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Writes at The David Pakman Show
Is David Pakman accurate? Across 16 graded calls in 7 articles, David Pakman scores 78.57% accuracy and a MissedTakes Score of 22.03, which means their calls were better than a naive guess on the same claims. That is a provisional record, fewer than ten graded articles, so the numbers are not yet meaningful and they are not ranked on the leaderboard.
Fewer than 10 graded articles. Treat this as provisional.
100% of their claims were specific enough to check. Most of what they said committed to something.
Every number here is computed from the published methodology, and every call below shows its own arithmetic.
“As far as the Senate goes, it seems clear the Senate Senate is going to be going to Republicans... I expect Republicans to have control of the Senate.”
“Could it be North Carolina? It could if Harris were to win, but it doesn't look like she will.”
“First of all, I mean, taking a very pragmatic approach, Virginia is likely to go blue regardless of the voter purges that are going on. Virginia is unlikely to be the deciding state.”
“There's a very interesting race in Texas over on the Senate side, which is Ted Cruz again struggling to defend his seat... Now if you just said fifty fifty bet who wins, I think the numbers still favor Ted Cruz.”
“Carrie Lake is about to lose her race for senate in Arizona... In all likelihood, Carrie Lake will be defeated once again... So Kari Lake lost in 2022, will almost certainly lose in 2024”
“And similarly, Trump is not going to win New York. Trump is lying and saying we might win New York and New Jersey, but he is not going to.”
“Florida has 1,200,000 Puerto Rican people living within it. But most likely, Florida is gone to Trump.”
“Massachusetts has 330,000 Puerto Ricans. Massachusetts is going to go to Harris.”
“The election will not depend on New Jersey, which has nearly half a million Puerto Ricans. Kamala Harris is going to win that.”
“So first of all, if Trump wins, he's not going to win with 50% plus one vote. He's... Trump's going to lose the popular vote almost certainly, but he might win electorally.”
“It's the 2020 map with probably Georgia flipped to Trump.”
“In Pennsylvania, Trump is leading by less than one. He's leading, but by less than one. I'm certainly not ready to flip it.”
“I'm not ready to flip Wisconsin. Trump's leading by only 0.4 there.”
“Likely Arizona flipped to Trump”
“Even if Trump does get New Hampshire, which he probably won't”
“If if you said, David, give me the most likely outcome today. It's a map. It's the 2020 map with probably Georgia flipped to Trump. Likely Arizona flipped to Trump... Harris still wins in that scenario, but with a smaller margin than Biden”