Jacob Rubashkin· Oct 25, 2024

Walking through Inside Elections' latest ratings changes, Rubashkin kept Nebraska's Senate race leaning toward Deb Fischer despite independent Dan Osborn's rise, and shifted eight House races: Democrats now favored in California's 13th (a flip), Nevada's 4th, New York's 22nd, Ohio's 13th and Texas' 34th. He also said Democrats are already favored in Nebraska's 2nd District.

“We still clearly see Fisher as favored.”

said on air, transcribed by us · The Inside Elections Podcast · read the original →

7 checkable claims — 7 race winners — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing bet.

All 7 have settled, averaging 85.7 out of 100, against 71.4 for a naive guess at the same calls.

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7 checkable claims in this take

Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.

Race WinnersOct 25, 2024
“We already have them favored in New York, 22, and in Nebraska's 2nd District.”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 100-101 skill
How this was scored
right:
no
race:
2024-house-ne-02
election year:
2024
skill:
-101
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Republican
in their words:
favored
result from:
wikipedia-2024-house
who won:
Don Bacon
accuracy:
0
baseline:
100
race name:
2024 U.S. House election in Nebraska's district 2
decided in the:
general
they said:
Tony Vargas
days before the vote when called:
10
difficulty:
1.01
the winner's party:
Republican
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2024-11-05
the result is:
certified
the party they named:
Democratic
Think this is wrong?
Race WinnersOct 25, 2024
“In Nevada's 4th District, we moved democrat Stephen Horsford from likely democratic off the board to solid democratic.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skill
How this was scored
right:
yes
race:
2024-house-nv-04
election year:
2024
skill:
0
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Democratic
in their words:
solid democratic
result from:
wikipedia-2024-house
who won:
Steven Horsford
accuracy:
100
baseline:
100
race name:
2024 U.S. House election in Nevada's district 4
decided in the:
general
they said:
Steven Horsford
days before the vote when called:
10
difficulty:
1.01
the winner's party:
Democratic
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2024-11-05
the result is:
certified
the party they named:
Democratic
Think this is wrong?
Race WinnersOct 25, 2024
“in Ohio's 13th District, we moved, Democrat Amelia Sykes from tilt democratic to lean democratic”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skill
How this was scored
right:
yes
race:
2024-house-oh-13
election year:
2024
skill:
0
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Democratic
in their words:
lean democratic
result from:
wikipedia-2024-house
who won:
Emilia Sykes
accuracy:
100
baseline:
100
race name:
2024 U.S. House election in Ohio's district 13
decided in the:
general
they said:
Emilia Sykes
days before the vote when called:
10
difficulty:
1.01
the winner's party:
Democratic
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2024-11-05
the result is:
certified
the party they named:
Democratic
Think this is wrong?
Race WinnersOct 25, 2024
“In New York's 22nd District, we moved New York Republican Brandon Williams from tilt democratic where he was already an underdog to lean democratic”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+101 skill
How this was scored
right:
yes
race:
2024-house-ny-22
election year:
2024
skill:
101
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Republican
in their words:
lean democratic
result from:
wikipedia-2024-house
who won:
John Mannion
accuracy:
100
baseline:
0
race name:
2024 U.S. House election in New York's district 22
decided in the:
general
they said:
John Mannion
days before the vote when called:
10
difficulty:
1.01
the winner's party:
Democratic
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2024-11-05
the result is:
certified
the party they named:
Democratic
Think this is wrong?
Race WinnersOct 25, 2024
“we moved California's 13th District, congressman John Duarte, a Republican, out of toss-up into tilt Democratic. That would be a flip.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+101 skill
How this was scored
right:
yes
race:
2024-house-ca-13
election year:
2024
skill:
101
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Republican
in their words:
tilt Democratic
result from:
wikipedia-2024-house
who won:
Adam Gray
accuracy:
100
baseline:
0
race name:
2024 U.S. House election in California's district 13
decided in the:
general
they said:
Adam Gray
days before the vote when called:
10
difficulty:
1.01
the winner's party:
Democratic
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2024-11-05
the result is:
certified
the party they named:
Democratic
Think this is wrong?
Race WinnersOct 25, 2024
“in Texas' 34th District, we moved congressman Vicente Gonzalez, a democrat, from likely Democratic to lean Democratic”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skill
How this was scored
right:
yes
race:
2024-house-tx-34
election year:
2024
skill:
0
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Democratic
in their words:
lean Democratic
result from:
wikipedia-2024-house
who won:
Vicente Gonzalez
accuracy:
100
baseline:
100
race name:
2024 U.S. House election in Texas's district 34
decided in the:
general
they said:
Vicente Gonzalez
days before the vote when called:
10
difficulty:
1.01
the winner's party:
Democratic
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2024-11-05
the result is:
certified
the party they named:
Democratic
Think this is wrong?
Race WinnersOct 25, 2024
“the the rating changed, from likely Republican to lean Republican. So one click less favorable to Deb Fischer, the incumbent senator... We still clearly see Fisher as favored.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skill
How this was scored
right:
yes
race:
2024-senate-ne
election year:
2024
skill:
0
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Republican
in their words:
lean Republican
result from:
wikipedia-2024-senate
who won:
Deb Fischer
accuracy:
100
baseline:
100
race name:
2024 U.S. Senate election in Nebraska
decided in the:
general
they said:
Deb Fischer
days before the vote when called:
10
difficulty:
1.01
the winner's party:
Republican
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2024-11-05
the result is:
certified
the party they named:
Republican
Think this is wrong?

More race winners

The same kind of call, about other players and teams.