Jeff Singer· Nov 1, 2024
Singer previewed the key races, predicting Mike Braun most likely wins the Indiana governorship and that Trump carries Indiana, Ohio, Texas, Montana and Alaska, with Republicans sweeping Nebraska statewide by double digits while Democrats take the Omaha 'blue dot' electoral vote. He also suggested Republicans would rather be in Jacky Rosen's position in Nevada.
“So in all likelihood, this will be a win for Braun, but we're keeping an eye on it.”
said on air, transcribed by us · The Downballot (podcast) · read the original →
9 checkable claims — 8 race winners and 1 race margin — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing bet.
All 9 have settled, averaging 88.9 out of 100, against 98.4 for a naive guess at the same calls.
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9 checkable claims in this take
Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.
- Race MarginsNov 1, 2024
“because Nebraska, even though Democrats are likely to carry the Omaha blue dot in its electoral vote, they're likely to sweep the state again as a whole by double digits”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 86+14.14 skillHow this was scored
- race:
- 2024-president-ne
- election year:
- 2024
- skill:
- 14.14
- topic:
- elections
- what happened:
- 20.46
- in their words:
- sweep the state again as a whole by double digits
- result from:
- fec-2024-president
- who won:
- Donald Trump
- zero credit this far off:
- 10
- what they counted:
- margin_points
- whose number:
- Donald Trump
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 86
- race name:
- 2024 U.S. presidential election in Nebraska
- decided in the:
- general
- days before the vote when called:
- 4
- difficulty:
- 1.01
- they won:
- yes
- the naive guess:
- the seat's previous margin, or a tie when we do not hold it
- Election Day:
- 2024-11-05
- the certified margin:
- 20.46
- their party:
- Republican
- their range:
- 10,100
- the naive guess said:
- 19.06
- Race WinnersNov 1, 2024
“even though Democrats are likely to carry the Omaha blue dot in its electoral vote”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 100-101 skillHow this was scored
- right:
- no
- race:
- 2024-president-ne
- election year:
- 2024
- skill:
- -101
- topic:
- elections
- held going in by:
- Republican
- in their words:
- likely to carry the Omaha blue dot in its electoral vote
- result from:
- fec-2024-president
- who won:
- Donald Trump
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 100
- race name:
- 2024 U.S. presidential election in Nebraska
- decided in the:
- general
- they said:
- Kamala Harris
- days before the vote when called:
- 4
- difficulty:
- 1.01
- the winner's party:
- Republican
- the naive guess:
- the party holding the seat keeps it
- Election Day:
- 2024-11-05
- the result is:
- certified
- the party they named:
- Democratic
- Race WinnersNov 1, 2024
“it makes sense for them to try to pull off an upset, but still much rather be frozen [Rosen].”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skillHow this was scored
- right:
- yes
- race:
- 2024-senate-nv
- election year:
- 2024
- skill:
- 0
- topic:
- elections
- held going in by:
- Democratic
- in their words:
- still much rather be Rosen
- result from:
- wikipedia-2024-senate
- who won:
- Jacky S. Rosen
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 100
- race name:
- 2024 U.S. Senate election in Nevada
- decided in the:
- general
- they said:
- Jacky S. Rosen
- days before the vote when called:
- 4
- difficulty:
- 1.01
- the winner's party:
- Democratic
- the naive guess:
- the party holding the seat keeps it
- Election Day:
- 2024-11-05
- the result is:
- certified
- the party they named:
- Democratic
- Race WinnersNov 1, 2024
“Trump won 53 to 43% in Alaska in 2020. He's likely to do about the same here, so Peltola really does need a lot of crossover support.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skillHow this was scored
- right:
- yes
- race:
- 2024-president-ak
- election year:
- 2024
- skill:
- 0
- topic:
- elections
- held going in by:
- Republican
- in their words:
- likely to do about the same
- result from:
- fec-2024-president
- who won:
- Donald Trump
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 100
- race name:
- 2024 U.S. presidential election in Alaska
- decided in the:
- general
- they said:
- Donald Trump
- days before the vote when called:
- 4
- difficulty:
- 1.01
- the winner's party:
- Republican
- the naive guess:
- the party holding the seat keeps it
- Election Day:
- 2024-11-05
- the result is:
- certified
- the party they named:
- Republican
- Race WinnersNov 1, 2024
“but it's Montana. It's a dark red state that Trump's going to win by a lot.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skillHow this was scored
- right:
- yes
- race:
- 2024-president-mt
- election year:
- 2024
- skill:
- 0
- topic:
- elections
- held going in by:
- Republican
- in their words:
- win by a lot
- result from:
- fec-2024-president
- who won:
- Donald Trump
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 100
- race name:
- 2024 U.S. presidential election in Montana
- decided in the:
- general
- they said:
- Donald Trump
- days before the vote when called:
- 4
- difficulty:
- 1.01
- the winner's party:
- Republican
- the naive guess:
- the party holding the seat keeps it
- Election Day:
- 2024-11-05
- the result is:
- certified
- the party they named:
- Republican
- Race WinnersNov 1, 2024
“So Donald Trump, he's almost certainly gonna carry Texas... there's really little question Trump's gonna carry Texas.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skillHow this was scored
- right:
- yes
- race:
- 2024-president-tx
- election year:
- 2024
- skill:
- 0
- topic:
- elections
- held going in by:
- Republican
- in their words:
- almost certainly
- result from:
- fec-2024-president
- who won:
- Donald Trump
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 100
- race name:
- 2024 U.S. presidential election in Texas
- decided in the:
- general
- they said:
- Donald Trump
- days before the vote when called:
- 4
- difficulty:
- 1.01
- the winner's party:
- Republican
- the naive guess:
- the party holding the seat keeps it
- Election Day:
- 2024-11-05
- the result is:
- certified
- the party they named:
- Republican
- Race WinnersNov 1, 2024
“it's more complicated in Ohio because Donald Trump, he's going to carry the state again. This isn't a swing state anymore.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skillHow this was scored
- right:
- yes
- race:
- 2024-president-oh
- election year:
- 2024
- skill:
- 0
- topic:
- elections
- held going in by:
- Republican
- result from:
- fec-2024-president
- who won:
- Donald Trump
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 100
- race name:
- 2024 U.S. presidential election in Ohio
- decided in the:
- general
- they said:
- Donald Trump
- days before the vote when called:
- 4
- difficulty:
- 1.01
- the winner's party:
- Republican
- the naive guess:
- the party holding the seat keeps it
- Election Day:
- 2024-11-05
- the result is:
- certified
- the party they named:
- Republican
- Race WinnersNov 1, 2024
“So in all likelihood, this will be a win for Braun, but we're keeping an eye on it. This could be an upset.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skillHow this was scored
- right:
- yes
- race:
- 2024-governor-in
- election year:
- 2024
- skill:
- 0
- topic:
- elections
- held going in by:
- Republican
- in their words:
- in all likelihood
- result from:
- wikipedia-2024-governor
- who won:
- Mike Braun
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 100
- race name:
- 2024 Indiana gubernatorial election
- decided in the:
- general
- they said:
- Mike Braun
- days before the vote when called:
- 4
- difficulty:
- 1.01
- the winner's party:
- Republican
- the naive guess:
- the party holding the seat keeps it
- Election Day:
- 2024-11-05
- the result is:
- certified
- the party they named:
- Republican
- Race WinnersNov 1, 2024
“democrats really have not had much success in Indiana a long time, and Trump's going to easily carry the third time”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skillHow this was scored
- right:
- yes
- race:
- 2024-president-in
- election year:
- 2024
- skill:
- 0
- topic:
- elections
- held going in by:
- Republican
- in their words:
- easily carry
- result from:
- fec-2024-president
- who won:
- Donald Trump
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 100
- race name:
- 2024 U.S. presidential election in Indiana
- decided in the:
- general
- they said:
- Donald Trump
- days before the vote when called:
- 4
- difficulty:
- 1.01
- the winner's party:
- Republican
- the naive guess:
- the party holding the seat keeps it
- Election Day:
- 2024-11-05
- the result is:
- certified
- the party they named:
- Republican
More race winners
The same kind of call, about other players and teams.
- Erick-Woods EricksonRace WinnersHit · 100Writing as returns came in on election night, he declared that Republicans would control the Senate, with the size of the majority still unsettled, and said Jon Tester was expected to lose his Montana seat within hours.
- Erick-Woods EricksonRace WinnersHit · 100Writing on election night, he judged Trump to be on the brink of winning the presidency, and called Georgia and North Carolina for him.
- Carl CannonRace WinnersHit · 100Cannon said he half expects Republicans to take the Senate, treated the West Virginia seat as already lost to Democrats with Manchin leaving, and said Trump is poised to carry Ohio.
- Lanny DavisRace WinnersMiss · 0Davis argued that the closing campaign narrative turned negative for Trump, leaving him optimistic that Kamala Harris would win the presidency.
- Sam WangRace WinnersMiss · 0Live-blogging election night, Wang called Iowa for Trump by 12 points, said the presidential race was headed toward Trump, and read partial House returns as showing Democratic pickups in five districts and Republican pickups in two, with overall House control still undetermined.
- Steve DeaceRace WinnersHit · 100On Election Day, Deace said he believes Trump will win the presidency, and that rather than a split decision across the seven battleground states, one candidate will sweep five, six or all of them. He also took the 'over' on Trump exceeding his 2016 popular-vote share of 46%.