The Downballot (podcast)

And now it is back to its safely blue prior status, which means that Cleaver, who to his immense credit said he was gonna keep running no matter what, gets to run-in his old familiar district and is a lock in November.

That's pretty much the one example that Tester has to point to... There's a lot of other races where it hasn't worked, so it's not impossible, but I think nobody should be expecting it.

So Republicans have one safe flip in their favor. They're almost certainly going to take the West Virginia Senate seat that Joe Manchin previously held.

it's more complicated in Ohio because Donald Trump, he's going to carry the state again. This isn't a swing state anymore.

So Donald Trump, he's almost certainly gonna carry Texas... there's really little question Trump's gonna carry Texas.

Trump won 53 to 43% in Alaska in 2020. He's likely to do about the same here, so Peltola really does need a lot of crossover support.

democrats really have not had much success in Indiana a long time, and Trump's going to easily carry the third time

So in all likelihood, this will be a win for Braun, but we're keeping an eye on it. This could be an upset.

but it's Montana. It's a dark red state that Trump's going to win by a lot.

it makes sense for them to try to pull off an upset, but still much rather be frozen [Rosen].

even though Democrats are likely to carry the Omaha blue dot in its electoral vote

because Nebraska, even though Democrats are likely to carry the Omaha blue dot in its electoral vote, they're likely to sweep the state again as a whole by double digits