David Pakman· Oct 30, 2024
Pakman said that while Ted Cruz is being forced to defend his Texas Senate seat against Colin Allred in a tighter-than-expected race, the numbers still point to Cruz winning. He also called the presidential race a coin flip, declining to pick a winner.
“Now if you just said fifty fifty bet who wins, I think the numbers still favor Ted Cruz.”
said on air, transcribed by us · The David Pakman Show · read the original →
One checkable claim, graded on its own against what actually happened.
The call scored 100 out of 100, against 100 for a naive guess at the same calls.
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1 checkable claim in this take
Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.
- Race WinnersOct 30, 2024
“There's a very interesting race in Texas over on the Senate side, which is Ted Cruz again struggling to defend his seat... Now if you just said fifty fifty bet who wins, I think the numbers still favor Ted Cruz.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skillHow this was scored
- right:
- yes
- race:
- 2024-senate-tx
- election year:
- 2024
- skill:
- 0
- topic:
- elections
- held going in by:
- Republican
- result from:
- wikipedia-2024-senate
- who won:
- Ted Cruz
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 100
- race name:
- 2024 U.S. Senate election in Texas
- decided in the:
- general
- they said:
- Ted Cruz
- days before the vote when called:
- 5
- difficulty:
- 1.01
- the winner's party:
- Republican
- the naive guess:
- the party holding the seat keeps it
- Election Day:
- 2024-11-05
- the result is:
- certified
- the party they named:
- Republican
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