Matthew Yglesias· Oct 26, 2026
Yglesias says he can't tell which way the close battleground races will break, but he is confident that Massachusetts Governor Maura Healey faces no real threat from Republican "MAGA Mike" Minogue, and that Democrats have no credible path to flipping the Mississippi Senate seat Scott Colom is contesting.
“But guys. MAGA Mike Minogue is not going to become governor of Massachusetts.”
published in writing · Slow Boring · read the original →
2 checkable claims — 2 race winners — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call.
None of them have settled yet — they grade once their results are in.
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2 checkable claims in this take
Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.
- Race WinnersOct 26, 2026
“But guys. MAGA Mike Minogue is not going to become governor of Massachusetts... If she were actually facing a meaningful electoral challenge, I'd be all-in on helping her win.”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
- Race WinnersOct 26, 2026
“But the idea that additional fundraising is going to help Democrats flip this Senate seat doesn't seem remotely credible to me”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
More race winners
The same kind of call, about other players and teams.
- Jim GeraghtyRace WinnersMiss · 0Geraghty said Republicans would clearly win the House, but with a majority in the twenties rather than a 40-50 seat wave, and that the GOP would take the Senate by about one seat. He called Budd, Vance and Johnson winners in their Senate races, Kiggans a winner in Virginia's 2nd, Fetterman the likely winner in Pennsylvania, Laxalt the safer GOP bet in Nevada, and liked Walker's odds in a Georgia runoff.
- Megyn KellyRace WinnersHit · 100Kelly predicted Republicans would win control of the House, that Ron Johnson would hold Wisconsin given Mandela Barnes' record on crime, and that JD Vance would win in Ohio.
- Tom BevanRace WinnersHit · 100Bevan said Republicans would still take the House and would win the Senate by a margin of one or two seats, that Oz would fall short in Pennsylvania, and gave expected winning margins of roughly eight points for Vance in Ohio, about five for Budd in North Carolina, and a very narrow Walker edge in Georgia.
- Dennis PragerRace WinnersMiss · 0Asked who a Georgia Senate runoff would favor, Prager said it would favor Herschel Walker, because the contest would effectively be about control of the Senate.
- Megyn KellyRace WinnersMiss · 0Kelly said the worst case for Republicans was taking only the House, predicted Lee Zeldin would win the New York governor's race, and agreed the New Hampshire Republican Senate candidate would win.
- Matt ContinettiRace WinnersHit · 100Continetti forecast a big Republican night: a House gain of 20 to 30 seats or more and three to four Senate pickups, with Ron DeSantis reelected in Florida.