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Mike Florio created and runs Pro Football Talk, covering NFL player movement, contracts, depth charts and game outcomes. The work appears on ProFootballTalk, NBC Sports, CBS Sports, Sports Illustrated and podcasts including Around the NFL, Pardon My Take and The Rich Eisen Podcast. Florio has written on the Bears, Cowboys, Eagles, Vikings and other clubs, and predictions have addressed Caleb Williams, Shedeur Sanders and Patrick Mahomes.
More about Mike Florio ↓Writes at ProFootballTalk
Across 40 graded calls in 17 articles, Mike Florio scores 64.67% accuracy and a MissedTakes Score of 45.89, which means their calls were better than a naive guess on the same claims.
That is a limited sample, under thirty graded articles, so treat it with caution. That ranks #15 of 87 ranked NFL pundits on the MissedTakes leaderboard. Their strongest kind of call is Game Outcome Picks (55.56% accuracy across 10 graded calls); their weakest is Score Predictions (42.63% across 17 graded calls).
How accurate are NFL experts overall? →
Every number here is computed from the published methodology, and every call below opens to its own arithmetic.
All 145 calls · one square per call
19hits48% of graded
10Close25%
11misses28%
How much better than a naive guess on the same claims. This is the ranking.
Teams and players where Mike Florio keeps landing outside the room: at least twice, their call sat beyond every other pundit who made a comparable one — higher or lower than all of them, in a room of at least five voices. The bar is their standing lean (+100 would be the most bullish voice in every room), and the accuracy covers just those out-on-a-limb calls, once they settle.
Outside the room in 4 of 8 articles — always lower · the strays aren’t settled yet
Mike Florio created and runs Pro Football Talk, covering NFL player movement, contracts, depth charts and game outcomes. The work appears on ProFootballTalk, NBC Sports, CBS Sports, Sports Illustrated and podcasts including Around the NFL, Pardon My Take and The Rich Eisen Podcast. Florio has written on the Bears, Cowboys, Eagles, Vikings and other clubs, and predictions have addressed Caleb Williams, Shedeur Sanders and Patrick Mahomes.
A longer profile is written once a record reaches 30 graded articles, and published only after a person reviews it.
40 graded calls in 17 articles, newest first — page 1 of 2. Every take from Mike Florio, including the ones still waiting →
Game calls show that game’s closing betting line under their grade: a dated fact from nflverse, for context and never part of a grade. MissedTakes takes no bets and earns nothing from any sportsbook.
105waitingnot graded yet
The same 87, by how often their calls landed, with no credit for difficulty.
Why the ranks differ: a naive guess scores very differently depending on which calls were made, from 15.25% on the hardest record here to 85.71% on the easiest. Accuracy alone flatters easy calls, so by accuracy Mike Florio would be #37; the Score measures the lift over a naive guess on the same calls, and that puts this record at #15.
| # | Pundit | Score | Accuracy | Graded |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Gennaro Filice | 47.94 | 66.91% | 38 |
| 14 | Hondo Carpenter | 46.67 | 70% | 13 |
| 15 | Mike Florio | 45.89 | 64.67% | 40 |
| 16 | Mike Kadlick | 41.13 | 56.03% | 46 |
| 17 | Nate Tice | 38.36 | 69.01% | 71 |
Outside the room in 3 of 7 articles — always lower · the strays aren’t settled yet
Outside the room in 3 of 7 articles — always lower · the strays aren’t settled yet
Outside the room in 2 of 7 articles — always lower · the strays aren’t settled yet
Jake Moody to land on the practice squad
“Jake Moody is currently on the Baltimore practice squad. He'd presumably be signed to the 53-man roster if/when Loop ends up on injured reserve.”
Los Angeles Rams to beat Chargers
“The Rams should get their fourth win of the season on Sunday, against the 0-6 Chargers.”
Closing line (Nov 1): Rams by 6.5 · favorite pick, Rams 71%.
Seattle Seahawks to beat Chicago Bears
“Mike Florio, PFT : Seattle Seahawks”
Closing line (Nov 2): Seahawks by 3 · favorite pick, Seahawks 60%.
Blake Grupe to move — “the hit will apparently end Grupe's time with the Rams”
“Either way, the hit will apparently end Grupe's time with the Rams. The next question is whether they'll bring back Harrison Mevis or look elsewhere for help.”
Indianapolis Colts 27 — Titans 10
“Pro Football Talk: Colts 27, Titans 10”
Closing line (Oct 18): Colts by 6.5, total 43.5 · this 27–10 calls a bigger Colts win (by 17) and fewer points (37).
Indianapolis Colts to beat Titans
“the Colts should move to 3-3 this weekend with a home game against the 0-5 Titans”
Closing line (Oct 18): Colts by 6.5 · favorite pick, Colts 72%.
Los Angeles Rams to beat Cardinals
“The next game is on Sunday, against the Cardinals. ... All are winnable, which could boost the Rams to 5-3.”
Closing line (Oct 18): Rams by 12.5 · favorite pick, Rams about 5 in 6 (84%).
Los Angeles Rams to beat Chargers
“followed by a home game against the Chargers. All are winnable, which could boost the Rams to 5-3.”
Los Angeles Rams to beat Raiders
“After that, the Rams visit the Raiders ... All are winnable, which could boost the Rams to 5-3.”
Marvin Harrison Jr. to stay put
“It's becoming more and more clear he won't be playing for the Cardinals... Regardless, it's hard to imagine Harrison staying with the Cardinals given these developments. At this point, it's just a matter of the Cardinals getting the best return they can.”