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Writes at The Inside Elections Podcast
Is Jacob Rubashkin accurate? Across 12 graded calls in 2 articles, Jacob Rubashkin scores 80.36% accuracy and a MissedTakes Score of 25.96, which means their calls were better than a naive guess on the same claims. That is a provisional record, fewer than ten graded articles, so the numbers are not yet meaningful and they are not ranked on the leaderboard.
Fewer than 10 graded articles. Treat this as provisional.
100% of their claims were specific enough to check. Most of what they said committed to something.
Every number here is computed from the published methodology, and every call below shows its own arithmetic.
“Like you said, Republicans are still favored to take control of the senate this year.”
“A a a tilt Republican district in our ratings.”
“as of next year, we'll almost certainly be represented by Democrat Sarah Elfreth”
“Those were two ads from Iowa's 1st Congressional District, which we moved from toss-up to tilt Democratic.”
“I think Harris... You'd still rather be Harris than Trump at this point.”
“In New York's 22nd District, we moved New York Republican Brandon Williams from tilt democratic where he was already an underdog to lean democratic”
“in Texas' 34th District, we moved congressman Vicente Gonzalez, a democrat, from likely Democratic to lean Democratic”
“the the rating changed, from likely Republican to lean Republican. So one click less favorable to Deb Fischer, the incumbent senator... We still clearly see Fisher as favored.”
“we moved California's 13th District, congressman John Duarte, a Republican, out of toss-up into tilt Democratic. That would be a flip.”
“in Ohio's 13th District, we moved, Democrat Amelia Sykes from tilt democratic to lean democratic”
“In Nevada's 4th District, we moved democrat Stephen Horsford from likely democratic off the board to solid democratic.”
“We already have them favored in New York, 22, and in Nebraska's 2nd District.”