Bob Vander Plaats· Nov 4, 2024
He rejected the Selzer Iowa poll and predicted Trump would carry Iowa by high single digits, win the presidency convincingly, and approach 300 electoral votes.
“I believe he's a knock on the door of 300 electoral college votes. I think this is gonna be a convincing win, tomorrow night.”
said on air, transcribed by us · Steve Deace Show · read the original →
3 checkable claims — 2 race margins and 1 race winner — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing bet.
2 of 3 have settled so far, averaging 74 out of 100, against 25 for a naive guess at the same calls.
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3 checkable claims in this take
Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.
- Race WinnersNov 4, 2024
“I think this is gonna be a convincing win, tomorrow night. ... he looks like he's gonna win the popular vote, and he's gonna win probably most of those key states.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+100 skillHow this was scored
- right:
- yes
- race:
- 2024-president
- election year:
- 2024
- skill:
- 100
- topic:
- elections
- held going in by:
- Democratic
- result from:
- fec-2024-president
- who won:
- Donald Trump
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 0
- race name:
- 2024 U.S. presidential election
- decided in the:
- electoral-college
- they said:
- Donald Trump
- days before the vote when called:
- 0
- difficulty:
- 1
- the winner's party:
- Republican
- the naive guess:
- the party holding the seat keeps it
- Election Day:
- 2024-11-05
- the result is:
- certified
- the party they named:
- Republican
- Race MarginsNov 4, 2024
“where things were at in Iowa the way I thought that, you know, Trump should win between somewhere between five and eight or eight and ten points, the state of Iowa”
Close · 48Scored 47.9a naive guess scored 49.9-2 skillHow this was scored
- race:
- 2024-president-ia
- election year:
- 2024
- skill:
- -2
- topic:
- elections
- what happened:
- 13.21
- in their words:
- somewhere between five and eight or eight and ten points
- result from:
- fec-2024-president
- who won:
- Donald Trump
- zero credit this far off:
- 10
- what they counted:
- margin_points
- whose number:
- Donald Trump
- accuracy:
- 47.9
- baseline:
- 49.9
- race name:
- 2024 U.S. presidential election in Iowa
- decided in the:
- general
- days before the vote when called:
- 0
- difficulty:
- 1
- they won:
- yes
- the naive guess:
- the seat's previous margin, or a tie when we do not hold it
- Election Day:
- 2024-11-05
- the certified margin:
- 13.21
- their party:
- Republican
- their range:
- 5,8
- the naive guess said:
- 8.2
- Race MarginsNov 4, 2024
“I still believe at the end of the day, Trump is gonna knock on the door of winning the popular vote, which will be the first Republican who's done that in quite a while, and I believe he's a knock on the door of 300 electoral college votes.”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
More race margins
The same kind of call, about other players and teams.
- Sam WangRace MarginsHit · 88Live-blogging election night, Wang called Iowa for Trump by 12 points, said the presidential race was headed toward Trump, and read partial House returns as showing Democratic pickups in five districts and Republican pickups in two, with overall House control still undetermined.
- Steve DeaceRace MarginsHit · 100On Election Day, Deace said he believes Trump will win the presidency, and that rather than a split decision across the seven battleground states, one candidate will sweep five, six or all of them. He also took the 'over' on Trump exceeding his 2016 popular-vote share of 46%.
- Henry OlsenRace MarginsHit · 85Olsen's final call: Harris narrowly wins the national popular vote while Trump wins the electoral college 297-241, taking six of the seven swing states, with Michigan the one he is least likely to crack. He also forecast Republicans ending with 54-55 Senate seats and holding a narrow House majority.
- David FrumRace MarginsClose · 72Frum predicted Trump would take about 47 percent of the national vote and again be rejected by a majority, and that Arizona would deliver a bad surprise for Democrats with voters backing Trump while rejecting Kari Lake's Senate bid.
- Tim MillerRace MarginsClose · 50Miller predicted Kamala Harris would hold the blue wall states and Nevada and win a narrow Electoral College victory with 276 electoral votes, while also saying Florida and Texas would stay out of reach for Democrats.
- Robby SoaveRace MarginsClose · 56Soave forecast the narrowest possible Electoral College outcome, 270-268 for Kamala Harris, with Harris holding the three blue wall states including Pennsylvania while Trump flips Nevada, Arizona and Georgia.