Doug Schoen· Nov 8, 2022

Schoen predicted a decisive Republican victory: the House with a 30-to-35-seat majority and the Senate with roughly 51 or 52 seats, while saying Kathy Hochul holds a clear advantage in New York and Ron DeSantis wins big in Florida.

“I'm predicting... that the Republicans win the house house with a 30 to 35 seat, majority, and they win the senate with probably 51, 52 seats.”

said on air, transcribed by us · The Megyn Kelly Show · read the original →

6 checkable claims — 2 control of congress, 2 seat counts, 1 race margin and 1 race winner — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call.

All 6 have settled, averaging 60 out of 100, against 55.8 for a naive guess at the same calls.

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6 checkable claims in this take

Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.

Control of CongressNov 8, 2022
“the Republicans win the house house with a 30 to 35 seat, majority”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+100 skill
How this was scored
right:
yes
election year:
2022
skill:
100
topic:
elections
result from:
house: Office of the Historian, U.S. House of Representatives, Party Divisions of the House of Representatives (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Party-Divisions/Party-Divisions/)
chamber:
2022-house
who controls it:
Republican
accuracy:
100
baseline:
0
they said:
Republican
days before the vote when called:
0
difficulty:
1
the naive guess:
the party in control going in keeps it
Election Day:
2022-11-08
who controlled it before:
Democratic
Think this is wrong?
Race WinnersNov 8, 2022
“I think it'll be close. I... For the reasons, Matthew suggests, I think Hochul has a clear advantage.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skill
How this was scored
right:
yes
race:
2022-governor-ny
election year:
2022
skill:
0
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Democratic
result from:
wikipedia-2022-governor
who won:
Kathy Hochul
accuracy:
100
baseline:
100
race name:
2022 New York gubernatorial election
decided in the:
general
they said:
Kathy Hochul
days before the vote when called:
0
difficulty:
1
the winner's party:
Democratic
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2022-11-08
the result is:
certified
the party they named:
Democratic
Think this is wrong?
Race MarginsNov 8, 2022
“DeSantis is gonna win a big, potentially double digit, majority tonight”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+100 skill
How this was scored
race:
2022-governor-fl
election year:
2022
skill:
100
topic:
elections
what happened:
19.4
in their words:
a big, potentially double digit, majority
read as:
as written
result from:
wikipedia-2022-governor
who won:
Ron DeSantis
zero credit this far off:
10
what they counted:
margin in points
whose number:
Ron DeSantis
accuracy:
100
baseline:
0
race name:
2022 Florida gubernatorial election
decided in the:
general
days before the vote when called:
0
difficulty:
1
they won:
yes
the naive guess:
the seat's previous margin, or a tie when we do not hold it
Election Day:
2022-11-08
the certified margin:
19.4
their party:
Republican
their range:
10 to 100
the naive guess said:
0
Think this is wrong?
Seat CountsNov 8, 2022
“the Republicans win the house house with a 30 to 35 seat, majority”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 55-55 skill
How this was scored
election year:
2022
party:
Republican
seats after:
222
skill:
−55
topic:
elections
what happened:
9
in their words:
a 30 to 35 seat, majority
read as:
as written
result from:
house: Office of the Historian, U.S. House of Representatives, Party Divisions of the House of Representatives (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Party-Divisions/Party-Divisions/)
chamber:
2022-house
what they counted:
net seats
accuracy:
0
baseline:
55
days before the vote when called:
0
difficulty:
1
seats before:
213
the naive guess:
no change from the previous election
Election Day:
2022-11-08
their range:
30 to 35
the naive guess said:
0
Think this is wrong?
Seat CountsNov 8, 2022
“they win the senate with probably 51, 52 seats”
Close · 60Scored 60a naive guess scored 80-20 skill
How this was scored
election year:
2022
party:
Republican
seats after:
49
skill:
−20
topic:
elections
what happened:
49
in their words:
probably 51, 52 seats
read as:
as written
result from:
senate: United States Senate, Party Division (https://www.senate.gov/history/partydiv.htm)
chamber:
2022-senate
what they counted:
seats held
accuracy:
60
baseline:
80
days before the vote when called:
0
difficulty:
1
seats before:
50
the naive guess:
no change from the previous election
Election Day:
2022-11-08
their range:
51 to 52
the naive guess said:
50
Think this is wrong?
Control of CongressNov 8, 2022
“they win the senate with probably 51, 52 seats”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 100-100 skill
How this was scored
right:
no
election year:
2022
skill:
−100
topic:
elections
result from:
senate: United States Senate, Party Division (https://www.senate.gov/history/partydiv.htm)
chamber:
2022-senate
who controls it:
Democratic
accuracy:
0
baseline:
100
they said:
Republican
days before the vote when called:
0
difficulty:
1
the naive guess:
the party in control going in keeps it
Election Day:
2022-11-08
who controlled it before:
Democratic
Think this is wrong?

More control of congress

The same kind of call, about other players and teams.