Jacob Rubashkin· Nov 1, 2024

Rubashkin said Republicans are still favored to take the Senate, rated Iowa's 1st District tilt Democratic for Christina Bohannon, called Pennsylvania's 10th tilt Republican and Maryland's 3rd a near-certain Democratic hold for Sarah Elfreth, and said he would still rather be Harris than Trump in the presidential race.

“Republicans are still favored to take control of the senate this year.”

said on air, transcribed by us · The Inside Elections Podcast · read the original →

5 checkable claims — 4 race winners and 1 chamber control — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing bet.

All 5 have settled, averaging 60 out of 100, against 60 for a naive guess at the same calls.

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5 checkable claims in this take

Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.

Race WinnersNov 1, 2024
“I think Harris... You'd still rather be Harris than Trump at this point.”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skill
How this was scored
right:
no
race:
2024-president
election year:
2024
skill:
0
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Democratic
in their words:
You'd still rather be Harris than Trump at this point
result from:
fec-2024-president
who won:
Donald Trump
accuracy:
0
baseline:
0
race name:
2024 U.S. presidential election
decided in the:
electoral-college
they said:
Kamala Harris
days before the vote when called:
3
difficulty:
1
the winner's party:
Republican
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2024-11-05
the result is:
certified
the party they named:
Democratic
Think this is wrong?
Race WinnersNov 1, 2024
“Those were two ads from Iowa's 1st Congressional District, which we moved from toss-up to tilt Democratic.”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 100-100 skill
How this was scored
right:
no
race:
2024-house-ia-01
election year:
2024
skill:
-100
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Republican
in their words:
tilt Democratic
result from:
wikipedia-2024-house
who won:
Mariannette Miller-Meeks
accuracy:
0
baseline:
100
race name:
2024 U.S. House election in Iowa's district 1
decided in the:
general
they said:
Christina Bohannan
days before the vote when called:
3
difficulty:
1
the winner's party:
Republican
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2024-11-05
the result is:
certified
the party they named:
Democratic
Think this is wrong?
Chamber ControlNov 1, 2024
“Like you said, Republicans are still favored to take control of the senate this year.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+100 skill
How this was scored
right:
yes
election year:
2024
skill:
100
topic:
elections
in their words:
Republicans are still favored to take control of the senate this year
result from:
senate: United States Senate, Party Division (https://www.senate.gov/history/partydiv.htm)
chamber:
2024-senate
who controls it:
Republican
accuracy:
100
baseline:
0
they said:
Republican
days before the vote when called:
3
difficulty:
1
the naive guess:
the party in control going in keeps it
Election Day:
2024-11-05
who controlled it before:
Democratic
Think this is wrong?
Race WinnersNov 1, 2024
“as of next year, we'll almost certainly be represented by Democrat Sarah Elfreth”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skill
How this was scored
right:
yes
race:
2024-house-md-03
election year:
2024
skill:
0
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Democratic
in their words:
almost certainly
result from:
wikipedia-2024-house
who won:
Sarah Elfreth
accuracy:
100
baseline:
100
race name:
2024 U.S. House election in Maryland's district 3
decided in the:
general
they said:
Sarah Elfreth
days before the vote when called:
3
difficulty:
1
the winner's party:
Democratic
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2024-11-05
the result is:
certified
the party they named:
Democratic
Think this is wrong?
Race WinnersNov 1, 2024
“A a a tilt Republican district in our ratings.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skill
How this was scored
right:
yes
race:
2024-house-pa-10
election year:
2024
skill:
0
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Republican
in their words:
tilt Republican
result from:
wikipedia-2024-house
who won:
Scott Perry
accuracy:
100
baseline:
100
race name:
2024 U.S. House election in Pennsylvania's district 10
decided in the:
general
they said:
Scott Perry
days before the vote when called:
3
difficulty:
1
the winner's party:
Republican
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2024-11-05
the result is:
certified
the party they named:
Republican
Think this is wrong?

More race winners

The same kind of call, about other players and teams.