Reid Wilson· Oct 29, 2026
Wilson expects several governors to survive or win despite turbulence: Kotek in Oregon, Klobuchar in Minnesota by a narrower margin than expected, Sand winning Iowa by a growing margin, and Ayotte safe in New Hampshire. He also says he would not be surprised if Aaron Ford wins Nevada.
“Well, he's going to win and he's going to win by by an increasingly large margin.”
said on air or in an interview · The Chuck ToddCast · read the original →
5 checkable claims — 5 race winners — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call.
None of them have settled yet — they grade once their results are in.
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5 checkable claims in this take
Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.
- Race WinnersOct 29, 2026
“another candidate who's going to win but not by the margin that she should is Amy Klobuchar in Minnesota. That's going to be a closer race than people think.”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
- Race WinnersOct 29, 2026
“No she's she's a familiar face is rob sand how lonely of a victory is he gonna have. / Well, he's going to win and he's going to win by by an increasingly large margin.”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
- Race WinnersOct 29, 2026
“And I would totally not be surprised if Aaron Ford wins.”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
- Race WinnersOct 29, 2026
“yes, it's going to win. It is like the one Republican incumbent this year who's completely safe and hasn't been terribly close to her Democratic opponents.”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
- Race WinnersOct 29, 2026
“Tina Kotek is way up there. I think she probably wins.”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
More race winners
The same kind of call, about other players and teams.
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