Loading…
Loading…
Writes at Split Ticket
Is Lakshya Jain accurate? Across 58 graded calls in 4 articles, Lakshya Jain scores 49.99% accuracy and a MissedTakes Score of 6.38, which means their calls were better than a naive guess on the same claims. That is a provisional record, fewer than ten graded articles, so the numbers are not yet meaningful and they are not ranked on the leaderboard.
Fewer than 10 graded articles. Treat this as provisional.
100% of their claims were specific enough to check. Most of what they said committed to something.
Every number here is computed from the published methodology, and every call below shows its own arithmetic.
1 of 4 graded articles on this page, newest first — page 1 of 2.
“our model views this race as a tossup, with Kamala Harris as a nominal favorite (making her our pick for the presidency). We give her a 53% chance of winning”
“Republicans will flip West Virginia”
“with a 52 Republican, 48 Democratic Senate if we eliminate toss ups”
“with a 52 Republican, 48 Democratic Senate if we eliminate toss ups”
“substantial, but not overwhelming, leads in Montana, Texas, Florida, and Nebraska, all of which are rated Leans Republican”
“Our final forecast gives Republicans a 73% chance to take the Senate”
“given that we think Trump wins Ohio by 8 again”
“Democrats in Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and possibly Arizona and Nevada, which are all rated Leans Democratic”
“Democrats in Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and possibly Arizona and Nevada, which are all rated Leans Democratic”
“project her to win 270 electoral votes”
“the “Blue Wall” states of Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania are the most likely to carry her to victory”
“the “Blue Wall” states of Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania are the most likely to carry her to victory”
“In North Carolina, mid-decade redistricting has all but netted the GOP three seats (NC-06, NC-13, NC-14)”
“In North Carolina, mid-decade redistricting has all but netted the GOP three seats (NC-06, NC-13, NC-14)”
“Only one Democratic incumbent is at a slight disadvantage (despite a titanic fundraising edge): Marie Gluesenkamp Perez (WA-03).”
“Democrats in Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and possibly Arizona and Nevada, which are all rated Leans Democratic”
“substantial, but not overwhelming, leads in Montana, Texas, Florida, and Nebraska, all of which are rated Leans Republican”
“substantial, but not overwhelming, leads in Montana, Texas, Florida, and Nebraska, all of which are rated Leans Republican”
“Our model has Moreno as the slightest of favorites, with a 56% chance to win”
“Our model sees this race as Safe Democratic.”
“Democrats end up with a razor-thin 219–216 majority”
“Democrats are strongly favored to pick up AL-02 but even more so LA-06”
“Democrats are strongly favored to pick up AL-02 but even more so LA-06”
“The seat is currently rated Likely Democratic , with Democrat Laura Gillen expected to notch a comfortable victory on election night.”
“Republicans Marc Molinaro (NY-19) and Brandon Williams (NY-22) are also underdogs.”
“Republicans Marc Molinaro (NY-19) and Brandon Williams (NY-22) are also underdogs. ... In NY-22 , where our model gives Democrats better chances at winning”
“We expect Democrat Tony Vargas to be carried over the line.”
“In California, Democrats are favored to unseat John Duarte (CA-13) and Mike Garcia (CA-27)”
“In California, Democrats are favored to unseat John Duarte (CA-13) and Mike Garcia (CA-27)”
“The two incumbent Republicans who are favored to lose in tossup races ... are Lori Chavez-DeRemer (OR-05) and David Valadao (CA-22).”
“a note on Indiana, which remains Likely Republican in our ratings ... partisanship should carry Braun over the top”
“the “Blue Wall” states of Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania are the most likely to carry her to victory”
“if we had to pick, we would go with Tilt Republican here”
“North Carolina, is also home to a Safe Democratic gubernatorial election”
“where Republican John James is favored to win a rematch against Democrat Carl Marlinga”
“Republican Tom Barrett is favored to flip MI-07”
“The two incumbent Republicans who are favored to lose in tossup races ... are Lori Chavez-DeRemer (OR-05) and David Valadao (CA-22).”
“In North Carolina, mid-decade redistricting has all but netted the GOP three seats (NC-06, NC-13, NC-14)”
“Democrats end up with a razor-thin 219–216 majority”
“Our final forecast gives Democrats a 53% chance of retaking the House”
“Democrats in Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and possibly Arizona and Nevada, which are all rated Leans Democratic”
“Democrats in Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and possibly Arizona and Nevada, which are all rated Leans Democratic”
“our model sees Fischer as the favorite ... Montana, Texas, Florida, and Nebraska, all of which are rated Leans Republican”