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Writes at The Downballot (podcast)
Is Jeff Singer accurate? Across 9 graded calls in 1 article, Jeff Singer scores 93.75% accuracy and a MissedTakes Score of 0.76, which means their calls were better than a naive guess on the same claims. That is a provisional record, fewer than ten graded articles, so the numbers are not yet meaningful and they are not ranked on the leaderboard.
Fewer than 10 graded articles. Treat this as provisional.
100% of their claims were specific enough to check. Most of what they said committed to something.
Every number here is computed from the published methodology, and every call below shows its own arithmetic.
“it's more complicated in Ohio because Donald Trump, he's going to carry the state again. This isn't a swing state anymore.”
“So Donald Trump, he's almost certainly gonna carry Texas... there's really little question Trump's gonna carry Texas.”
“Trump won 53 to 43% in Alaska in 2020. He's likely to do about the same here, so Peltola really does need a lot of crossover support.”
“democrats really have not had much success in Indiana a long time, and Trump's going to easily carry the third time”
“So in all likelihood, this will be a win for Braun, but we're keeping an eye on it. This could be an upset.”
“but it's Montana. It's a dark red state that Trump's going to win by a lot.”
“it makes sense for them to try to pull off an upset, but still much rather be frozen [Rosen].”
“even though Democrats are likely to carry the Omaha blue dot in its electoral vote”
“because Nebraska, even though Democrats are likely to carry the Omaha blue dot in its electoral vote, they're likely to sweep the state again as a whole by double digits”