Bob Vander Plaats· Oct 28, 2024
Interviewed on the show, Vander Plaats said Trump has momentum heading into Election Day and will win decisively, finishing above 300 electoral votes, while Harris's campaign collapses.
“I said, I think Trump will go north of 300.”
said on air, transcribed by us · Steve Deace Show · read the original →
One checkable claim, graded on its own against what actually happened.
The call scored 100 out of 100, against 57 for a naive guess at the same calls.
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1 checkable claim in this take
Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.
- Race MarginsOct 28, 2024
“I said, I think Trump will go north of 300. I think he's gonna win, I think he's gonna win big.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 57+43.43 skillHow this was scored
- race:
- 2024-president
- election year:
- 2024
- skill:
- 43.43
- topic:
- elections
- what happened:
- 312
- in their words:
- north of 300
- result from:
- fec-2024-president
- who won:
- Donald Trump
- zero credit this far off:
- 100
- what they counted:
- electoral_votes
- whose number:
- Donald Trump
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 57
- race name:
- 2024 U.S. presidential election
- decided in the:
- electoral-college
- days before the vote when called:
- 7
- difficulty:
- 1.01
- they won:
- yes
- the naive guess:
- half the electoral college
- Election Day:
- 2024-11-05
- the certified margin:
- 86
- their party:
- Republican
- their range:
- 300,538
- the naive guess said:
- 269
More race margins
The same kind of call, about other players and teams.
- Sam WangRace MarginsHit · 88Live-blogging election night, Wang called Iowa for Trump by 12 points, said the presidential race was headed toward Trump, and read partial House returns as showing Democratic pickups in five districts and Republican pickups in two, with overall House control still undetermined.
- Steve DeaceRace MarginsHit · 100On Election Day, Deace said he believes Trump will win the presidency, and that rather than a split decision across the seven battleground states, one candidate will sweep five, six or all of them. He also took the 'over' on Trump exceeding his 2016 popular-vote share of 46%.
- Henry OlsenRace MarginsHit · 85Olsen's final call: Harris narrowly wins the national popular vote while Trump wins the electoral college 297-241, taking six of the seven swing states, with Michigan the one he is least likely to crack. He also forecast Republicans ending with 54-55 Senate seats and holding a narrow House majority.
- David FrumRace MarginsClose · 72Frum predicted Trump would take about 47 percent of the national vote and again be rejected by a majority, and that Arizona would deliver a bad surprise for Democrats with voters backing Trump while rejecting Kari Lake's Senate bid.
- Tim MillerRace MarginsClose · 50Miller predicted Kamala Harris would hold the blue wall states and Nevada and win a narrow Electoral College victory with 276 electoral votes, while also saying Florida and Texas would stay out of reach for Democrats.
- Robby SoaveRace MarginsClose · 56Soave forecast the narrowest possible Electoral College outcome, 270-268 for Kamala Harris, with Harris holding the three blue wall states including Pennsylvania while Trump flips Nevada, Arizona and Georgia.