Browns: The Quarterback Call Was Right, the Win Picks Keep Missing | MissedTakes Daily
Drafted by a language model from MissedTakes' graded data, then reviewed and approved by Ben Garves before publishing. How our posts are made
Twelve of the 18 pundits we tracked on the Browns-Jets Week 5 matchup picked Cleveland to win. The Jets won, 17-12. Every one of those dozen picks scored zero accuracy, including specific scorelines from John Breech (Browns 20-17), Bobby Kownack (21-19), Brooke Cersosimo (20-18), Dan Parr (19-17), Eric Moody and Pamela Maldonado (both 21-17), plus straight-up calls from Tyler Sullivan, Richard Sherman, Mitchell Eisenstein and Lance Riesland. The six who took the Jets, including Pete Prisco, all landed within a few points of the final score.
That game is the clearest example of a broader weak spot. Game Outcome Picks are the worst-performing call type we track for Cleveland: 25% accuracy across 12 graded calls, with an average skill score well below the baseline of simply picking the home team. Score Predictions for the Browns aren't much better, at 59.9% accuracy and also below that baseline. Both samples are small enough that one bad week can swing them hard, and this one did.
Set those against the categories where Browns coverage has actually earned trust. Depth Chart Calls are 90.4% accurate across 52 graded calls, and Roster Spot Calls are 93.3% across 30. Most of that strength traces to one storyline: naming Deshaun Watson, not Shedeur Sanders, as the Week 1 and Week 2 starter. Rafael Zamorano, Nick Pedone, Mike Florio, Breech, Ryan Wilson, Mark Chichester and Zachary Pereles all called it correctly and in advance, each worth full accuracy and a sizable skill boost because the assumption going in favored a rookie takeover.
Those same voices then stumbled on the sequel. Carter Bahns said twice, in late August, that Sanders would be the Browns' starter by Week 4. Florio separately guessed Sanders would have the job by Week 3. None of that happened, and all three calls came back at zero accuracy.
The position breakdown tells a similar split story. Quarterback calls about the Browns are the most frequent (223 tracked) and comfortably accurate at 73.8%, with a positive skill score. Running back calls are the opposite: 51.1% accuracy and a negative skill score across 62 calls, a mess that tracks with real uncertainty in Cleveland's backfield, with Quinshon Judkins banged up and Dylan Sampson still working back from injured reserve.
Among pundits with at least five graded Browns calls, Pedone (11 graded, 100% accuracy) and Zamorano (eight graded, 100%) have the cleanest Cleveland records, both built heavily on the Watson call. Nick Wright carries the largest sample among the stronger voices, 81.1% accuracy across 17 graded calls. At the other end, The Miz is 8 for 8 graded Browns calls but only 25% accurate, a run that includes a preseason pick of Cleveland to win the Super Bowl that never got off the ground.
Open storylines nobody has settled yet: Jason La Canfora's October 15 case for a Browns upset of the Ravens, and two separate trade proposals sending Jerry Jeudy to Tennessee for Tony Pollard, one from Alex Kay and one unnamed-pundit entry making the same pitch. None of it has a result yet, so none of it belongs on anyone's record, good or bad, until the season says otherwise.
Elsewhere: A Perfect Rams Week and a Lopsided MVP Ballot
We graded 552 takes across the league in the last seven days, most of them Score Predictions (251) and Game Outcome Picks (218). The best of the week came from three different Rams calls that all landed at 100% accuracy: O'Shea Jackson Jr.'s game-by-game run to a 14-3 finish and the NFC West, and similar season-long Rams calls from Rob Bushka and Michael Brockers. The worst of the week clustered around Denver, with Josh Alper, Cody Rourke, Sayre Bedinger, Adam Carlson and Brian Peacock all coming back at zero accuracy on Broncos-adjacent calls.
On last season's MVP ballot, the field got it right: 24 of 68 tracked picks named Matthew Stafford, more than any other player, and he won.
Atop the overall leaderboard, Damonza Byrd leads on MissedTakes Score with 14 graded calls, though Donnie Druin is close behind with the sharpest accuracy of the group, 96.1% across 15 calls. Both samples are still small enough to watch rather than crown. The full leaderboard has the rest.