Cynthia Frelund· Oct 3, 2025
Freeland picks the Bills to beat the Patriots by roughly eight or nine points, the Colts to beat the Raiders at home, the Eagles to edge the Broncos by a point, the Chargers to narrowly beat Washington, and Seattle to beat Tampa Bay.
“They're playing the Patriots at home... So I have the Bills by at least eight.”
said on air or in an interview · Around the NFL (podcast) · read the original →
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5 checkable claims — 5 game outcome picks — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing bet.
It names 5 players and teams, each linked to their own record.
All 5 have settled, averaging 20 out of 100, against 20 for a naive guess at the same calls.
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Who this take is about
5 checkable claims in this take
Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.
- Game Outcome PicksBuffalo BillsOct 3, 2025
Buffalo Bills to beat Patriots
“I'm going to start with the Bills... They're playing the Patriots at home... So I have the Bills by at least eight.”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skillHow this was scored
- won:
- NE
- score:
- 23-20
- skill:
- 0
- they picked:
- BUF
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 0
- the naive pick:
- BUF
- difficulty:
- 1.78
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 14
- Game Outcome PicksPhiladelphia EaglesOct 3, 2025
Philadelphia Eagles to beat Broncos
“I think I have the Eagles by one point. That's where the model I set it out”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skillHow this was scored
- won:
- DEN
- score:
- 21-17
- skill:
- 0
- they picked:
- PHI
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 0
- the naive pick:
- PHI
- difficulty:
- 1.78
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 14
- Game Outcome PicksLos Angeles ChargersOct 3, 2025
Los Angeles Chargers to beat Washington
“even though I have the Chargers winning, I want to take Washington with the field goal of points... I do have the Chargers winning, but it's very close”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skillHow this was scored
- won:
- WAS
- score:
- 27-10
- skill:
- 0
- they picked:
- LAC
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 0
- the naive pick:
- LAC
- difficulty:
- 1.78
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 14
- Game Outcome PicksSeattle SeahawksOct 3, 2025
Seattle Seahawks to beat Buccaneers
“I'm actually with you on this one... I feel very confident that Seattle win.”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skillHow this was scored
- won:
- TB
- score:
- 38-35
- skill:
- 0
- they picked:
- SEA
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 0
- the naive pick:
- SEA
- difficulty:
- 1.78
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 14
- Game Outcome PicksIndianapolis ColtsOct 3, 2025
Indianapolis Colts to beat Raiders
“My second pick is the Colts to win by six and a half. More than six and a half. Okay, they're playing the Raiders, they're at home.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skillHow this was scored
- won:
- IND
- score:
- 6-40
- skill:
- 0
- they picked:
- IND
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 100
- the naive pick:
- IND
- difficulty:
- 1.78
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 14
What others said about the same people
- Chris SimmsScore Predictions · Seattle SeahawksMiss · 31Simms went through the entire Week 3 slate with straight-up winners and predicted final scores, taking Jacksonville, Buffalo, Cincinnati, Detroit, Houston, Carolina, Kansas City, Seattle, the Giants, Baltimore, New Orleans, Minnesota, San Francisco, Denver and Philadelphia. He also expected Zay Flowers and Puka Nacua to sit, Kyler Murray to play, and said Marvin Harrison Jr. projects as no better than a good No. 2 or high-end No. 3 receiver.
- Connor RogersGame Outcome Picks · Seattle SeahawksMiss · 0Rogers picked Detroit, Houston, Carolina, Kansas City, Seattle and the Giants to win their Week 3 games, saying the Chiefs win by two touchdowns and the Giants by a field goal.
- Chris LongGame Outcome Picks · Buffalo BillsHit · 100Long liked the Rams over the Broncos on Sunday night even without Puka Nacua, and expected the Bills to beat the winless Chargers in Buffalo. He also backed the Bengals over the Steelers, expected an angry Detroit team to handle the Jets, and still thought both the Lions and Vikings could win the NFC North.
- Nate TiceGame Outcome Picks · Philadelphia EaglesMiss · 0Tice matched his guest on every Week 3 game, picking the Ravens over the Cowboys, the Jaguars over the Patriots in a close game, the Broncos to upset the Rams, the Raiders over the Saints, the Eagles over the Bears and the Lions over the Jets.
- Steven RuizGame Outcome Picks · Philadelphia EaglesMiss · 0Previewing Week 3, Ruiz picked the Ravens to beat the Cowboys in Brazil, Jacksonville over New England in a low-scoring game, an upset by the Broncos over the Rams, the Raiders over the Saints, the Eagles over the Bears, the Lions over the Jets, and his Hail Mary that Houston beats Indianapolis by two touchdowns.
- Sam MonsonGame Outcome Picks · Seattle SeahawksMiss · 0Monson picked the Chargers to beat the Bills outright (jokingly crediting Buffalo's gray 'Nickel City' jerseys), took the Vikings to win outright in Tampa, and said Seattle would destroy Washington. He also reiterated his Super Bowl pick of Denver over the Rams, called the Dolphins destined for the No. 1 overall pick, and said the Saints are a worst-to-first candidate in the NFC South.
More game outcome picks
The same kind of call, about other players and teams.
- Connor RogersGame Outcome Picks · New York GiantsHit · 100Rogers picked Detroit, Houston, Carolina, Kansas City, Seattle and the Giants to win their Week 3 games, saying the Chiefs win by two touchdowns and the Giants by a field goal.
- Chris LongGame Outcome Picks · Cincinnati BengalsMiss · 0Long liked the Rams over the Broncos on Sunday night even without Puka Nacua, and expected the Bills to beat the winless Chargers in Buffalo. He also backed the Bengals over the Steelers, expected an angry Detroit team to handle the Jets, and still thought both the Lions and Vikings could win the NFC North.
- Steven RuizGame Outcome Picks · Las Vegas RaidersHit · 100Previewing Week 3, Ruiz picked the Ravens to beat the Cowboys in Brazil, Jacksonville over New England in a low-scoring game, an upset by the Broncos over the Rams, the Raiders over the Saints, the Eagles over the Bears, the Lions over the Jets, and his Hail Mary that Houston beats Indianapolis by two touchdowns.
- Nate TiceGame Outcome Picks · Baltimore RavensHit · 100Tice matched his guest on every Week 3 game, picking the Ravens over the Cowboys, the Jaguars over the Patriots in a close game, the Broncos to upset the Rams, the Raiders over the Saints, the Eagles over the Bears and the Lions over the Jets.
- Sam MonsonGame Outcome Picks · Minnesota VikingsHit · 100Monson picked the Chargers to beat the Bills outright (jokingly crediting Buffalo's gray 'Nickel City' jerseys), took the Vikings to win outright in Tampa, and said Seattle would destroy Washington. He also reiterated his Super Bowl pick of Denver over the Rams, called the Dolphins destined for the No. 1 overall pick, and said the Saints are a worst-to-first candidate in the NFC South.
- Nate TiceGame Outcome Picks · New England PatriotsHit · 100Tice picked the Bengals over the Texans in a low-scoring game, the Jaguars at Denver, the Bears over the Vikings, the Patriots over the Steelers and the Rams to edge the Giants, and his Hail Mary was the Cowboys scoring 40 on Washington. He also floated Abdul Carter as a possible All-Pro.