many do you think actually go for Republicans in the end... I think probably at least three, I would think, but maybe just three.

Our model at FiftyPlusOne has Democrats at a median of 238 House seats and a 98% chance of the majority.

Pool all three, and the House goes from a coin flip, 218 seats and 51%, to 228 seats and 83%.

you said latest median at the top. 51 seats for Democrats, obviously. But what does that 47 dash 55 mean? That is, their confidence interval.

SENATE : 48 at least Leans R, 47 at least Leans D, 5 Toss-ups.

HOUSE : 210 at least Leans D, 203 at least Leans R, 22 Toss-ups.

HOUSE : 210 at least Leans D, 203 at least Leans R, 22 Toss-ups.