Bob Vander Plaats

Writes at Steve Deace Show

Is Bob Vander Plaats accurate? Across 3 graded calls in 2 articles, Bob Vander Plaats scores 86.98% accuracy and a MissedTakes Score of 46.22, which means their calls were better than a naive guess on the same claims. That is a provisional record, fewer than ten graded articles, so the numbers are not yet meaningful and they are not ranked on the leaderboard.

86.98%

Accuracy

How often they were right.

46.22

MissedTakes Score

Versus a naive guess. 0 means no better.

3

Graded calls

across 2 articles. 1 more not yet settled.

Fewer than 10 graded articles. Treat this as provisional.

Every number here is computed from the published methodology, and every call below shows its own arithmetic.

Graded calls · 3

He rejected the Selzer Iowa poll and predicted Trump would carry Iowa by high single digits, win the presidency convincingly, and approach 300 electoral votes.2 graded calls · Nov 4, 2024
- “where things were at in Iowa the way I thought that, you know, Trump should win between somewhere between five and eight or eight and ten points, the state of Iowa”
  Close · 48Scored 47.9a naive guess scored 49.9-2 skill
  How this was scored
  race:
  2024-president-ia
  election year:
  2024
  skill:
  -2
  topic:
  elections
  what happened:
  13.21
  in their words:
  somewhere between five and eight or eight and ten points
  result from:
  fec-2024-president
  who won:
  Donald Trump
  zero credit this far off:
  10

what they counted:

margin_points

whose number:

Donald Trump

accuracy:

47.9

baseline:

49.9

race name:

2024 U.S. presidential election in Iowa

decided in the:

general

days before the vote when called:

0

difficulty:

1

they won:

yes

the naive guess:

the seat's previous margin, or a tie when we do not hold it

Election Day:

2024-11-05

the certified margin:

13.21

their party:

Republican

their range:

5,8

the naive guess said:

8.2

Think this grade is wrong?

“I think this is gonna be a convincing win, tomorrow night. ... he looks like he's gonna win the popular vote, and he's gonna win probably most of those key states.”

Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+100 skill

How this was scored

right:: yes
race:: 2024-president
election year:: 2024
skill:: 100
topic:: elections
held going in by:: Democratic
result from:: fec-2024-president
who won:: Donald Trump
accuracy:: 100
baseline:: 0
race name:: 2024 U.S. presidential election
decided in the:: electoral-college
they said:: Donald Trump
days before the vote when called:: 0
difficulty:: 1
the winner's party:: Republican
the naive guess:: the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:: 2024-11-05
the result is:: certified
the party they named:: Republican

Think this grade is wrong?

Interviewed on the show, Vander Plaats said Trump has momentum heading into Election Day and will win decisively, finishing above 300 electoral votes, while Harris's campaign collapses.Oct 28, 2024

“I said, I think Trump will go north of 300. I think he's gonna win, I think he's gonna win big.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 57+43.43 skill
How this was scored
race:
2024-president
election year:
2024
skill:
43.43
topic:
elections
what happened:
312
in their words:
north of 300
result from:
fec-2024-president
who won:
Donald Trump
zero credit this far off:
100
what they counted:
electoral_votes
whose number:
Donald Trump
accuracy:
100
baseline:
57
race name:
2024 U.S. presidential election
decided in the:
electoral-college
days before the vote when called:
7
difficulty:
1.01
they won:
yes
the naive guess:
half the electoral college
Election Day:
2024-11-05
the certified margin:
86
their party:
Republican
their range:
300,538
the naive guess said:
269
Think this grade is wrong?